Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday December 14th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points in pre-opening trade.
FOMC statement on interest rates is released at 2:00 PM EST. Press conference with Federal Reserve chairman Powell is scheduled at 2:30 PM EST. Consensus is that the Fed Fund Rate will increase from 3.75%-4.00% to 4.25%-4.50%. In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to reduce its balance sheet by $90 billion per month. Focus will be on Powell’s outlook for the Fed Fund rate into 2023.
Constellation Energy added $1.56 to $92.40 after Mizuho raised its target price from $54 to $94.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0011-6.png "clip_image001[1]")
Wallgreens Boots gained $0.07 to $41.10 after Mizuho raised its target price from$36 to $41.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0021-8.png "clip_image002[1]")
Netflix advanced $0.89 to $321.23 after Jefferies raise its target price from $250 to $310.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
Delta Airlines gained $1.66 to $35.14 after the company raised its revenue guidance.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “S&P 500 Index initially surged above declining trendline resistance only to fail as investors brace for the Fed catalyst on Wednesday”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/12/13/stock-market-outlook-for-december-14-2022/
Technical Notes
All of the upside technical action by broadly based U.S. equities occurred in the first hour of trading. S&P 100 stocks that extended intermediate uptrends included HD, ABT, DHR, EMR, IBM, ADBE and MA
NASDAQ 100 stocks that extended intermediate uptrends included ADI, AMAT, DOCU, INTU, NXPI, SWKS, VRSN, MRNA, VRSK, ANSS
The technology sector led the advance in U.S. equity markets. Notable were breakouts by semiconductor ETFs: SMH, SOXX, PSI.
Canadian technology stocks and related ETFs (e.g.XIT.TO) also recorded strong technical action. Nice breakout by Open Text (OTEX) above US$29.73 completing a double bottom pattern!
Tesla a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $166.18 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 13th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 13th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 13th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Tom Bowley discusses significance of strength in the Technology sector.
Everyone Awaits Inflation Data | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (12.13.22) – YouTube
David Keller notes “Seasonality says strong December, weak January”
Seasonality Says Strong December Weak January | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (12.12) – YouTube
Seasonality Chart of the Day from www.EquityClock.com
Optimal time of the year to own the TSX 60 Index and its related ETF (XIU.TO) is from December 14th to March 7th.
iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (TSE:XIU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart
Seasonal Chart Analysis
Analysis of the iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (TSE:XIU.TO) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of December 14 and a Sell Date of March 7 has resulted in a geometric average return of 2.43% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 20 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 16 of those periods. This is a very good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 20 years by an average of 4.08% per year.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.00 to 82.60. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 2.80 to 64.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.42 to 67.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer gained 3.39 to 51.27. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 14th, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Buy Stop-Limit orders ‘to protect’ Shorts on Questrade
I want to give a warning about such trading orders. They are supposed to work on a Shorted stock that is rising (against you). If your stop price is hit, a Buy (Cover) order is issued to Buy (Cover) at your limit price (or less).
I had a short position that I wanted to limit my losses on. I put in a Buy Stop-Limit order well above the close of yesterday (the stock was rising yesterday). The stock was trading well below my Stop price for a while this morning, then suddenly my order was triggered, then the price dropped way down again. What apparently happened was the stop price I put in for was triggered by the ASKING price, NOT the BID or last actual SALE price! I had assumed my stop price would pertain to the sale price. So, all someone who holds the stock (and wants to sell at a good price) has to do, is put in a BS ASKING price and see if any Buy Stop Orders are triggered.
I’ve had it with putting in Stop orders, too much ‘trickery’!
December 14th, 2022 at 1:25 pm
Still_Learning
I agree there is a lot of trickery with stock derivatives and complex orders. I used to trade Options and was often surprised at how they moved both ways with very little actual price movement on the underlying. I finally stopped trading them. The best way to make some serious money I’ve found is to buy and sell a condo,especially in a strong and rising market. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Use the banks money as much as possible, put in a low ball offer & clean the place up and list it with your favorite realtor that you have faith in. And to avoid income tax on the profit move into it for awhile. Can’t ask for more than that…………….