Pre-opening Comments for Friday July 15th
U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were slightly lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for the July Empire State Manufacturing Survey was a drop of 1.25% versus a decline of 1.20 in June. Actual was an increase to 11.1. Consensus for June U.S. Retail Sales was an increase of 0.8% versus a decline of 0.3% in May. Actual was an increase of 1.0. Excluding auto sales, consensus for June U.S. Retail Sales was an increase of 0.6% versus a gain of 0.5% in May. Actual was an increase of 1.0%.
Pinterest advanced $3.22 to $20.78 after Elliott Management purchased an interest in the company.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Wells Fargo slipped $0.34 to $38.40 after reporting less than consensus second quarter results.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
UnitedHealth Group added $8.97 to $511.40 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings. The company also offered positive guidance.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0031-7.png "clip_image003[1]")
CSX gained $0.47 to $28.65 after Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Often the easiest way to gauge the health of the market and the economy is to simply look at the performance of the banks; it is not looking good”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/07/14/stock-market-outlook-for-july-15-2022/
Technical Notes for Yesterday
Financial ETFs were notably weaker in early trading. Financial SPDRs $XLF moved below $30.42 extending an intermediate downtrend. Regional Bank SPDRs $KRE moved below $56.23 extending an intermediate downtrend. U.S. brokers iShares $IAI moved below $80.82 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Weakness yesterday was led by U.S. financial stocks following release of less than consensus second quarter results by JP Morgan $JPM and Morgan Stanley $MS. S&P 100 Financials and Financials in the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking intermediate support included American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, American International Group, US Bancorp and Travelers.
Other S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stock moving below intermediate support included Wallgreens Boots, Emerson Electric, PACCAR, Union Pacific and Accenture.
Selected technology equities and related ETFs recorded encouraging technical patterns yesterday. Notable was strength in semiconductor equities and ETFs following release of better than consensus quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor, the leader in the industry. Nice move by Analog Devices $ADI above intermediate resistance at $153.16!
Dow Jones Transportation Average $TRAN moved below 12,777.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Emerging Markets iShares moved below $38.62 extending an intermediate downtrend.
WTI Crude Oil $WTIC moved below $92.93 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Royal Bank $RY.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below $122.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 14th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 14th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 14th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.80 to 19.00 yesterday. It remain Oversold.
The long term Barometer eased 1.60 to 18.40 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.94 to 17.65 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.10 to 20.59 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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July 15th, 2022 at 5:56 pm
The price of Copper is doing exactly what it did in 2008. And we know what happened then. That is a very bearish sign for the economy.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81650616709&a=1194290822
July 17th, 2022 at 3:10 pm
Bruce,
RE: ZWB.
I’m with you on this one. If you have a longer time frame, it is fine to hold for income. Also, ZWC, which is outperforming ZWB since earlier this year and is more diversified with a higher yield.
https://schrts.co/mUmHXfAm
July 17th, 2022 at 3:16 pm
Ron/BC,
The USD seems to be going parabolic. The UUP seems to have a “bearish abandoned baby” pattern as well as the RSI (8) showing a sell, at least temporarily. The strong USD has helped to trash all the commodities recently, although that wasn’t happening with oil earlier in the year. If the USD cools off, there could be a rebound in copper, oil…
Your thoughts?
https://schrts.co/RcJrXQzs
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearish-abandoned-baby.asp
July 17th, 2022 at 6:07 pm
Paula
Here is the $USD with GLD and $CDW overlaid. Plus the above chart of $USD:$XEU. The U.S.$ is over extended and showing a negative divergence but where else are investors going to go? A pullback to 105 would be typical but the chart is still bullish.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83439486039&a=673066460
July 17th, 2022 at 10:16 pm
Ron/BC,
thanks. Great chart. I like the way you put so much on to compare at once.
July 18th, 2022 at 1:55 am
Paula
Thanks. But I often overdue too many indicators and will often remove some of them so the chart doesn’t get too junked up. Reminds me of Joe Friday on Dragnet when he’d say to lady, “Just the facts ma’am.”