Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday July 24th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 50 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
The Bank of Canada updates its monetary policy at 9:45 AM EDT. A press conference is offered at 10:30 AM EDT. Consensus calls for a 0.25% cut in its rate offered to major banks to 4.50%.
Alphabet $GOOGL dropped $6.54 to $175.25 after reporting less than consensus second quarter YouTube revenues.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Texas Instruments gained $8.51 to $206.79 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results. The company also offered positive guidance for the third quarter.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0021-9.png "clip_image002[1]")
Tesla dropped $4.68 to $241.70 after reporting less than consensus second quarter earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0031-8.png "clip_image003[1]")
Visa dropped $7.54 to $257.25 after reporting less than consensus fiscal third quarter results.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0041-8.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for July 24th
Existing Home Sales show the weakest June change on record and prices are becoming vulnerable to pulling back, potentially impacting the wealth effect in the economy.
https://equityclock.com/2024/07/23/stock-market-outlook-for-july-24-2024/
Technical Notes
Lockheed Martin $LMT moved above $490.86 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Triggered a move by Aerospace & Defense iShares above $137.19 to an all-time high.
General Electric Aerospace $GE an S&P 100 stock moved above $170.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Danaher $DHR an S&P 100 stock moved above $268.82 extending an intermediate uptrend.
BHP $BHP one of the world’s largest base metals producer moved below$54.81 resuming an intermediate downtrend
Paccar $PCAR a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $99.46 resuming an intermediate downtrend.
United Parcel Services $UPS an S&P 100 stock moved below $129.23 to a four year low extending an intermediate downtrend.
First Quantum Minerals $FM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$15.82 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 23rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 23rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 23rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
The Stock Market is Bracing for Earnings IMPACT! David Keller
The Stock Market is Bracing for Earnings IMPACT! – YouTube
BofA’s Savita Subramanian on why we are heading into a ‘tricky’ part of the year
BofA’s Savita Subramanian on why we are heading into a ‘tricky’ part of the year – YouTube
The market is due for a pullback: Brian Belski
The market is due for a pullback: Brian Belski – YouTube
What Earnings Reveal About The Market: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth
What Earnings Reveal About The Market – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.80 to 67.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.00 to 73.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.98 to 74.78. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged at 82.74. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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July 24th, 2024 at 12:42 pm
Correction underway?
July 24th, 2024 at 1:39 pm
#!
Looks that way but too soon to tell for sure. I’ll just stand back and watch………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29947045329&a=1581235834
July 24th, 2024 at 3:54 pm
IMO everyone’s taking money off the table looking at the calendar and elevated levels on charts. I find the surge in small caps interesting in that most of them really aren’t making much in the way of earnings but you have the idea of interest rate cuts benefiting companies with high debt. On top of that these stocks were heavily shorted and being small caps the exit door is small. Money is looking for some place to go and came out of an extended tech sector into a beaten down small cap sector. Selling now seems to be very broad based but most heavily in tech which led up and now is leading down. Small caps and the home builders are being hit as well. IMO odds are this is not over today. You have some defensive stocks up like telecom and health care.
July 24th, 2024 at 4:17 pm
Bman/Van
Thanks for your comments #10 yesterday. I agree with you that seasonality does not always happen and I have said before on this site that seasonality is possibly the last thing that I consider. However, I realize that seasonality is the basic premise for this site and it can provide tailwinds when it coincides with other factors.
I am grateful to our hosts for providing this platform where we can debate these subjects.
July 24th, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for you comments and chart on #14 yesterday. Yes, you are right, no volume on XBM.TO but it still works if there are buys on TECK and FCX, which are not there currently. XBM has a lower price point so I can buy more of it than either TECK or FCX and save my USD for something else.
Yes, as you say, price is at support around the 200EMA BUT the possible head and shoulders pattern and recent steep price drop makes me want to wait. Also, the third largest component of this ETF is BHP, which, as Don notes above, has resumed an intermediate downtrend. And FM, which is the 5th largest stock in this ETF has completed a double top pattern.
With the RSI 6 or 8, I think it would be important to stay consistent and not flip between different RSI numbers.
July 24th, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Paula
I’ve found even though I can be impulsive at times, the old saying “better paranoid than naïve” has taught me to be cautious. As far as the RSI 6 or 8 goes I’ve found it is just a measure of momentum and if I see crossovers back above the 30 line or back below the 70 line I’ll use which ever is the best signal for a “price” reversal. The RSI 8 is the most consistent with Daily charts and the RSI 6 often has multiple crossovers especially in choppy markets so isn’t always the best one to use. But some stocks have weak momentum. Maybe the RSI 7 is the best, lol. Doesn’t really matter as it’s the crossovers that signal a price reversal. I’ll have to play around with that again now that it is on my mind. The key point is to let the RSI determine the best buy or sell signal with RSI not the trader. Looking back at a 2-3 year chart with the RSI signals marked helps determine this as a Lepard doesn’t change it’s spots.
July 24th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
Paula
Here is TECK/B.to. Note how price support held at the $61-$62 level!. Many traders buy support and sell resistance. Lots of traders trade that way and use nothing else. That does tell you it’s good place to exit a short or a good place to get long (with a stop loss in place). Or stand aside.
https://schrts.co/fuHQsWup
July 24th, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for the RSI discussion. For me, RSI is not enough. It is just one indicator in the toolbox, but I appreciate that tool and your confidence in it.
Thanks for the TECK/B.TO chart. I have been burned on this stock in the distant past and don’t trust it but I don’t mind having it in an ETF. I realize that may be irrational. Have you ever looked at a 20-year chart of this thing?
https://schrts.co/TdSmcdHp
July 24th, 2024 at 8:39 pm
Paula
I don’t base every trade on the RSI 8 either. Price action is important.Buying price support on a test is important but will often see the RSI 8 below the 30 line too will be tempting. I like to see bad news with price not selling off. That tells me what the traders are doing.
July 24th, 2024 at 8:43 pm
Paula
TECK/B.to has always been a basket case that likes to trash traders. Best to stay away from. I’m posting from my phone as I don’t have my old lap top handy anymore.
July 24th, 2024 at 8:59 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for the replies. Always lots of ways to look at charts…but hard to do on phone. LOL
July 24th, 2024 at 9:09 pm
Paula
Decades ago traders I spoke with all traded differently. But mainly with buy support/sell resistance. Easy way to trade without complicating things.
July 24th, 2024 at 11:27 pm
Re #1 and #2
Correction likely for the market weight under way, but need more information to determine if this is going to spread to the equal weight. As mentioned yesterday somewhere between this week and next we will get a confirmation. The question on my mind is will the market weight correct more than the equal weight, time will tell.