Pre-opening Comments for Friday July 29th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 20 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for June PCE Price Index was 6.6% versus 6.3% in May. Actual was 6.8%. Excluding food and energy, consensus was unchanged from May on a year-over-year basis at 4.7%. Actual was 4.8%. Consensus for June Personal Income was an increase of 0.5% versus a gain of 0.5% in May. Actual was.an increase of 0.6%. Consensus for June Personal Spending was an increase of 0.9% versus a gain of 0.2% in May. Actual was an increase of 1.6%.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at US77.83 cents following release of Canada’s May GDP at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. Actual was unchanged from May.
Amazon gained $14.80 to $137.00 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0011-18.png "clip_image001[1]")
Intel dropped $3.19 to $36.52 after reporting less than consensus second quarter results.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0021-15.png "clip_image002[1]")
Apple advanced $4.40 to $161.75 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0031-16.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Clean energy stocks breaking out, benefitting our model portfolio”. Following is the link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/07/28/stock-market-outlook-for-july-29-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
Solar ETF $TAN moved above $80.52 resuming an intermediate uptrend. Responded to improving chance for passage of a Congressional bill supporting greater solar energy construction and development.
Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved above $71.96 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Consumer Staples SPDRs $XLP moved above $74.44 completing an intermediate base building pattern.
Healthcare SPDRs $XLV moved above $133.49 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Home Builders SPDRs $XHB moved above $63.21 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Water Resources ETF $PHO moved above $50.48 extending an intermediate uptrend.
More Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks breaking intermediate resistance!
Microsoft $MSFT moved above $269.05 completing a double bottom pattern. Procter & Gamble $PG) moved above $146.54 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. Goldman Sachs $GS moved above $329.72 extending an intermediate uptrend.
More S&P 100 stocks breaking intermediate resistance! Keurig Dr. Pepper $KDP moved above $37.12 extending an intermediate uptrend. Blackrock $BLK moved above $652.75 completing a double bottom pattern. Ford $F moved above $13.97 extending an intermediate uptrend. Exelon $EXC moved above $64.62 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
More NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking intermediate resistance! Intuitive Surgical $ISRG moved above intermediate resistance at $230.00. Fiserv $FiSV moved above $110.99 extending an intermediate uptrend. Paychex $PAYX moved above 127.45 extending an intermediate uptrend. Paccar moved above $89.88 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX 60 stocks caught the “breakout wave” from U.S. equity markets.
Dollarama $DOL.TO moved above $78.41 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Commerce Bank $CM.TO moved above intermediate resistance at $63.93. BCE $BCE moved above $64.62 setting an intermediate uptrend. Waste Connection $WCN.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $11.90 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bausch Health $BHC.TO moved below $8.41 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 28th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 28th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 28th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links from valued providers
Greg Schnell discusses “Scanning stocks for strength”
Scanning Stocks For Strength | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (07.27.22) – YouTube
Tom Bowley says “Secular bull market underway again”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzEbbEHLfJ4
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 6.60 to 74.40 yesterday. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 6.40 to 34.60 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 9.24 to 52.52 yesterday. It remains Neutral. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 4.62 to 36.13 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains up.
Editor’s Note
Even though a Civic Holiday on Monday, Tech Talk will appear as usual.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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July 29th, 2022 at 11:37 am
looks like the markets are taking a breather today. lol
July 29th, 2022 at 12:07 pm
This is what Biden says and what David Rosenberg says about the economy. I don’t know who is smarter and knows what they are talking about…
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/28/breaking-down-the-gdp-report-and-the-markets-post-fed-moves.html
July 29th, 2022 at 1:24 pm
David
#2
Biden is a politician so everything he says will be questionable. Rosenberg is an economist and has a good track record of calling markets. I’ve always liked to read and hear what Rosenberg has to say as it’s worth a serious consideration. Unfortunately most people with portfolios need to hear bullish stories to justify holding large stock positions and still sleep at night. The rah,rah rah crowd is always wrong at the worst possible point in time. Nothing ever changes. Glad I’m not one of them.
July 29th, 2022 at 1:34 pm
Ron/BC
do you think its a good time to be buying GDX?
July 29th, 2022 at 1:46 pm
David Rosenberg has called 10 of the last 3 recessions.
July 29th, 2022 at 2:00 pm
#5.
so this rally that we are having is only temporary and not the start of bull market or the bottom of this bear market?
July 29th, 2022 at 2:09 pm
#5
Yes he has and I appreciated the heads up each time!
July 29th, 2022 at 2:19 pm
David #4
Here is a chart of GDX. It has been underperforming just about every other Gold chart measurement there is. Doesn’t mean it wont turn around but the trend is definitely down.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15610425966&a=1055719642
July 29th, 2022 at 2:30 pm
David #5
Here is the $SPX
Price broke down below 4200 and fell 1100 points in total. Price is rebounding now and bumping up against the breakdown point which is major price resistance. That 4200 level would have to be cleared and held to expect any more upside price action. All the b.s. in the world can’t change that fact. Even jumping up and down and waving one’s arms around wont fix it,lol.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65916842220&a=1131926615
July 29th, 2022 at 3:02 pm
Ron\BC
so if 4200 doesn’t break and we enter into a recession this second half, am i to think that we are heading lower and probably lower than June lows?
July 29th, 2022 at 3:32 pm
nice rally today, hope it keeps going up, for a little while longer.
July 29th, 2022 at 4:16 pm
D
avid
Re:#10
Yes!
July 29th, 2022 at 4:56 pm
David Rosenberg is my favourite punching bag because of all of the false recession calls he has made over the years. The US is in a technical recession with two quarters of mild economic contraction. At the same time the unemployment rate is at very low levels and many business are making quite good earnings. We live in interesting times. The stock market prices in the economy looking six to nine months ahead so you have to ask yourself where will we be in spring 2023. I don’t know but I doubt that it will be anything severe.
July 30th, 2022 at 10:40 am
In the last 50 years the present US unemployment rate of 3.6% was never lower except for Sept 2019 when it reached 3.5%. Some recession.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate#:~:text=Unemployment%20Rate%20in%20the%20United,percent%20in%20May%20of%201953.
July 30th, 2022 at 4:52 pm
FYI Saw this message on TD Web Broker. Think there was talk a while back about leveraged ETFs and things to keep in mind…
Please be advised that effective Tuesday, August 2, 2022, seven Horizons ETF securities will start trading on a post-consolidated basis. Shareholders’ post-consolidated balances will be reflected in their accounts before securities start trading on August 2.
In preparation for the reverse stock split, all affected equity and option orders for HBIT, HBIT.U, HOD, HMJU, HED, HMMJ and HMMJ.U will be cancelled after market close Friday, July 29.
As of the market open on August 2, the following securities will trade on a post-consolidated basis:
Consolidation ratio 1 share for 4 existing
BetaPro Bitcoin ETF (TSX: HBIT and HBIT.U)
Consolidation ratio 1 share for 4 existing
BetaPro Crude Oil Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear ETF (TSX: HOD)
Consolidation ratio 1 share for 2 existing
BetaPro Marijuana Companies 2x Daily Bull ETF (TSX: HMJU)
Consolidation ratio 1 share for 4 existing
BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped EnergyTM 2x Daily Bear ETF (TSX: HED)
Consolidation ratio 1 share for 2 existing
Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (TSX: HMMJ and HMMJ.U)
July 31st, 2022 at 8:56 pm
#14
Larry/ON
Hard to say what will happen. I read that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Also if it has been 3.6% for the past 3 months, maybe its maxed out and bottoming so it will have no where to go but up…time will tell i guess.