Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 8th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Tesla added $2.85 to $167.83 after Elon Musk announced the unveiling of a robo taxi in August.
AZZ added $0.38 to $79.00 after raising sales and revenue guidance for fiscal 2025.
![clip_image002[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0025.png "clip_image002[5]")
Boeing dropped $1.92 to $183.14 and Southwest Airlines dropped $0.27 to $28.07 after an engine part on one of Southwest Airlines’ aircraft detached.
![clip_image004[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0045.png "clip_image004[5]")
The Bottom Line
World equity indices moved slightly lower last week. Exceptions were the TSX Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index.
Industrial commodities and related equities continued to move higher. ‘Tis the season for industrial commodity prices and their related Exchange Traded Funds to move higher until early June!
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts slightly reduced earnings estimates for the first quarter of 2024. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 3.2% (versus a 3.6% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.5%.
Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 4.7% increase in revenues (versus a 4.6% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.5% increase in earnings and a 5.2% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.0% increase).
Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.5% increase in earnings and a 5.8% increase in revenues.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.9% increase in earnings (versus a previous increase of 11.0%) and a 5.1% increase in revenues.
Estimates for fiscal 2025 were raised slightly. Consensus calls for a 13.4% earnings increase (versus previous 13.3% increase) and a 5.9% revenue increase (versus a previous 6.0% increase).
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
March U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, March CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in February.
Bank of Canada statement on interest rates is released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday. A press conference is offered at 10:30 AM EDT. The overnight lending rate to Canada’s major banks is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%.
March U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in February. Excluding food and energy, March PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in February.
March Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Focus is on first quarter reports by three major banks on Friday.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 5th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
The Canadian Dollar briefly moved below US73.33 cents on Friday to a four month low. Responded to a weaker than consensus Canadian employment report for March!
Commodity iShares $GSG moved above $22.95 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Biotech iShares $IBB moved below intermediate support at $131.15.
Adobe $ADBE an S&P 100 stock moved below $485.00 extending an intermediate downtrend.
ON Semiconductor $ON a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $68.78.
Tesla $TSLA an S&P 100 stock moved below $160.51 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 6th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Current Market correction was predicted: Mark Leibovit
Current Market Correction Was Predicted – HoweStreet
Two Options Plays Amid Market Sell Off: David Keller and Sean McLaughlin
Two Options Plays Amid Market Sell Off – YouTube
Breaking Down the S&P 500 April Anomaly: Tom Bowley
Breaking Down the S&P 500 April Anomaly – YouTube
The “Calamity” Trade in Markets: Buy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses
The "Calamity" Trade in Markets | On The Tape Stock &Investing Podcast – YouTube
Rate cuts and March jobs report: Fed is ‘not there yet,’ strategist says
Rate cuts and March jobs report: Fed is ‘not there yet,’ strategist says – YouTube
Friday’s strong jobs numbers will limit the Fed to two interest rate cuts, says Diane Swonk
Is Talk of Hyperinflation Just Hype? Bob Hoye
Is Talk of Hyperinflation Just Hype? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes For April 6, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For April 6, 2024 – HoweStreet
Stock Markets, Interest Rates, Home Prices: Danielle Park
Stock Markets, Interest Rates, Home Prices – HoweStreet
Gold Rally Real This Time? Rick Ackerman
Gold Rally Real This Time? – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.80 on Friday, but dropped 12.40 last week to 72.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and dropped 7.20 last week to 78.60. It remains Overbought
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.91 on Friday, but dropped 5.80 last week to 66.52. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.89 on Friday, but dropped 3.46 last week to 71.43. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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April 8th, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Paula
Here is a REIT that has plenty of volume.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRE.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97612540759&a=1650426781
April 8th, 2024 at 2:30 pm
More talk about mortgage rate cuts as the unemployment rate is now 6.1%. What did they expect when they brought in 1/2 million new migrants into Canada in 2022 and again in 2023. While everyone other than Indigenous peoples were originally decedents of migrants at some point, flooding the country with a million new people in two years was bound to cause problems. There is an extreme housing shortage in all types of housing and mortgage rates are still high and rents are way above a high percentage of renters. And they claim young people including university graduates can’t find jobs. Meanwhile I see 1 year GIC rates are are still well above 5%. I have two TFSAs coming due in May so will likely buy another couple TFSA at those rates.
April 8th, 2024 at 2:47 pm
We are screwed on housing. RBC says we need 50% more housing starts until 2030 just to keep up with new demand. They state the obvious in their report that if we are going to bring in immigrants we need them to be construction workers. Years ago just under 10% of new immigrants were in the construction trades and now it is just over 2%. The US has no comparable housing shortage. They get plenty of additional construction workers every year from Latin America.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-housing-crisis-poised-to-worsen-without-major-reforms-rbc/
April 8th, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for your XBM.TO chart yesterday
and your XRE.TO chart today. I always appreciate your perspective.
April 8th, 2024 at 9:17 pm
Paula
Thanks for the compliment.I’d like to get a good handle on trading REITS that are relative to the condo market here. Just don’t know where exactly to get started. Perhapa some ratio chart is the answer. Using an interest rate chart might be a good choice to start. A good combination might be easier than moving every year or two.