Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 16th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 future were down 5 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures were unchanged following release of the September Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an improvement to -3.90 from -4.70 in August. Actual was an improvement to +11.5.
Pfizer added $0.11 to $29.27 after announcing that a drug for a deadly cancer that causes weight loss shows positive trial data.
Air Canada is expected to open higher after reaching an agreement with its pilot union averting a strike.
Alcoa added $0.46 to $32.98 after selling its Saudi Arabia venture stake for $1.1 billion.
Mosaic dropped $0.46 to $32.98 after guiding to lower third quarter potash/phosphate volumes.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for September 16th
The weakest period of the year for stocks is directly ahead, but three influences could work to mitigate this seasonal threat. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/09/14/stock-market-outlook-for-september-16-2024/
The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on the FOMC’s economic statement released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.25%.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings are expected to slip to a 4.9% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 5.3% year-over-year increase (versus a 4.8% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus calls for a 15.4% increase in earnings and a 5.3% increase in revenues (versus 5.4% increase last week).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.2% earnings increase (versus a 10.1% increase last week) and 5.1% revenue increase.
Earnings gains remain elevated in 2025. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.0 % on a year-over-year basis (versus 14.4% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.8% (versus a 5.9% gain last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 14.1% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.4% and revenues are expected to increase 6.0%.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
September Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to improve to -3.90 from -4.70 in August.
August U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.0% in July. Excluding food and energy, August Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in July.
August Canadian Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in July.
August U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 77.9% from 77.8% in July. August Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.6% decline in July.
July Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in June.
August U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 1.250 million units from 1.238 million units in July.
FOMC Economic Statement released at 2:00 PM EDT is expected to announce a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.25% from 5.50%.
September Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to +2.4 from -7.0 in August.
August Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 3.85 million units from 3.95 million units in July.
August Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to improve to -0.3% from -0.6% in July.
Canadian July Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% decline in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Wednesday: General Mills, KB Homes
Thursday: FedEx, Lennar, Darden Restaurants
Trader’s Corner
See price chart in Technical Notes below
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 13th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 13th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 13th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 14th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Investors should be cautious in second half due to front-loaded 2024 gains, says Wells Fargo’s Cronk
What a Harris or Trump Presidency Looks Like for the Markets
What a Harris or Trump Presidency Looks Like for the Markets – YouTube
Did We Just Have a “Weird Wally Wednesday”? Mark Leibovit
Did We Just Have a “Weird Wally Wednesday”? – HoweStreet
Bitcoin – Higher Low Could Be Forming – Wyckoff Crypto Discord – 9.11.2024
Bitcoin – Higher Low Could Be Forming – Wyckoff Crypto Discord – 9.11.2024 – YouTube
Here’s My Most-Likely Scenario for QQQ: David Keller
Here’s My Most-Likely Scenario for QQQ | The Mindful Investor w/ David Keller, CMT | StockCharts.com
September: Exit Light, Enter Night: Tom Bowley
September: Exit Light, Enter Night | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com
Gold, Gold, Gold: Bob Hoye
Trading Desk Notes for September 14, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for September 14, 2024 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop for Sept. 16th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
Technical Notes for Friday
Silver bullion ETN $SLV moved above US$27.46 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Silver Miners ETF $SIL moved above $34.22 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ moved above $49.13 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P/TSX Gold iShares $XGD.TO moved above Cdn$23.70 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Barrick Gold $ABX a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$28.26 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Agnico-Eagle $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$112.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Waste Connections $WCN.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$251.70 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
GE Aerospace $GE an S&P 100 stock moved above $177.20 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.00 on Friday and gained 13.80 last week to 72.80. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 2.80 on Friday and gained 6.00 last week to 74.20. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.77 on Friday and jumped 20.80 last week to 65.93. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 2.21 on Friday and gained 11.51 last week to 72.57. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications