Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 2nd
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 98 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures dropped 41 points following release of the U.S. July Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for July Non-farm Payrolls was a drop to 185,000 from a downwardly revised 179,000 in June. Actual was 114,000. Consensus for July Unemployment Rate was unchanged from June at 4.1%. Actual was an increase to 4.3%. Consensus for July Average Hourly Earnings was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.3% increase in June. Actual was a 0.2% increase.
Apple added $1.95 to $220.31 following release of quarterly results
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0015.png "clip_image001[5]")
Snap plunged $2.30 to $10.50 after reporting less than consensus quarterly results.
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0025.png "clip_image002[5]")
Amazon dropped $12.48 to $171.59 following release of lower than consensus second quarter revenues
![clip_image003[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0035.png "clip_image003[5]")
Intel plunged $5.40 to $23.65 following release of less than consensus quarterly results. The company also suspended its dividend.
![clip_image004[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0045.png "clip_image004[5]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Comment for August 2nd
This is an emerging risk-off market. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/08/01/stock-market-outlook-for-august-2-2024/
Next Report
Next report is released on Monday August 5th (despite the holiday in Canada).
Technical Notes
Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved above $73.37 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Led by a breakout by American Electric Power $AEP on a move above $99.38 to an all-time high.
Eurozone iShares $EZU moved below $48.06 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Vietnam ETF $VNM moved below $11.84 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Intel on a move below $24.73, CDW Corp on a move below $212.48,
Dollar Tree on a move below $101.83.
Agnico-Eagle Mines $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$106.79 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Enbridge $ENB.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$51.93 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
CAE $CAE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$23.74 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 1st 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 1st 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 1st t 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
NVDA POPS as Fed Hints at First Cut in September: David Keller
NVDA POPS as Fed Hints at First Cut in September – YouTube
Global oil inventories reached record deficit: Nuttall
Global oil inventories reached record deficit: Nuttall – YouTube
‘Painful’ Fed Announcement; Labor Market To Collapse Unless This Happens Quickly — with David Lin
Fed’s Admission Spells Big-Time TROUBLE Ahead! Tom Bowley
Fed’s Admission Spells Big-Time TROUBLE Ahead! – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.40 to 64.60. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 5.20 to 74.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.85 to 69.03. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.65 to 78.76. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 2nd, 2024 at 9:38 am
Everything turned on a dime yesterday based on a weak economic report. I was in the gym looking at a TV monitor and everything was great. By the time I got home the you know what had hit the fan. That’s it until we complete a major correction.
August 2nd, 2024 at 11:37 am
Pay attention to what goes down the most and what goes down the least and what makes an attempt to recover. I said to my wife that the stock I am most secure in is NVDA.
August 2nd, 2024 at 2:05 pm
Very interesting..I will keep an eye on it.
Thanks Larry
Cheers,Pat
August 2nd, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Larry, still too early to call a bottom. Likely another 200 pts on the S&P, but with the potential for the yield curve to steepen, this could be just the beginning. Ron, too bad I did not short more when all the RSI’s for the banks were oversold, with today’s move it’s becoming much more interesting. From a macro perspective, we could finally get the long awaited recession to wash out the market.
August 3rd, 2024 at 12:01 am
NVDA broke $117 support and today tested the 2024 uptrendline successfully. A break below that uptrendline would see price test price support at $97. I don’t’ think anything is the “Belle of the Ball” anymore. Keep in mind last year the price range on this stock was $39 to $50 And before that price range was between $10 and $34.
https://schrts.co/bTjfBRmn
https://schrts.co/vfzasbRa
August 4th, 2024 at 2:52 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks as usual for your charts and perspective.
In case, anyone is feeling like it is time to panic, here is Ciovacco’s weekly video:
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes
It’s less than 30 minutes long, so worth the time to listen to.
TLT is looking bullish but overbought at the moment:
https://schrts.co/WhfViVAs
August 4th, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Bman/Van,
Did you mean that the RSI’s for the banks were overbought when you shorted them? Do you use puts for shorting or reverse ETF’s or out right shorting. I wonder because the latter obliges you to pay the dividends, which are substantial.
August 4th, 2024 at 4:41 pm
Paula
Thanksfor the link.Haven’t had time to listen yet but the guy is worth listening to.
August 4th, 2024 at 11:52 pm
Paula
Here is TD.to WEEKLY CHART. Note how many more signals (and accurate ones) you get with the RSI 5 indicator on the WEEKLY CHART. Those longer term charts need a shorter RSI than the Daily charts.
https://schrts.co/bEaMAsjX
August 5th, 2024 at 2:15 am
Hi Paula
Confirm, I meant the RSI’s for the CAD banks were overbought when I shorted them. When I short it’s either puts or shorting a share directly. My experience in shorting an EFT is returns are less certain. Partly I feel this is due to the ETF has a number of stocks which can mean less of a direction unless the whole industry is going only one way. Most recently, (RBC) kept running new highs, while the technicals of (BMO, TD) were degrading. Ideally, short shares that don’t have a dividend (AC) given you could be on the hook for future dividends, but if you were shorting BNS (for example), I would be paying attention as well to ex-dividend dates to limit the potential downside. Puts tend to be better for crystalizing (and limiting) exposure to future dividends, but the liquidity and opportunity are smaller on the TSX (limited to TSX 60 vs not so much an issue in the US).
August 5th, 2024 at 2:19 am
Based on what I am seeing in the futures market tonight, we look to be running towards the 200 mda on the S&P 500 this week. What will be of interest is if the 200 mda holds or are we looking at a situation of the yield curve steeping and the potential for up to a 35% downwards move (so 25% more to go down in the next couple months). As I look at BNN S&P 500 futures are down 154!