Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday June 20th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 12 points at 8:30 AM EDT
TSX Capped REIT iShares moved below Cdn$16.20 yesterday extending an intermediate downtrend.
Intel gained $0.18 to $36.55 after announcing a $33 billion plan to build two plants in Germany.
PayPal added $1.07 to $67.50 after announcing plans to increase its share buyback program from $4 billion to $5 billion.
DICE Therapeutics jumped $12.99 to $46.84 after Eli Lilly announced purchase of the company in a deal valued at $2.4 billion.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Mean reversion among asset classes may provide an opportunity in two favoured seasonal trades before the quarter comes to a close”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/06/17/stock-market-outlook-for-june-20-2023/
The Bottom Line
Changes in currencies are having an important impact on equity and commodity prices. The U.S. Dollar Index and its related Exchange Traded Note (Symbol: UUP) moved significantly lower following news on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve that it plans to maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% for now. In response, world currencies and commodities priced in U.S. Dollars moved significantly higher, led by strength in grain prices and the Canadian Dollar.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.Factset.com
Earnings and revenue estimates for remainder of the year were unchanged from last week. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a drop of 6.4% in earnings and a drop of 0.4% in revenues. Consensus for the third quarter calls for an increase of 0.8% in earnings and a 1.2% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings and a 3.2% increase in revenues. For all of 2023, consensus calls for an increase of 1.2% in earnings and a 2.4% increase in revenues.
Earnings and revenue growth continues beyond the fourth quarter of 2023. Consensus for 2024 calls for a 12.3% increase in earnings and a 4.9% increase in revenues.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
May U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.405 million units from 1.401 million units in April.
Canadian May Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gives testimonies to Congress at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday and Thursday.
May U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 4.24 million units from 4.28 million units in April.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Quiet week! Focus is on FedEx, a leader in the Transportation sector
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 16th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 16th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 16th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for positive seasonal ratings: www.equityclock.com
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Seasonality Chart of the Day
Technical profile for JP Morgan Chase improved on Friday when the stock moved above $143.37 extending an intermediate uptrend. See price chart below.
Seasonal Chart Analysis
Analysis of the J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of June 22 and a Sell Date of November 11 has resulted in a geometric average return of 4.5% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 20 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 15 of those periods. This is a good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 20 years by an average of 3.15% per year.
Technical Notes on Friday
JP Morgan Chase $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $143.37 extending an intermediate uptrend. Technical score is 2+0+1+1= 4
Global X Infrastructure ETF $PAVE moved above $30.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index contributed to strength in U.S. grain prices and their related Exchange Traded Notes and Exchange Traded Funds
Wheat ETN $WEAT moved above intermediate resistance at $6.69.
Corn ETN $CORN moved above intermediate resistance at $25.64
Soybean ETN $SOYB moved above intermediate resistance at $27.54.
Agriculture ETF $DBA moved above $21.37 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Other Agriculture ETFs also advanced smartly last week, included MOO and COW.TO.
Links offered by valued providers
Close relationship between S&P 500 and Fed Liquidity
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 17th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
A Chilling Comparison of 2023 To 1999 | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.15.23)
A Chilling Comparison of 2023 To 1999 | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.15.23) – YouTube
Big stock market rally to be followed by ‘big collapse,’ says BofA’s Hartnett
Stock market could face $150 billion headwind from rebalancing sales: JPM
US Dollar Rolls Down Greg Schnell June 16, 2023 at 12:53 PM
US Dollar Rolls Down | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Three Charts Show Bear Case for Technology David Keller June 16, 2023 at 08:44 PM
Three Charts Show Bear Case for Technology | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Major Indexes Have Reached Bull Market Participation Levels Carl Swenlin June 15, 2023
Major Indexes Have Reached Bull Market Participation Levels | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Overextended Market Whimpers Into Weekend | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.16.23)
Overextended Market Whimpers Into Weekend | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.16.23) – YouTube
Bob Hoye: June 16, 2023 | Stock Markets Showing Technical Excesses
Stock Markets Showing Technical Excesses – HoweStreet
Mark Leibovit: June 15, 2023 | Summer Solstice Could See Change in Markets
Summer Solstice Could See Change in Markets – HoweStreet
AI Winners & Losers from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
AI Winners & Losers – Uncommon Sense Investor
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday and 13.00 last week to 70.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday and 8.20 last week to 65.60. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
Intermediate Barometer dropped 3.45 on Friday, but added 1.72 last week to 37.93. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 0.86 on Friday and 1.30 last week to 52.16. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications