Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 4th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 17 points at 8:30 AM EST.
Alaska Airlines slipped $0.57 to $39.16 and Hawaiian Airlines jumped $8.85 to $13.71 after Alaska Airlines offered to purchase Hawaiian Airlines for $1.9 billion.
Bitcoin jumped $2,140.42 to $41,547.22 in overnight trade.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
Spot gold briefly touched an all-time high at US$2,095.70 in overnight trade.
Uber Technologies gained $2.70 to $60.05 after Oppenheimer raised its target price by $10 to $75. The stock has been added to the S&P 500 Index.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/clip_image0041.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “S&P 500 Index is back to resistance at the July high, presenting a pivotal point for the market heading into the tax-loss selling period that dominates the first half of December”.
https://equityclock.com/2023/12/02/stock-market-outlook-for-december-4-2023/
The Bottom Line
Momentum by North American equity markets remains strong during its current period of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. A word of caution! Strength frequently is damped temporarily by yearend transactions for tax purposes between now and December 15th. Thereafter, the Santa Claus rally ‘kicks in” until the end of the first week in January. Yearend strength is notable during U.S. Pre-election years.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts have started to revise earnings estimates slightly higher:
Consensus earnings estimates for the third quarter of 2023 increased again from estimates offered two weeks ago. Ninety eight percent of companies in the Index have reported to date. Consensus for the third quarter on a year-over-year basis is an earnings increase of 4.8% (versus a previous increase of 4.3%). Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 2.4%
Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 were increased slightly. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.0% (versus previous increase of 2.9%). Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.1% (versus previous increase of 3.2%). For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 0.8% (versus previous increase of 0.6%). Revenues are expected to increase 2.3%.
The recovery becomes more apparent in the first half of 2024. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 6.8 % (versus previous increase at 6.5%) and a revenue increase of 4.2%. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.9% earnings increase (versus previous increase at 10.4%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues. Consensus for all of 2024 calls for an increase in earnings of 11.7% (versus a previous increase of 11.6%) and a 5.4% increase in revenues.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
October Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to decline 2.6% versus a 2.8% gain in September
October ISM Non-manufacturing ISM PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to improve to 52.0 from 51.6 in September
Third quarter Non-farm Productivity released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 4.7% versus a 3.5% increase in the second quarter.
U.S. October Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to $64.10 billion from $61.50 billion in September.
Canadian October Trade Balance released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to ease to a $1.50 billion surplus from a $2.04 surplus in September.
Bank of Canada issues its interest rate decision at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday. Bank of Canada lending rate to major banks is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%
October Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to decline 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in September.
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks at 12:30 PM EST on Thursday.
November Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase to 180,000 from 150,000 in October. November Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from October at 3.9%. November Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. On a year-over-year basis, November Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 4.0% versus a 4.1% gain in October.
December Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 61.8 from 61.3 in November.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Interesting Chart
On Friday, gold in Canadian Dollars moved above Cdn$2,823.00 to an all-time high.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Dec.1st 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Dec.1st 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Dec.1st 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes from Friday
S&P 500 SPDRs $SPY moved above $457.82 to a 23 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Gold ETN $GLD moved above $191.36 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Global Base Metals iShares $PICK moved above $41.40 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX Global Base Metals iShares $XBM.TO moved above Cdn$17.75 completing a base building pattern. Individual base metal stock breakouts included BHP and Teck Resources.
Brazil iShares $EWZ moved above $34.34 extending an intermediate uptrend.
India ETF $PIN moved above $24.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Home Builders SPDRs $XHB moved above $84.92 and $84.93 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Steel ETF $SLX moved above $71.42 to a 15 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. Telecom iShares $IYZ moved above $21.84 setting an intermediate uptrend.
China large cap iShares $FXI moved below $24.84 extending an intermediate downtrend.
TSX 60 stocks moving above intermediate resistance on Friday extending intermediate uptrends included Manulife Financial, Teck Resources, National Bank and Rogers Communications.
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for December 2nd 2023
December 2nd Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
A Wyckoff Road Map For Election Year Seasonality | Power Charting (12.01.23)
Note seasonality comments and charts
BMO’s Brian Belski makes big moves in his portfolio
BMO’s Brian Belski makes big moves in his portfolio – YouTube
Pullback Imminent for Nasdaq 100 DECEMBER 01, 2023 David Keller
Pullback Imminent for Nasdaq 100 | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Nasdaq Flat But These Top Areas Outperform! | The MEM Edge (12.01.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKjDNyWm_Oc
This small cap party might just be getting started: Tom Bowley
Will market rally continue into 2024? Bob Hoye
Will Market Rally Continue into 2024? – HoweStreet
Gold showing new life. Mark Leibovit
Gold Showing New Life – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for December 2nd: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For December 2, 2023 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.80 on Friday and gained 10.00 last week to 86.00. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 5.60 on Friday and gained 8.80 last week to 66.60. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 7.93 on Friday to 73.57. It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer jumped 10.57 on Friday to 55.95. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 4th, 2023 at 1:02 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for your comments and chart over the weekend. I have not heard of XBIT so I tried looking it up. It does not seem to be an ETF, rather it is a small cap biotech company, trading on relatively low volume, so not something I would consider.
I tried sending a couple of links but my reply would not go through so I deleted them.