Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday October 4th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 59 points in pre-opening trade.
Bank of New York Mellon added $1.04 to $40.70 after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Gilead gained $2.00 to $64.72 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
Chipotle advanced $17.29 to $1521.99 after Deutsche Bank raised its target price from $1503 to $1708.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/clip_image0031.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The S&P 500 Index is starting the new month and quarter with a bounce from its rising 200-week moving average, a variable hurdle that in modern history has only been broken during periods of defined economic recession”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/10/03/stock-market-outlook-for-october-4-2022/
Technical notes for yesterday
Highlight yesterday was strength in precious metal prices in response to U.S. Dollar weakness.
Gold bullion advanced $30.00 per ounce
Silver ETN $SLV moved above $18.43 completing an intermediate base building pattern.
Canadian gold stocks led the advance by TSX Composite stocks
Barrick Gold completed a double bottom pattern by moving above Cdn$21.5. Agnico-Eagle competed a double bottom pattern by moving above Cdn$59.37. First Majestic $FR.TO a silver producer moved above US$11.28 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Israel iShares $EIS moved below $57.19 extending an intermediate downtrend.
VALE $VALE one of the largest base metal producers in the world moved above $13.82 completing a double bottom pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 3rd 2022
Green: Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 3rd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 3rd 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Karl and Erin Swenlin say” Bear market rally ahead”.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer gained 5.40 to 8.60 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend has turned up.
The long term Barometer added 4.60 to 16.80 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend has turned up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 11.44 to 32.63 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend has turned up.
The long term Barometer advanced 6.78 to 25.85 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend has turned up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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October 4th, 2022 at 10:49 am
Relief rally? or something more?
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SPY
October 4th, 2022 at 4:30 pm
This rally better not fail soon or we’ll all find out what a crash really looks like!!!!
October 4th, 2022 at 6:29 pm
Every morning I read about 20 news sites from around the world, in French and in English. I was reading about Australia raising their interest rates by only 25 basis points, less than previous hike. All Federal reserve bankers around the world talk to each other, they do not operate in a vacuum. Then I was thinking that November is the Mid-Term elections in the US and historically, the FEDs do not want to appear political, so they do not usually do anything harsh during election times. BOC meets Oct. 26, FED Nov 1-2. That got me thinking that perhaps, the Fed will stand pat, or raise a token 25 basis point. The markets will interpret this as bullish.
If inflation and employment numbers in the coming few days and weeks come down, which would be better than expected, showing inflation slowing and unemployment rising, it will be interpreted as bullish, meaning the FED’s job is almost done with hikes. Does not have to be by much.
Last week I noted that usually, the last 1 or 2 days of the month, and even more so the last day of the quarter, are usually negative as per reasons noted previously. The next business day, the first trading day of the month is usually bullish. So Monday bullishness was no surprise to me. The sentiment was so universally bearish last week and all of last month, that we had to see a flip to the other side this month. This is psychological, as per the theme in “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.
November, running until the end of the year, is usually pretty good for the markets.
I am beginning to suspect that this “Double Bottom” on the S&P is real and will hold, this year anyway. It sure seems to be classic. In any case, I am about 25% cash now, major buys last week, a couple this week. Still some good buys out there, from a fundamental point of view.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp
October 4th, 2022 at 6:55 pm
tnx Canuck….appreciate your insights…always food for thought….
October 4th, 2022 at 7:45 pm
Love to see headlines like this, quite bullish….
A quarter of Canadians are looking to cash out their investments, survey finds
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/a-quarter-of-canadians-are-looking-to-cash-out-their-investments-survey-finds-1.1827917
October 4th, 2022 at 8:05 pm
Bruce…Just posting what I’m thinking and what I’m doing. I’m not going to name the names I bought, for various reasons.
However, I’ll tell you about one name in particular: in 2018 during the last rate hike cycle, it hit a multi-year low, dropped 13.3% from its 52 week high; during the 2020 COVID crash it was down 20.4% from its 52 week high, and last week it was down 17.4% from its 52 week high…good enough for me. I don’t have to get the absolute lowest price, the old yard stick analogy, all I want is a good 2 feet in the middle. This is a company with solid earnings and solid dividend growth history, what’s not to like?
Maybe I’ll regret it, maybe not. I’m happy with the price I got on all my recent buys, all good solid companies, large caps with solid dividend growth profiles. If I’m wrong, I’ll get paid while I wait. I can always average down….
Starting tomorrow, we should see a little consolidation over the next few days from the massive gains this past 2 days.