Pre-opening Comments for Thursday December 1st
U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 7:30 AM EST.
October core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.5% in September. On a year-over-year basis, October core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 5.0 versus a gain of 5.1% in September.
Snowflake $SNOW dropped $7.30 to $135.60 after the company offered a lower than expected outlook
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Salesforce.com $CRM fell $10.85 to $149.40 after Bret Taylor, company Chief Executive Officer announced plans to leave the company next spring.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
Splunk $SPLK added $6.47 to $84.15 after the company offered higher sales and cash flow forecasts.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0031.png "clip_image003[1]")
Sturm Ruger $RGR gained $3.38 to $58.31 after the company announce a special $5.00 per share dividend.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0041.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.9% in December with 70% of periods closing higher”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/11/30/stock-market-outlook-for-december-1-2022/
Responses to Federal Reserve Chairman’s Speech after 2:00 PM
S&P 500 moved higher moving and advanced above its 200 day moving average.
Long term treasury bond prices moved higher
The U.S. Dollar Index ETN moved lower
Financials moved higher
Gold/Silver prices moved higher
Precious metal equity prices moved higher.
Technical Notes
Chinese ETFs $FXI were notably higher. China Large Cap iShares moved above $27.13 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Emerging Markets iShares $EEM, heavily weighted in Chinese equities moved above $39.16 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Other emerging markets showing positive technical action include Taiwan and Hong Kong. Taiwan iShares moved above $49.83 extending an intermediate uptrend. Hong Kong iShares moved above $19.91 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Strength in Chinese equities prompted strength in base metal equities and ETFs. Global Base Metals iShares $PICK moved above $42.06 extending an intermediate uptrend. Global X Copper Miners $COPX moved above $35.60 extending an intermediate uptrend. TSX Global Base Metals iShares XBM.TO moved above Cdn$19.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX Information Technology iShares $XIT.TO moved above Cdn$34.40 extending an intermediate uptrend. Strength was led by a move by CGI Group $GIB.A.TO above Cdn$116.88 to an all-time high.
EAFE iShares $EFA moved above $66.77 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Other major U.S. sector ETFs that moved above intermediate resistance included XLK, SLX, IYT, XME, IAI, IYR, SLV
S&P 100 stocks moving above intermediate resistance included FDX, BKNG, NKE, MS, USB, PFE, CSCO, MSFT
NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above intermediate resistance included ILMN, WDAY, LULU, CPRT, CSX, GOOG, GOOGL, KLAC, MCHP, MRVL, PAYX, TCOM, TTWO
TSX 60 stocks moving above intermediate resistance included BAM.A, TECK.B, PPL.
Trader’s Corner
Lots of seasonality updates! December tends to be a month when seasonal influences change the most.
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 30th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 30th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 30th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
From Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Tom Bowley says “S&P 500 support levels must hold”.
S&P 500 Support Levels Must Hold | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (11.29.22) – YouTube
Greg Schnell says “It’s a real bull versus bear battle”
It’s A Real Bull vs. Bear Battle | Greg Schnell, CMT | Your Daily Five (11.29.22) – YouTube
Greg Schnell is “Looking for strong ETFs”.
Looking For Strong ETFs | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (11.30.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.60 to 92.80. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 6.40 to 64.60. It changed from Neutral to Overbought. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.51 to 84.32. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 5.93 to 57.20. It remains Neutral. Trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 1st, 2022 at 9:22 am
We need more posts.
Personal Consumptions Index for Oct expectation was 0.3% but was below expectations at 0.2% thus another indication of cooling inflation. It’s giving the green light for the market today
Metals – In their seasonal positive period – XBM, XME
December 1st, 2022 at 11:03 am
re #1;
Larry I agree about the lack of posts.
Your (and a couple of others) posts seem so ‘professional’, we lurkers are reluctant to expose our naivete. Don’t know how to change that, but we do appreciate your opinions!
Bernie/Lethbridge
December 1st, 2022 at 1:29 pm
Still_Learning
I’m not interested in reading stock stories much as the internet is full of them with dozens of opinions on each bit of news. I used to watch financial shows with their special guests that were so called experts in the market. I would write down their top picks and track them for months. Most lost money so I gave up on stock stories. So I stick to charts and the old saying goes “charts don’t lie”. Here is a chart of the $SPX and one can see price has been in a downtrend for almost one year now. Overlaid is the Dow and $Compq to see the relative performance of them. The $SPX has to clear that downtrendline AND stay above it to suggest a change of trend from down to possibly up. For all of 2022 the $SPX has seen lower highs and lower lows. Until that changes don’t expect many to be interested in the stock market. Not surprising that there are few posts here anymore as many stock investors are under water with their portfolios and just ignore the market as they don’t want to sell and incur losses. So they just say “It’ll come back” and walk away for now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36919636123&a=939923011
December 1st, 2022 at 7:03 pm
I like Cramer if hours later he repeats the same phrase I used in the morning. The equal weighted SP500 index broke its’ downtrend line. Money still needs to come out of tech and it will take time for this to happen as investors slowly seek opportunity elsewhere. Other parts of the market will rally but the heavy weighting of those big tech names distorts SPX to the downside. Also look at DIA.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/cramer-powells-inflation-remarks-a-green-light-to-stay-in-stocks.html
December 1st, 2022 at 7:11 pm
Ron
Thanks for the comment and charting. It confirms I should continue to sit on my hands for another month and not let those ichy trading fingers get going. The bank earning are nothing to write home about and likely to weaken more next year before a rebound given the larger level of write offs.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:13 pm
#4
If you want a straight answer don’t think you’ll ever get one from Cramer. He is an entertainer and puts on a performance. Here is the Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP and you can see the downtrendline for all of 2022 has not been broken AND the volume has dropped dramatically on the recent run up. She’s still a sick puppy until price clears AND holds above that downtrendline……………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96265823481&listNum=1&a=673066190
December 1st, 2022 at 9:15 pm
My favourite to listen to is Eric Nuttall for stock ideas and forecasts. I do believe he is a little too aggressive with his evaluations.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:30 pm
Bman #5
Here is BNS.to again. Price needs to clear AND hold above $75 to suggest a strong run up.Seasonal trends for January are bullish. Perhaps over the next few weeks the selloff will end and reverse back up. Prices don’t go down forever.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BNS.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59660604736&a=673066260
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=BNS.TO