Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 30th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 13 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Federal Reserve chairman Powell is scheduled to release a comment at 1:55 PM today.
Nikkei Average dropped 1,910.10 to $37,919.55 after Ishiba’s selection as Japan political leader. He noted that he plans to call for a election in Japan on October 27th
U.S. auto stock stocks moved lower after Stellates warned about Chinese auto maker competition in European. Ford dropped $0.34 to $10.78. General Motors dropped $1.78 to $44.70.
Nvidia dropped $2.88 to $118.53 after China urged local technology companies to avoid inclusion of Nvidia’s computer ships in their products.
Procter & Gamble dropped $1.05 to $172.50 after Barclays downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight.
EquityClock’s stock market outlook for September 30th
The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.1% in the month of October over the past 50 years with a frequency of gains during the month of 60%. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/09/28/stock-market-outlook-for-september-30-2024/
The Bottom Line
Greatest influence on equity markets last week was the recovery in China after the Peoples Bank of China added monetary stimulus to the economy. Chinese equity indices, ETFs and individual equities listed on North American equity markets soared. Sectors influenced by a recovery in China quickly caught the wave: North American gold, base metals, steel, forest product and agribusiness stocks and their related ETFs led the advance. Intermediate overbought U.S. and Canadian equity indices managed to move to new all-time highs.
Historically, North American equity markets during the first two weeks in October have been volatile with a slight downside bias: News this week by most major companies normally is quiet prior to release of third quarter results. Events that could influence equity markets this week include:
· Reports on impact of Hurricane Helene,
· A possible port strike on the East Coast starting on Tuesday
· Growing international tensions (particularly in the Middle East)
· Anticipation of a temporary slowdown in corporate earnings growth in the third quarter. See comment below.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Earnings and revenue estimates for remainder of 2024 and 2025 were lowered slightly last week
A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to slip to a 4.6% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues calls for a 4.8% year-over-year increase (versus a 4.7% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus calls for a 14.9% increase in earnings (versus a 15.0% increase last week) and a 5.3% revenue increase (versus a 5.2% increase last week).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.0% earnings increase and 5.1% revenue increase (versus a 5.0% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in 2025. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 14.5 % on a year-over-year basis (versus a 14.6% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (versus a 5.6% gain last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.6% (versus a 13.2% gain last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5% (versus 5.6% last week). For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.1% (versus a 15.2% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.9% (versus 6.0% last week.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Editor’s Note: Estimates were unavailable on Friday
September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index released at 9:45 AM EDT on Monday is expected to be unchanged from August at 46.1
August Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in July.
September ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to improve to 47.6 from 47.2 in August.
August Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 5.0% in July.
September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 51.8 from 51.5 in August.
U.S. September Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM on Friday are expected to increase to 144,000 from 142,000 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from August at 4.2%. September Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in August.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including one Dow Industrial Average stock: Nike). No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 28th
September 28 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 9/27/24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WH8Jz16_8A
Top Ten Charts to Watch for October 2024: David Keller
Could U.S. Stocks Crash In October? Tom Bowley
Could U.S. Stocks Crash In October? | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com
Opportunities in Industrials and Materials; Julius de Kampeneur
Opportunities in Industrials and Materials | RRG Charts | StockCharts.com
Nuclear Energy Back in Vogue: Bob Hoye
Nuclear Energy Back in Vogue – HoweStreet
The Trading Desk Notes for September 28, 2024: Victor Adair
The Trading Desk Notes for September 28, 2024 – HoweStreet
WTI Crude Down Over US$1/b On Concerns About China Demand: Josef Schachter
WTI Crude Down Over US$1/b On Concerns About China Demand – HoweStreet
This week in money: Ross Clark, Eric Hadik, Mark Leibovit
This Week in Money – HoweStreet
This Week’s "Sector to Watch" and "Industry Group to Watch": Erin Swenlin
This Week’s "Sector to Watch" and "Industry Group to Watch" | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Technical Scoop for Sept. 30th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
Technical Notes for Friday
Water Resources ETF $PHO moved above $70.28 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance on Friday extending an intermediate uptrend included: Dow $DOW on a move above $55.24, Comcast $CMCDA) on a move above $41.63, Bristol-Myers $BMY) on a move above $51.19 and Trip.com $TCOM on a move above $60.65 (to an all-time high).
Magna International $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$58.26 completing a double bottom pattern.
Dollarama $DOL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$137.72 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.60 on Friday and gained 4.60 last week to 83.60. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 2.60 on Friday and gained 5.00 last week to 81.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.45on Friday, but gained 4.14 last week to 78.48. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but gained 1.04 last week to 78.03. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications