Pre-opening Comments for Friday November 8th
U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures down 2 points at 8:35 AM EST.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US71.90 cents following release of Canada’s October Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a 27,200 increase versus a 46,700 gain in September. Actual was a 14,500 increase. Consensus was an increase in the Unemployment to 6.6% from 6.5% in September. Actual was unchanged at 6.5%.
AirBNB advanced $10.14 to $157.41 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0015-3.png "clip_image001[5]")
Pinterest dropped $4.19 to $29.75 after lowering guidance.
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0025-3.png "clip_image002[5]")
DraftKings dropped $2.74 to $36.24 after lowering guidance.
![clip_image003[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0035-3.png "clip_image003[5]")
Expedia advanced $8.97 to $183.10 after raising its full year outlook.
![clip_image004[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0045-3.png "clip_image004[5]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 8th
The fundamentals surrounding Agriculture are failing to present a backdrop that is enticing to the seasonal trade in the industry through the end of the year. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/11/07/stock-market-outlook-for-november-8-2024/
Responses to FOMC Announcement
At 2:00 PM EST yesterday, the FOMC lowered the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25% to 4.50%-4.75% Response to the news was as follow:
S&P 500 recorded a modest gain after 2:00 PM
The U.S. Dollar ETN recorded a slight drop
20+ Treasury Bond ETF price was virtually unchanged
Bank SPDRs $KBE and $KRE moved lower
Gold prices moved modestly higher. Ditto for gold equity ETFs (e.g. GDX)
Technical Notes
Canada iShares $EWC moved above US$42.17 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Global Base Metals iShares $XBM.TO moved above Cdn$22.95 setting a new intermediate uptrend.
Match Group $MTCH a NASDAQ 100 stock plunged below $33.37 completing a double top pattern. The company reported lower than consensus third quarter earnings.
American Electric Power $AEP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $95.95 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern
Shopify $SHOP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$115.93 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
It’s GAME ON for These Stocks: Joe Rabil
It’s GAME ON for These Stocks – YouTube
What to expect in the first 100 days of Trump’s 2nd term: CBC News
What to expect in the first 100 days of Trump’s 2nd term – YouTube
Trump’s Victory Sent Stocks SOARING: Tom Bowley
Trump’s Victory Sent Stocks SOARING – YouTube
Navigating the Post-Election Rally: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth
Navigating the Post-Election Rally – YouTube
S&P 500 in a ‘mania’ as stock-market rally overshoots, says Wall Street bear
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 2.00 to 64.50. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 74.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 4.81 to 68.33. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 1.69 to 76.02. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 8th, 2024 at 10:04 am
Re: Larry from yesterday.
I think that was the Trump trade bounce for financials and industrials (rails), DJT, and TSLA. S&P and Nasdaq has gone up too fast and needs a cooling period, and tech will most likely sell off if this happens.
November 8th, 2024 at 10:08 am
Any thoughts on the BCE purchase from the other day? Could this be a major restructuring coming in the new year in which they slash the dividend just like AT&T a while back? I noticed that the analysts are surprisingly not so negative on this. eg. Morningstar said they’ll keep $60 PT on it after the Ziply deal and then went to $56 after the earnings yesterday.
November 8th, 2024 at 11:02 am
Any thoughts on gold out there now that the Cheeto is coming back ? Pretty ugly chart this month.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:42 pm
Larry
Thoughts on financials – continue to outperform in CAD/US for the next year vs tech. Financials US trading at 18 PE vs historical high of 16 PE, CAD 14 PE vs historical high of 13 PE. So the financials are already trading beyond their normal high, but given some of the comments I hear from advisors and BNN, they consider financials cheap until they trade at the market PE (so there is 2-3 multiple expansion possible). Meanwhile tech will likely perform at the market performance subject to certain carve out areas. Short term everything looks overbought, but given the seasonals along with lowering rates and change in government its hard to say financials will not be the largest beneficiary. Technicals in the financials continue to point to up and to the right. Full disclosure, I ended up going long on the financials at the beginning of Sept and do not have any exposure to tech at this time.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Neil
I think BCE’s change in strategy is an admission growth in CAD is limited so they are looking to pivot to find some growth to support the dividend in the future. The fact they confirmed no increase in dividend in 2025 kind of points to maintaining it. Meantime, they are cashflow neutral so unless the Ziply turns out to be less than advertised, they likely try and grow the cashflow. However, if nothing changes and the cashflow shrinks further towards end of 2025, then a cut could be in the cards.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:52 pm
Zack
Sit on the gold if you have it, it’s going to $3000 in the intermediate term. Short term it was overbought and needed a pullback, but this is likely to be done in the next month as it reloads in December to restart the next seasonal strength window.