Pre-opening Comments for Friday June 28th
U.S equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 18 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures slipped 4 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT.
Core May PCE Price Index was expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in April. Actual was unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, Core May PCE Price Index was expected to drop to 2.6% from 2.8% in April. Actual was 2.6%. May Personal Income was expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. Actual was a 0.5% increase. May Personal Spending was expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in April. Actual was a 0.2% increase.
Nike dropped $9.19 to $85.00 after reporting fiscal fourth quarter revenues below consensus. The company also offered fiscal 2025 guidance below consensus.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/clip_image0011-10.png "clip_image001[1]")
Infinera gained $1.05 to $6.31 after Nokia agreed to purchase the company at $6.65 per share. Value of the offer is $2.3 billion.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/clip_image0021-11.png "clip_image002[1]")
Trump Media and Technology advanced $4.20 to $40.93 amid consensus that Trump beat Biden in the debate last night.
EquityClock’s stock-market-outlook-for-june-28th 2024
If there is a foreseeable influence that could derail the summer rally, it could be the appreciation of the US Dollar.
See: https://equityclock.com/2024/06/27/stock-market-outlook-for-june-28-2024/
Next Tech Talk report
Although Monday, July 1st is a national statutory holiday here in Canada, Tech Talk will be published. (*Important economic news from the U.S. is scheduled for release (i.e. June ISM Manufacturing PMI and May Construction Spending at 10:00 AM EDT).
Technical Notes
Salesforce.com $CRM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $246.75 completing double bottom pattern.
Walgreens Boots $WBA an S&P 100 stock moved below $14.62 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Kinross Gold $KGC a TSX 60 stock moved above US$8.24 to a four year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are positive from July 8th to October 15th .
Rogers Communications $RCI.B.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$50.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks
Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear on the show starting at 11:30 AM EDT on Saturday. Connect at https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 27th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Two Consumer Stocks Popping to New Swing Highs! Dave Keller
Two Consumer Stocks Popping to New Swing Highs! – YouTube
Stock Picks & Trading Opportunities for Earnings Season! Danielle Shay
Stock Picks & Trading Opportunities for Earnings Season! – YouTube
MASSIVE Market Leadership Rotation Happening RIGHT NOW! Tom Bowley
MASSIVE Market Leadership Rotation Happening RIGHT NOW! – YouTube
Is a summer sell-off coming? Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
Is A Summer Sell-Off Coming? – YouTube
Inflation is going to fall like a rock, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
Inflation is going to fall like a rock, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.00 to 50.40. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 0.20 to 68.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer jumped 9.95 to 47.79. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.
The long term Barometer advanced 5.12 to 65.93. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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June 28th, 2024 at 12:39 pm
The bank stocks are still in a descent uptrend. Here is RY.to along with a ratio chart of RY.to:ZEB.to. Nothing much wrong with this chart……………..yet.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=RY.TO&a=678758555&id=p95116121413
June 29th, 2024 at 5:23 pm
For the sake of opening up some more discussion, here is a chart on XBI that I follow. On the weekly, the ADX has just turned up with the +DI (green) above the -DI (red). (It is hard to see but I track the ADX number on a spreadsheet and it has turned up.) I have found this to be a good signal for a buy. The vertical lines with the corresponding colours indicate how this has worked over the last few years. I have talked about this before: green = up trend = buy; blue = change from trend to trading range; red = down trend = sell. There is heavy resistance at the 100 price, indicated by the solid horizontal red line. I expect to at least test this level. As our host and Equity Clock have stated, the summer months are usually bullish for biotech so perhaps this will provided some tailwinds. Within the wide trading range of ~ 62 – 90, there have been a number of trading opportunities over the last four years.
Ron/BC this is a modified version of an old chart of yours. Your method of using the RSI(8) for buy and sell signals seems to correspond with some of my blue lines when the trend has changed from down to trading range. Sometimes NOT going down anymore seems to allow this ETF to pop up a significant amount before finding resistance. A couple of examples of this is are just before July 2022 and October 2024.
https://schrts.co/GimsYBma
June 29th, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Paula
Thanks for the chart and comments. I agree the $100 price is the top of a multi month channel resistance. Price must clear AND hold above this level to be a valid breakout. I should have mentioned about the RSI 8 when recrossing back above the 30 line. If price is in a solid pronounced downtrend the bounce back may only be good for intra day traders as it will be weak. The best signals are when price is in an uptrend after a selloff.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55532219719&a=1713831906
June 30th, 2024 at 3:58 pm
Ron/BC
I appreciate your updated chart and comments. Yes, when there was the pronounced downtrend from early 2021 until summer of 2022, any rally was just a short-term bounce, including when the RSI 8 crossed back above the 30 line three times. It was with the most recent cross in late October 2023, perhaps from a triple bottom, that there was more upward force and XBI was able to make a new trading range high ~ 103. I wouldn’t call what is happening now to be an strong uptrend, just a continuation of a short-term bounce within a large trading range. There just might be the potential for more with the turn up of the ADX and the +DI, along with the seasonality benefit. I hesitate to mention it but there is also a possible cup and handle pattern forming. Still with that strong resistance at ~ 100, it may just be good for another short-term trade. All these lines seem to illustrate that there is no fool proof indicator LOL.
June 30th, 2024 at 5:15 pm
Paula
A trader could have a short sale at $100.
June 30th, 2024 at 8:48 pm
Paula
RE:#4
Any trade you put on should have a stop loss on it regardless of how great the story is on it. This is especially true when a stock has become “the belle of the ball.” If it’s too good to be true it probably is. A chart that shows price soaring to the moon is invariably going to come back to earth every time. The past examples are endless…………………..
July 1st, 2024 at 11:42 am
Paula
Re:#2
Nice post on XBI. If I could add anything, it would be to watch the MACD. It has pullback towards the zero line and is now rising. I would like to see it cross the signal line — it is very close, but not there yet. I would be even more encouraged if the +DI on the ADX also moved above the 25 level — it is also very close, but not there yet.
July 1st, 2024 at 12:29 pm
Ron/BC,
Re #5: I have no appetite for shorting these days. Too risky. I’d rather just sit out and collect interest.
Re #6: Wise words…
July 1st, 2024 at 12:30 pm
FishFat
Re #7: Thanks for your comments. You are correct on MACD and the +DI on the ADX. They are even closer this morning but not quite there yet.
July 1st, 2024 at 1:07 pm
Paula/Fish/Fat
Here is a one year solid line chart of XBI.I prefer Daily charts of about one year myself as it seems to get closer to the price action. The solid line ignores the daily zigs and zags. One can clearly see the support at 86 and resistance at 94 plus the falling volume sine the Feb high. I’ve never had a good handle on the basic MACD or ADX14. So I stick to what I do have a good handle on. So price is stuck between 86 support which goes back a year and resistance at 94. A test of either could see a possible trade. The Seasonal TRend chart is bullish until the end of August.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=XBI&a=1713831906&id=p62451539920
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=XBI
July 1st, 2024 at 3:38 pm
Ron/BC re:#10
I never considered it, but, using the solid line presentation is a useful way to look at resistance/support levels. The solid line is of course based on the closing price – which can be more meaningful that intra-day highs and lows. It is often said that amateurs trade at the open and pros at the close. I agree with important resistance around $94. On my charts (using intra day pricing) I had identified resistance at a similar level of $95.50 (or thereabouts). It appears we are in the same ballpark.
July 1st, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Ron/BC
Re #10
Thanks for the daily chart. Of course, I look at the daily but I like to consider the weekly first. It shows the bigger picture which tells me whether to drill down to the daily for more immediate price action and when to enter or exit. I like the solid line to filter out the noise but I also like the Elder bars with the colour coding green for bull, red for bear and blue for neutral.
I notice that you are using a new version on stockcharts. I have not converted yet. Guess I don’t like to change LOL
https://schrts.co/cxGTgfjG
July 1st, 2024 at 7:36 pm
Paula
I don’t like to change either but thought I didn’t have a choice. I’ll call them about turning my charts back to the previous type.