Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 4^th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Nvidia added $2.93 to $138.30 on news that the stock will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the opening of trade on November 8^th. Nvidia will replace Intel. Intel dropped $0.31 to $22.89.

Apple dropped $1.50 to $221.41on news that Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its position in the stock.

Marriott dropped $9.48 to $251.09 after reporting less than consensus third quarter results. The company also offered cautious fourth quarter guidance.

 

EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 4^th

 

Despite the weak payroll report for October, the bond market sold off surprisingly hard, resulting in a break of rising trendline support on the Aggregate Bond Fund. See:

https://equityclock.com/2024/11/02/stock-market-outlook-for-november-4-2024/

The Bottom Line

Primary focus this week is on results from the U.S. election on November 5^th. Consensus calls for a “dead heat” for election of the President and the House of Representative and a narrow win by the Republicans for the Senate. Chances are high that final results will not be determined this week. Multiple recounts are anticipated and will be challenged. Current volatility by U.S. equity indices (based on the VIX Index) is expected to remain elevated until final results become apparent.

The other important focus this week is on the FOMC update on interest rates released on Thursday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% decline in the Fed Fund Rate.

 

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Frequency of third quarter corporate reports has passed its peak. Seventy percent (350 companies) have reported to date. Results released to date prompted analysts to raise their earnings and revenue estimates slightly. Consensus calls for a 5.1% year-over-year earnings increase (up from 3.6% last week thanks to higher than consensus results released by Meta Platforms and Amazon) and a 5.2% year-over-year revenue increase (up from 4.9% last week).

A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter earnings remains significantly lower than the 11.3% year-over-year earnings gain recorded in the second quarter.

Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.7% earnings increase (down from a 13.7% increase last week) and a 4.8% revenue increase (down from 4.9% last week).

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.3% earnings increase and 5.0% revenue increase, unchanged from last week.

Consensus for earnings gains in 2025 remains elevated, but at a slightly lower rate. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.0 % on a year-over-year basis (versus a 13.4% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.3% (versus a 5.4% increase last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.2% (versus a 12.6% gain last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5% (versus 5.3% last week). For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.1% (versus a 15.2% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (versus 5.8% last week).

 

Economic News This Week

September U.S. Factory Orders are released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday

September U.S. Trade released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to be a $71.90 deficit versus a $70.40 deficit in August.

September Canadian Trade is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday

October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to 53.3 from 54.9 in September.

Third quarter Non-farm Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to ease to 2.3% from 2.5% in the second quarter.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision released at 2:00PM EST on Thursday is expected to lower the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25%. Conference call is offered at 2:30 PM EST.

October Canadian Employment Change and October Unemployment Rate are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday

November Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to dip to 70.0 from 70.5 in October.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

 

Trader’s Corner

 

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 1^st 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 1^st 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 1^st 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 2^nd

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

 

VIX Soars As U.S. Equities Tumble: Tom Bowley

VIX Soars As U.S. Equities Tumble – YouTube

 

Dan Niles on key takeaways from Big Tech earnings:

Dan Niles on key takeaways from Big Tech earnings – YouTube

 

Cameron Dawson on Elections, Market Leadership & What 2025 May Hold For Investors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zPwNnyaXX8

 

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 11/1/24

Note comments on seasonality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5BtG7H8FR4

 

Top Ten Charts to Watch for November 2024: David Keller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_3oEW5BOsg

 

These S&P 500 Stocks Are Poised To Outperform! Mary Ellen McGonagle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79owj23tUik

 

Will it be “Different This Time” for Stock Markets? Bob Hoye

Will it be “Different This Time” for Stock Markets? – HoweStreet

 

What has More Impact than Fed Control of Interest Rates: Mark Lebovit

What has More Impact than Fed Control of Interest Rates – HoweStreet

 

Trading Desk Notes for November 2, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for November 2, 2024 – HoweStreet

 

Trump Wins, Eliminates Federal Income Tax, Economy Booms – This is Important: Martin Armstrong

Trump Wins, Eliminates Federal Income Tax, Economy Booms – This is Important – HoweStreet

 

Technical Scoop for November 4^th from Dave Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

 

Technical Notes

U.S. Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved below $12.57 to an all-time low extending an intermediate downtrend.

U.S. REIT iShares $IYR moved below $97.74 completing a double top pattern.

Chevron $CVX an S&P 100 stock moved above $152.75 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Marvell Technology $MRVL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $85.54 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Starbucks $SBUX a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $99.51 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Workday $WDAY a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $233.33 setting an intermediate downtrend.

 

Changes in Dow Jones Industrial Average announced late Friday

Nvidia and Sherwin Williams are added on November 8^th, replacing Intel and Dow Holdings

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 3.36 on Friday, but dropped 8.20 last week to 49.20. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.

The long term Barometer added 0.40 on Friday, but dropped 2.60 last week to 69.60. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was established.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.90 on Friday, but plunged 13.20 last week to 56.31. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but dropped 5.51 last week to 72.97. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was established.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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