Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 4^th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points at 8:35 AM EDT.

Index futures were unchanged after release of the March U.S. Trade Deficit report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a recover to $63.80 billion from $70.05 billion in February. Actual was a deficit of $64.2 billion.

First Horizon National dropped $6.21 to $8.90 after Toronto Dominion Bank withdrew its US$13.4 billion takeover offer.

Trip.com dropped $0.95 to $16.15 after reporting a higher than consensus first quarter loss.

QualComm fell $2.62 to $110.20 after lowering guidance below consensus.

Avnet advanced $1.26 to $42.00 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.

 

EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Headline reads “Despite a demand backdrop that remains upbeat and supply that is stable, the price of oil has broken down, diverging from the trend of seasonal norms heading through the spring”.

http://www.equityclock.com/2023/05/03/stock-market-outlook-for-may-4-2023/

Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is to released on Monday May 8^th

Responses to FOMC news released at 2:00 PM EDT yesterday

FOMC raised the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25% to 5.00%-5.25% as expected. It also noted that future changes to the Fed Fund Rate will be “data dependent”.

Initially, U.S. equity indices moved higher, but quickly moved lower after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell implied that a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate is unlikely to occur “any time soon”.

The VIX Index moved higher

Long term Bond prices moved higher

U.S. Bank ETF moved sharply lower.

Regional Bank ETF was notably weaker

Weakness is expected to extend at the opening today after PacWest announced plans to “examine strategy options including possible sale”. The Bank is on the list of 11 banks that are experiencing financial distress. The stock dropped another $1.70 to $4.70 after the close.

 

Technical Notes

Solar ETF $TAN moved below $68.60 extending an intermediate downtrend.

CVS Health $CVS an S&P 100 stock moved below $71.52 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved below $6.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Corn ETN $CORN moved below $22.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Selected NASDAQ 100 stocks moved above resistance extending an intermediate uptrend:

Marriott International moved above $181.12. Biogen moved above $311.88. VeriSign stock moved above $224.56. Verisk moved above $205.91.

Gold stocks responded to higher gold prices. Barrick Gold $ABX.TO moved above Cdn$27.05 and Kinross moved above Cdn$7.16 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$60.64 extending an intermediate uptrend.

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 3^rd 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 3^rd 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 3^rd 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Source for positive seasonal ratings: www.equityclock.com

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.80 to 45.20. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer dropped 3.60 to 47.60. It remains Neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.43 to 53.45. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.43 to 56.90. It remains Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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