Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 13th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Boeing advanced $7.36 to $204.01 after announcing sale of ninety 777 aircraft to Emirates for $52 billion.
Regions Financial added $0.10 to $15.22 after Odeon Capital upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
HP Inc gained $0.45 to $28.07 after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
Tyson Foods dropped $1.41 to $45.54 after reporting less than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/clip_image0041-4.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The performance of growth over value has just entered into a new phase”.
https://equityclock.com/2023/11/11/stock-market-outlook-for-november-13-2023/
The Bottom Line
The year-end rally by North American equity indices continued last week. Historically, the best period to own U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from the last week in October to the first week in January.
Focus this week is on expiry of the U.S. government debt ceiling on Friday. Failure to reach an agreement could trigger a closure of federal government services. On Friday after the close, Moody’s lowered its outlook on U.S. government debt from stable to negative. Market reaction will become apparent at the opening on Monday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Consensus earnings estimates for the third quarter of 2023 increased again last week. Ninety two percent of companies in the Index have reported to date. Updated consensus for the third quarter on a year-over-year basis is an earnings increase of 4.1% (versus a previous increase of 3.7%). Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 2.3%.
Estimates for the fourth quarter were lowered again. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.2% (versus previous increase of 3.9%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.3% (versus previous increase of 3.5%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.6% (versus previous increase of 0.9%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.3% (versus previous increase of 2.4%).
The recovery continues into 2024, but at a declining rate from last week. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 6.7 % (versus previous increase of 7.1%) and a revenue increase of 4.3% (versus previous increase of 4.4%). Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.5% earnings increase (versus previous increase of 10.8%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.1%). Consensus for all of 2024 is an increase in earnings of 11.6% (versus previous 11.9%) and a 5.5% increase in revenues.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
U.S. October Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in September. Excluding food and energy, October CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in September. On a year-over-year basis, October Core CPI is expected to increase 4.1% versus a gain of 4.1% in September.
U.S. October Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.5% in September. Excluding food and energy October PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in September
U.S. October Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop 0.1% versus a gain of 0.7% in September.
November Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to recover to -2.60 from -4.60 in October.
September Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in August.
November Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to -11.0 from -9.0 in October.
U.S. October Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST is expected to drop to 79.4% from 79.7% in September. October Industrial Production is expected to drop 0.4% versus an increase of 0.3% in September.
U.S. October Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip to 1.345 million units from 1.358 million units in September.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Twelve S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Home Depot, Cisco and Walmart). Two TSX 60 company is scheduled: Sun Life Financial and CAE.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Nov10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Nov.10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 11th
November 11th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Hightower’s Stephanie Link on her top stock picks: TGT, PWR, TDG
Hightower’s Stephanie Link on her top stock picks: TGT, PWR, TDG – YouTube
Bitcoin and Ethereum see gains after BlackRock files for Ethereum-based ETF
Bitcoin and Ethereum see gains after BlackRock files for Ethereum-based ETF – YouTube
Why is S&P 4400 So Important Right Now? NOVEMBER 10, 2023 David Keller
Why is S&P 4400 So Important Right Now? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Nasdaq’s Leadership Is Clear – Here’s What Needs to Happen for Further Upside
NOVEMBER 10, 2023 Mary Ellen McGonagle
November 10, 2023 | Why Are Central Banks Buying So Much Gold? Bob Hoye
Why Are Central Banks Buying So Much Gold? – HoweStreet
November 9, 2023 | Seasonality Could Boost Markets to a Record: Mark Leibovit
Seasonality Could Boost Markets to a Record – HoweStreet
November 9, 2023 | Uranium Looking Brighter All the Time: Sean Brodrick
Uranium Looking Brighter All the Time – HoweStreet
Nov 11, 2023: Trading Desk Notes For November 11, 2023
Trading Desk Notes For November 11, 2023 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Stock-divergence-rate-effect-sovereign-trouble-savings-fall-spooked-gold-energy-concern-attack-rumour.pdf
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P 500 Index $SPX moved above intermediate resistance at 4,393.57. Its related ETF SPY moved above intermediate resistance at $438.14.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance on Friday and extending an intermediate uptrend included Microsoft on a move above $366.01 to an all-time, KLA Corp on a move above $520.19 to an all-time high, Copart on a move above $47.38 to an all-time high and Electronic Arts on a move above $133.06
Taiwan iShares $EWT moved above intermediate resistance at $46.07
Platinum ETN $PPLT moved below $79.10 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Corn ETN $CORN moved below $21.74 extending an intermediate downtrend
Saputo $SAP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$26.74 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 8.60 on Friday, but slipped 1.00 last week to 49.40. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 3.40 on Friday, but slipped 2.40 last week to 41.40. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.08 on Friday, but dropped 12.78 to 44.93 last week to 44.93. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 0.88 on Friday, but dropped 3.97 last week to 37.44. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications