I am not so sure the next leg down will be so light, likely much larger as a number of things are not adding up. Gold is outperforming the QQQ’s, VIX came down way too fast and is basically back to complacency levels, bonds, REIT’s, tech, utilities are the best performing areas (which are very defensive) and the economic news will continue to be more bearish for the balance of 2024 (there will still be some bullish points but they will diminish as we get later into winter). Best guess is we will either confirm a top this week at a lower high or in the next 2 weeks a retest of the market top before over the cliff we jump. Saw an interesting discussion on Friday on BNN with Larry McDonald, his points about the US treasury bills should be noted.
August 18th, 2024 at 8:26 pm
I am not so sure the next leg down will be so light, likely much larger as a number of things are not adding up. Gold is outperforming the QQQ’s, VIX came down way too fast and is basically back to complacency levels, bonds, REIT’s, tech, utilities are the best performing areas (which are very defensive) and the economic news will continue to be more bearish for the balance of 2024 (there will still be some bullish points but they will diminish as we get later into winter). Best guess is we will either confirm a top this week at a lower high or in the next 2 weeks a retest of the market top before over the cliff we jump. Saw an interesting discussion on Friday on BNN with Larry McDonald, his points about the US treasury bills should be noted.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/trading-day/2024/08/16/economy-not-going-back-to-normal-larry-mcdonald/