Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 19th
U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 8:30 AM EDT.
Netflix dropped $22.56 to $588.00 despite reporting a higher than consensus increase in subscribers. Also, first quarter revenues and earnings beat consensus.
![clip_image001[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0015-2.png "clip_image001[5]")
KB Homes gained $1.59 to $62.00 after the company lifted its dividend by 25% and authorized a $1 Billon share buyback program.
![clip_image002[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0025-3.png "clip_image002[5]")
PPG Industries dropped $0.57 to $134.54 after reporting less than consensus first quarter revenues. The company also announced a $2.5 billion share buyback program.
![clip_image003[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0035-1.png "clip_image003[5]")
Procter & Gamble dropped $1.39 to $155.50 after reporting less than consensus first quarter revenues.
![clip_image004[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/clip_image0045-3.png "clip_image004[5]")
Technical Notes
Technology SPDRs $XLK moved below $196.74 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Lam Research $LRCX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $905.60 completing a double top pattern.
QualComm $QCOM an S&P 100 stock moved below $163.63 completing a double top pattern.
Thermo Fisher $TMO an S&P 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $534.06
Intuitive Surgical $ISRG a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $371.00 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Monster Beverages $MNST a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $53.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Cadence Design Systems $CDNS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below$284.79 extending an intermediate downtrend
Take Two Interactive $TTWO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $141.45 extending an intermediate downtrend.
UnitedHealth Group $UNH a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above intermediate resistance at $496.20.
Wells Fargo $WFC an S&P 100 stock moved above $58.44 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Semiconductors Are at CRITICAL Level! David Keller
Semiconductors Are at CRITICAL Level! – YouTube
Warning Signs of Worsening Market Conditions: Dave Landry
Warning Signs of Worsening Market Conditions – YouTube
Morgan Stanley analyst weighs in on AI stocks to watch: Stephen Burd
Morgan Stanley analyst weighs in on AI stocks to watch – YouTube
This is Just the Beginning of the CRASH: Jeff Huge
This is Just the Beginning of the CRASH – YouTube
Bostic Says Fed Likely Won’t Cut Rates Until End of Year
Bostic Says Fed Likely Won’t Cut Rates Until End of Year – YouTube
Cracks Appearing in the Markets Foundation: Tom Bowley
Cracks Appearing in the Markets Foundation – YouTube
MoneyTalk – Federal Budget 2024: The highlights and the economic implications
MoneyTalk – Federal Budget 2024: The highlights and the economic implications – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.80 to 30.80. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer was unchanged at 69.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.89 to 50.45. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 1.34 to 64.73. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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April 19th, 2024 at 12:51 pm
The $SPX continues to sell off. Price is oversold but still below the RSI 50 line. Next support is 4030 but watch for the RSI to cross back above the 50 line for a “short term” bounce back.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75407868502&a=1592062075
April 19th, 2024 at 12:54 pm
#1 should read: Watch for the RSI 8 cross back above the 30 line for a “short term” bounce back.
Just don’t hold your breath waiting……………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75407868502&a=1592062075
April 19th, 2024 at 6:01 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for these charts. It looks like the next support is 4900?
I still think it will be interesting to see how much of the gain from the October low will be given up.
April 19th, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Paula
Yes, 4930 area is the next support level. I can’t seem to read my own chart prices. I guess I’m just losing it. But at some point the RSI 8 will cross back above the 30 line and price will bounce back “somewhat” then. Gotta be quick as you never know how much of a bounce you’ll get then. Could be a dead cat bounce or something more serious. But expect that to occur at any time now. Several support levels below, so hard to say how much of a selloff will occur. A bounce on the way down will occur regardless and will likely fail and then plunge further. Could be tough to play……….
Here is a longer term chart and one can see much stronger support at 4800 so if 4900 is tested a spike to 4800 would be a good bet to buy. But to each their own it seems………
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10256094711&a=939923011
April 20th, 2024 at 12:31 pm
Here is the Seasonal Trend chart for the $SPX. May,June and July are strong bullish trend months historically. No guarantee, but nice to know if you are long……………
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24SPX
April 21st, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for the longer-term chart and the levels. I was looking through my chart list and came across this chart of yours that I saved. I changed to Elder bars and added the ADX indicator. I extended the lines that you drew from 4682 to 4793. The 200 EMA is currently in between these lines and seems like a possible down side target where there is good support. Your Modified MACD has only recently turned down so it seems to me that the market needs more time to unwind the excessive momentum from the last 5 months. The RSI (21) still has a way to go before getting oversold.
Of course, anything can happen and there is likely to be a bounce soon before going lower.
https://schrts.co/HEkGjXRc
April 21st, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Paula
Thanks for bring this chart up again. This is basically the same chart but with a 1/2 sized Modified MACD (25/100/9 which catches the price highs and low nicely. The RSI 8 tends to catch short term lows but you often just get a dead cat bounce. The 1/2 sized Modified MACD is far more accurate and timely at price highs and lows. So you tend to get a better bounce back. I haven’t back tested it for months or years but this chart is an example of that. Just one more way to analyze the chart. I haven’t used the ADX for years so don’t recall its best use.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25082622871&a=1660635876
April 21st, 2024 at 6:00 pm
Paula
I used to track the percentage change of a selloff as 1/3 or 1/2 or 2/3 would often see price stabilize at these levels. Can’t seem to find the indicator that just snaps on the chart if there ever was one.