Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 23rd
U.S. equity index futures were high
er this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 10 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
WTI crude oil gained $0.10 to $71.10 per barrel in response to escalating conflicts in the Middle East.
Constellation Energy added another $7.62 to $262.60 following news that the company has reached an agreement with Microsoft to provide additional power from its Three Mile Island complex.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/clip_image0021-5.png "clip_image002[1]")
Uranium Energy added $0.11 to $5.65 after acquiring Rio Tinto’s uranium assets in Wyoming.
Intel advanced $0.82 to $22.66 after receiving an offer from Apollo to invest $5 billion into the company.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/clip_image0041-4.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for September 23rd
Dow Theory is failing to confirm the new highs and bullish trend in many of the broad market benchmarks given the capped performance of transportation stocks from the past few years. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/09/21/stock-market-outlook-for-september-23-2024/
The Bottom Line
All-time highs were recorded by the S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index following the FOMC’s decision to lower its Fed Fund Rate by 0.50%. Positive technical action following the decision contributed to index strength. “Risk on” sectors (technology, materials, industrials and Consumer Discretionary) led the advance.
History calls for a volatile/mixed trend for North American equity prices during Presidential Election years from mid-September until mid-October. What about this year? Uncertainty remains high: Recent polls from key swing states show a “dead heat” for election of the President and control over the Senate and House of Representatives.
Third quarter results by major U.S. and Canadian companies will add to investor uncertainty between now and mid-October. Note word of caution below.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Earnings and revenue estimates for remainder of 2024 and 2025 were lowered slightly last week
A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to slip to a 4.6% increase (versus a 4.9% increase last week). Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 4.7% year-over-year increase (versus a 5.3% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus calls for a 15.0% increase in earnings (versus a 15.4% increase last week) and a 5.2% revenue increase (versus a 5.3% increase last week).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.0% earnings increase (versus a 10.2% increase last week) and 5.0% revenue increase (versus a 5.1% increase last week).
Earnings gains remain elevated in 2025, but at a slightly lower rate. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 14.6 % on a year-over-year basis (versus a 15.0% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.6% (versus a 5.8% gain last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.2% (versus a 14.1% gain last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.6% (versus 5.7% last week). For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.2% (versus a 15.4% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.9% (versus 6.0% last week)
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks at 1:00 PM EDT on Tuesday
U.S. August New Home Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to drop to 700,000 from 739,000 in July.
August Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to decline 2.8% versus a 9.9% gain in July (impacted by Boeing)
Next estimate of annualized second quarter real GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to grow at 3.0% versus a gain of 1.4% in the first quarter.
August PCE Price Index and Core August PCE Price Index are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday.
August Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in July. August Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% gain in July.
July Canadian GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to be unchanged versus unchanged in June.
September Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 69.0 from 67.9 in August.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Quiet week! Only seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 20th 2024 
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Maximize Your Trades with These MACD/ADX Combos: Joe Rabil
Maximize Your Trades with These MACD/ADX Combos – YouTube
5 Hidden Gem AI Stocks to Buy Now: Zachs
5 Hidden Gem AI Stocks to Buy Now – YouTube
IS THE FED RATE CUT A WARNING? Mark Leibovit
Is The Fed Rate Cut A Warning? – HoweStreet
‘The greatest equity investor of all time’ is trying to warn you, Jim Grant says
‘The greatest equity investor of all time’ is trying to warn you, Jim Grant says – YouTube
The Path for Future Rate Cuts: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
The Path for Future Rate Cuts – YouTube
Mike’s Money Talks for September 21st 2024
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
What Will The Fed Rate Cut Do? Bob Hoye
What Will The Fed Rate Cut Do? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for September 21, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for September 21, 2024 – HoweStreet
WTI Crude Bottom Is In Place But May Test Those Lows Over The Coming Weeks. BUY Energy Stocks When This Test Occurs: Josef Schachter
Why Did The Fed Cut Rates? Dannielle Park
Why Did The Fed Cut Rates? – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop by David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
Technical Notes
Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved above $15.22 completing a double bottom. “Gassy” stocks on both sides of the border were notably stronger.
Nike $NKE a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $85.05 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responded to selection of a new CEO.
FedEx $FDX an S&P 100 stock moved below $272.81 completing a double top pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average plunged 3.53% following the news.
Cameco $CCJ a TSX 60 stock moved above US$44.44 completing a double bottom pattern. Energy production from the Three Mile Island nuclear facility is scheduled to resume.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.40 on Friday but gained 6.20 last week to 79.00. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.80 on Friday, but gained 2.40 last week to 76.60. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.77 on Friday, but advanced 1.54 last week to 74.34. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.88 to 76.99. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
Our Condolences
Over the weekend, we have come to learn that frequent contributor to our site Ronald Hatch (aka Ron/BC) has passed away. He was a favourite commentator among our audience and was a big part of keeping an active conversation on the daily reports. While we did not know him personally, his selflessness and passion to the art of technical analysis was readily apparent as he helped many navigate the charts and the markets. His efforts added tremendous value and we are grateful for his dedication.
According to the obituary, in lieu of flowers, donations can be made to the Heart & Stroke Foundation.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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September 23rd, 2024 at 12:15 pm
I’ve never contributed to this chat, because I’m just not smart enough, but I always enjoyed Ron/BC’s commentary and learned things from it. I for one will miss him. God bless you Ron.