Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 11th
U.S. equity index futures were down this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 23 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Bitcoin added 2,618.55 to an all-time high at 71,642.09
Comcast added $0.04 to $42.62 after its film Oppenheimer won 7 Oscars last night.
Boeing dropped $2.59 to $195.90 after the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation on the Alaska Airline 737 door plug blow out.
The Bottom Line
Another mixed week for performance by North American equity markets! Signs of investor uncertainty increased: the VIX Index advanced 12%, Gold bullion ETN (GLD) gained 4.3%, Gold Equity ETF (GDX) advanced 8.4% and Bitcoin jumped 9.9%.
Equity markets outside of North America continue to outperform North American equity markets. Notably higher were Exchange Traded Funds tracking Europe, Australia, South Korea and China.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts slightly reduced estimates for the first quarter of 2024. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 3.4% (versus a 3.6% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.5% (versus a previous 3.6% increase).
Earnings gains accelerate thereafter to the end of 2024 (All-be-it at a slower rate) Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.0% earnings increase (versus a 9.2% increase last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a previous 4.7% increase). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings (versus a previous 8.3% increase) and a 5.1% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.2% increase in earnings (versus a previous 17.4% increase) and a 5.7% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.8% increase). For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings (versus a previous 10.9% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues.
Preliminary estimates were offered for fiscal 2025. Consensus calls for a 13.2% earnings increase and a 5.8% revenue increase.
Economic News This Week
February U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 3.1% versus a 3.1% increase in January. Excluding food and energy, February CPI.is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, February core CPI is expected to increase 3.7% versus a 3.9% increase in January.
February U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% increase in January On a year-over-year basis, February PPI is expected to increase 1.1% versus a gain of 0.9% in January. Excluding food and energy, February PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.5% in January.
February U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday released are expected to increase 0.5% versus a 0.8% decline January.
March Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to -6.50 from -2.40 in February.
February U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 78.4% from 78.5% in January February Industrial Production is expected to be unchanged versus a drop of -.1% in January.
March Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to be unchanged from February at 76.9.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 8th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 8th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 8th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Note
South Korea iShares $EWY moved above $66.30 extending an intermediate uptrend
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for March 9th 2024
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Top 10 Actionable Charts to Watch 2024: Grayson Roze and David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njKKySxu9hQ
Small Caps Breaking Out BULLISHL David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VD98qqO3K2A
Gold’s Complex Base & Wyckoff Analysis: Bruce Fraser
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azf7EYQ-YXY
You Need To Realize ONE Important Fact With Big Rallies Like This One: Tom Bowley
Gold, Bitcoin, US Dollar: Mark Leibovit
Gold, Bitcoin, US Dollar – HoweStreet
Bob Hoye: (14:59) Interest Rates, Central Banks, The Fed, Recession, Bitcoin.
This Week in Money – HoweStreet
Victor Adair: Trading Desk Notes For March 9, 2024
Trading Desk Notes For March 9, 2024 – HoweStreet
Danielle Park: Central Banks Sit Tight as Pain Spreads
Central Banks Sit Tight as Pain Spreads – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and gained 8.60 last week to 77.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday and gained and gained 4.00 last week. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.00 to 64.44 on Friday and gained 4.00 last week to 64.44. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 4.89 last week. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 11th, 2024 at 10:53 am
NVDA – I saw the chief technical analyst from Raymond James express concern on BNN this morning. Scary! On a fundamental basis it is not at all overpriced. The GTC tech conference is coming March 18-21 and Jensen Huang is the keynote speaker. Expect positive news. Anyone who prefers to run for the hills can watch from the hill tops.
March 11th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
I just watched the video from the list above: Gold’s Complex Base & Wyckoff Analysis: Bruce Fraser. I don’t claim to understand it all – Wyckoff is hard but it looks good. Here is my modified chart which I made a long time ago from David Chapman’s writings (EnrichedInvesting.com), also linked above. The chart speaks for itself but note the recent outperformance of $GOLD over $SPX. Off course that still has a long way to go in order to really become a strong uptrend.
https://schrts.co/KhXMYDQJ
March 11th, 2024 at 7:10 pm
Gold – Interesting coincidence of your post Paula because I just made the decision today to be a buyer.
I attach below JPMorgan’s statement on how “cheap” the Mag Seven are though there may be cyclicality in earnings. I viewed Jensen Huang’s interview on March 5th at Stanford where when asked about competitors’ chips he said that even if they offered them for free they still couldn’t compete on a “total cost of operations” basis. The units NVDA offers eliminate the need for all sorts of hardware that is extremely costly. NVDA has improved units coming down the pipeline every calendar year and the barrier to entry for competition is very expensive and research intensive. You won’t see anyone catch up to them in the next few years.
https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/bubble-magnificent-7-stocks-actually-222829612.html