Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday June 25th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 8 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
The Canadian Dollar rose 0.20 to US73.32 cents following release of Canada’s May Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was an increase of 2.6% versus a gain of 2.6% in April. Actual was an increase of 2.9%.
Pool Corp plunged $36.81 to $301.10 after the company offered earning guidance below consensus.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/clip_image0011-8.png "clip_image001[1]")
MicroStrategy added $42.85 to $1415.00. Semi-conductor stocks such as MicroStrategy moved higher in overnight trade.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/clip_image0021-9.png "clip_image002[1]")
FedEx advanced $4.23 to $256.51 prior to release of fiscal fourth quarter results after the close today.
![clip_image001[2]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/clip_image0012.png "clip_image001[2]")
Birkenstock dropped $1.98 to $57.80 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for June 25th
Setting up for the summer rally, followed by the period of volatility for stocks, spanning the third quarter.
See: https://equityclock.com/2024/06/24/stock-market-outlook-for-june-25-2024/
Technical Notes
Biotech ETFs $BBH, $IBB and $FBT moved above intermediate resistance levels.
‘Tis the season for Biotech ETFs to move higher to late September!
Seasonal Chart Analysis from www.EquityClock.com
Analysis of the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASD:IBB) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of May 10 and a Sell Date of September 21 has resulted in a geometric average return of 4.2% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 20 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 15 of those periods. This is a good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 20 years by an average of 4.55% per year.
IBM $IBM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above intermediate resistance at $175.39.
Merck $MRK a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $132.31
Coca Cola Enterprises $CCEP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $75.43 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Coca Cola $KO a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock also broke to an all-time high.
Roper Technologies $ROP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $563.45 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Baker Hughes $BKR moved above $34.39 extending an intermediate uptrend.
DexCom $DXCM moved below $113.05 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 24th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 24th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 24th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Top Picks by Jeff Parent on BNN Bloomberg’s “Market Call” on Monday
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/jeff-parent-s-top-picks~2946258
Goldman Sachs analyst sees potential for the U.S. Dollar
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – June 22, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXNkhw2-a5U
Next Canadian Association for Technical Analysis Meeting
It will be offered on Thursday June 27th at 8:00 PM EDT. Speaker on Zoom is Victor Adair. Everyone is welcome. Not a member of CATA. Contact https://canadianata.ca/content.aspx?page_id=4&club_id=71614
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 6.40 to 60.00. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on the move to/above60.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.00 to 71.80. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 11.25 to 41.89. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer jumped 9.91 to 67.12. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on the move above 60.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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June 25th, 2024 at 11:50 am
NVDA – Nice support at the 20dayMA. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is 115.86 and we only got down to 118.04 with lower levels in the 116 range in overnight trading. Cramer’s take this morning was that there are enough holders of NVDA that are itching to get out making any attempt to rebound fail. My take is that there is still FOMO out there that will bring out buyers that will balance out or even overwhelm any weak hands. The reason for this is that the fundamental case on NVDA has not changed one iota. Overall I don’t see reason for it to make new highs until the market sees the next earnings report around Aug 22. We may get industry reports that could give a positive spin such as when MU reports tomorrow but generally the stock should be in consolidation until the third week of August.
June 25th, 2024 at 12:55 pm
Here is a chart of the Financial ETF:XLF that tracks U.S. Financial sector. Above is a ratio chart of XLF:XFN.to which is the Canadian Financial ETF. The U.S.Financials have been outperforming the Canadian financials this year especially.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=XLF&a=673066215&id=p51523859779