Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 1st
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
June Gold futures gained another $26.80 to US$2,254.80 per ounce in pre-opening trade.
Tesla added $1.20 to $176.99 after the company raised the price of its Model Y car in the United States by $1,000.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
United Parcel Services advanced $2.75 to $151.38 after reaching an air cargo deal to expand its United States Postal Service Partnership.
![clip_image002[2]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0022.png "clip_image002[2]")
FedEx dropped $5.94 to $283.80 after the company confirmed expiry of its contract with United States Postal Services on September 29th.
The Bottom Line
World equity markets were mixed last week, typical when intermediate momentum indicators are overbought: U.S. equity indices moved in a narrow trading range. S&P 500 Index gained 0.39% and the NASDAQ Composite Index slipped 0.30%. ETFs representing European, Canadian and Merging Markets were slightly higher. ETFs representing Far East markets were slightly lower
Finally, an all-time inter-day high for the TSX Composite Index! High for the Index on Thursday was 22,220.91, beating the previous all-time high at 22,213.07set on April 5th 2022.
Most of the upside action last week occurred in the Commodity sector, led by gold. Strength in the sector was recorded despite strength in the U.S. Dollar Index.
February Core PCE Price Index released on Friday morning is expected to have a mixed impact on U.S. equity markets on Monday. Consensus was a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. Actual was an increase of 2.8%.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts slightly increased earnings estimates and slightly reduced revenue estimates for the first quarter of 2024. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 3.6% (versus a 3.4% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.5% (versus a 3.6% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (versus a 9.3% increase last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.5% increase in earnings (versus a previous 8.4% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.1% increase).
Impressive earnings gains were lowered for the fourth quarter. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings (versus a previous 17.4% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.8% increase).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings (versus a previous increase of 10.9%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.1% increase)
Estimates for fiscal 2025 were raised slightly. Consensus calls for a 13.4% earnings increase (versus previous 13.3% increase) and a 6.0% revenue increase (versus a previous 5.9% increase).
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
March U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a decline of 0.2% in February
March ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 48.5 from 47.8 in February.
February U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 1.0% versus a decline of 0.8% in January.
March ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to slip to 52.5 from 52.6 in February.
February U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to ease to $66.50 billion from $67.40 billion in January.
February Canadian Trade is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday
March U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop to 198,000 from 275,000 in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from February at 3.9%. March Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in February. On a year-over- year basis, March Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 4.1% versus a gain of 4.3% in February.
Canadian March Employment Change released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to gain 20,000 versus a gain of 40,700 in February.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 28th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 28th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 28th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 30th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Germans About to Legalize Pot: Mark Leibovit
Achtung Baby! Germans About to Legalize Pot – HoweStreet
S&P 7000 by end of 2024?! Dave Keller and David Hunter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMKSWU-c1oU
Best Start to a Year for Stocks since 2019: Buy Adami, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI_wTzxN8Ao
Stock Picks Poised For Success: Danielle Shay
Stock Picks Poised For Success – YouTube
I’d Rather Be A Bull with David Rosenberg |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-f9LoRwpIQ
An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum: Arthur Hill
An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum | Art’s Charts | StockCharts.com
Core PCE Data Has Powell Pleased – May Set Tone For Q2: Mary Ellen McGonagle
Core PCE Data Has Powell Pleased – May Set Tone For Q2 | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com
One Month of Positive Seasonality Remaining — OBV Says, "Maybe Not." Carl Swelin
Low VIX: Warning Sign for Bear Market? Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLNL-lmgUas
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 30, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_K09cdAqaM
Stock Markets First Quarter a Near Record High: Bob Hoye
Stock Markets First Quarter a Near Record High – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Report For March 30, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Report For March 30, 2024 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Notes for Thursday
Mexico iShares $EWW moved above $69.39 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Russell 2000 iShares $IWM moved above $209.88 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P Oil & Gas Exploration SPDRs $XOP moved above $152.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Chevron $CVX an S&P 100 stock moved above $152.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$69.71 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Agnico-Eagle $AEM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$59.22 and Cdn$80.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and gained 8.40 last week to 85.20. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer gained 1.40 on Friday and advanced 5.00 to 85.30 last week, a 33 month high. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.79 on Friday, but gained 2.23 last week to 72.32. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 2.23 to 75.89 on Friday and gained 4.80 last week to 75.89. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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April 1st, 2024 at 1:01 pm
BCE – Down 38.4% from its’ high in April 2022. At $45 its’ never been lower in over 10 years. Forward div of 8.58% with some concern about whether it can be sustained. I’m wondering if this is a buy if it gets down around $43-44. Target prices put out in Feb range from $51 to $57. Looking at the lowest target price the div and capital appreciation combined at present prices adds up to 20%. If we get a market pull-back I would watch how BCE’s share price behaves relative to the rest of the market. Right now BCE is one of the biggest falling knives around which calls for a strong stomach and patience if you want to buy and hold. Theoretically BCE as a bond proxy should rise if and when we get rate cuts. I’m curious if anyone else is looking at BCE.
April 1st, 2024 at 4:06 pm
BCE looks very interesting right now, I usually buy when dividend stocks get hammered. There was a G&M article a few weekends ago about BCE possibly cutting the dividend or just doing very little dividend increases going forward. Also, shares of Telus have been beaten down of late.
April 1st, 2024 at 5:38 pm
Here is a 10 year chart of BCE. Price has reacted above and below the $34 mark the last few years and that is where price is presently with the RSI 8 oversold. It is also at the support line of the Descending Triangle as well. Not the best chart to buy off of but something to think about.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66460689773&a=1645665450
The Seasonal Trend chart is bullish in May,June and July.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=BCE
As always draw your own conclusions……………..
April 1st, 2024 at 6:00 pm
Here is a 10 year Weekly chart of Telus.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T.TO&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14600738541&a=1645675122
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=T.TO
April 1st, 2024 at 8:28 pm
Here is my weekly chart of BCE.TO. It’s slightly different than Ron/BC’s US version:
https://schrts.co/HGSyJTgP
April 1st, 2024 at 9:57 pm
Thanks everyone for your comments and charts. I’m just going to keep an eye on it and wait for it to show definite signs of putting in a bottom. Overall there are plenty of other things you can put your money in right now.