Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 3rd
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 26 at 7:30 AM EDT.
Responses in currency markets to the Federal Reserve’s decision released yesterday are continuing this morning. The U.S. Dollar Index has strengthened relative to all developed world currencies. The Canadian Dollar is down another 0.27 to US72.54 cents.
The Canadian government is scheduled to release a mini-budget at 4:00 PM EDT today;.
Bank of England’s interest rate for large banks released at 8:00 AM EDT is expected to increase from 2.25% to 3.00%.
Third quarter U.S. Non-farm Productivity report released at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.5% versus a drop of 4.1% in the second quarter.
U.S. September Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase to $71.10 billion from $67.40 billion in August.
Canadian September Merchandise Trade released at 8.30 AM EDT is expected to increase to $3.45 billion from $1.52 billion in August.
Booking $BKNG gained $86.82 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results. The company also offered positive guidance on travel bookings for the fourth quarter
MGM Resorts $MGM dropped $1.21 to $33.90 after reporting a surprising third quarter loss.
Roku $ROKU plunged $9.57 to 44.75 after lowering fourth quarter guidance.
eBay $EBAYadded $2.04 to $41.00 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Short-term rising trend of the S&P 500 Index stemming from the mid-October low has been broken”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/11/02/stock-market-outlook-for-november-3-2022/
Response to the FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM EDT
The Fed Reserve increase the Fed Fund Rate by 0.75 to 3.75%-4.00% as anticipated. It also indicated that more data points are needed before additional changes are made. Responses were as follows:
S&P 500 Index initially moved higher after 2:00 PM, but closed sharply lower.
U.S. Dollar Index ETN moved lower after 2:00 PM, but closed sharply higher.
Yield on 10 year Treasuries moved lower after 2:00 PM, but recovered to turn slightly positive
Industrial commodity ETN GSG moved slightly higher after 2:00 PM, but closed slightly lower.
Gold ETN GLD moved sharply higher after 2:00 PM, but closed sharply lower.
Silver ETN SVR tracked the gold ETN
Gold equities and related ETFs followed the price of gold and silver
The Canadian Dollar in U.S. Dollars moved sharply higher after 2:00 PM, but closed sharply lower
Technical Notes for yesterday
Editor’s Note: All of the following technical events occurred before the FOMC announcements at 2:00 PM yesterday.
Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved above $79.44 extending an intermediate uptrend. Aerospace & Defense ETF $ITA moved above $108.64 extending an intermediate uptrend.
IBM $IBM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $139.34 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of America $BAC an S&P 100 stock moved above $36.50 extending an intermediate uptrend.
CCL Industries $CCL.B.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below $62.58 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 2nd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 2nd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 2nd 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Link from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
How to Preserve Your Capital in Inflationary Times – Uncommon Sense Investor
Tom Bowley discusses “Positive Divergences vs the Fed”. Includes a comment on seasonality for U.S. equity markets in the month of November with a focus on Industrials.
Positive Divergences vs. The Fed | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (11.01.22) – YouTube
Market Buzz by Greg Schnell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_vMhwqDHI0
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 12.20 to 50.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.60 to 34.40. It remains Oversold.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 8.47 to 48.31. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 6.36 to 30.51. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 3rd, 2022 at 9:40 am
the AAII survey this week shows the bulls at 30.6% vs 26.6 last week and 22.6 two weeks ago…
the bears are 32.9% vs 45.7 and 56.2 wo weeks ago…..