Pre-opening Comments for Monday July 15th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 24 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures were unchanged following release of the July Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an improvement to -5.50 from -6.00 in June. Actual was -6.60.
Cleveland Cliffs slipped $0.42 to $15.75 after reaching an agreement to purchase Stelco Holdings for a cash and stock deal valued at $60 Cdn per share. Value of the deal is $2.5 billion. Stelco closed on Friday at $Cdn $37.36.
AutoNation dropped $0.99 to $169.49 after the company issued a profit warning for the second quarter.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0021-5.png "clip_image002[1]")
Apple advanced $4.52 to $235.06 after confirming stronger than consensus sales in India.
Blackrock added $3.10 to $827.97 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/clip_image0041-4.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for July 15th
Interest rate sensitive segments of the market break out as inflationary pressures breakdown. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/07/13/stock-market-outlook-for-july-15-2024/
The Bottom Line
The Summer Rally continues. All-time highs were set by broadly based equity indices including TSX Composite Index, S&P/TSX 60 Index, S&P 500 Index, Equal Weight S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Australia All Ordinaries and Nikkei Average! Equity markets are responding to encouraging second quarter results released by major companies and expectations that interest rates set by central banks in the U.S., Canada and Europe will come down soon.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Second quarter results released to date were mildly encouraging. Twenty seven companies have reported. Their results prompted FactSet to increase their year-over-year earnings estimate for the second quarter from a gain of 8.8% to a gain of 9.3%. Revenue estimate increased from a gain of 4.6% to a gain of 4.8%.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
June U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.1% in May. Excluding auto sales, June U.S. Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in May.
June Canadian Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday
June Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in May.
June U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 1.31 million units from 1.277 million units in May.
June Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase to 78.6% from 78.2% in May. June Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.7% in May.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday
July Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 2.9 from 1.3 in June.
June Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.3% versus a drop of 0.5% in May.
June Canadian Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Another 45 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including five Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Comments offered by valued providers
How To Manage Risk Using Technical Analysis [Expert Insight]: David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yoO7TXy1fI
RBC’s Lori Calvasina Reveals Latest S&P 500 Outlook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEpE_gyD8KM
A bumpy day for the major stock markets: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2024/07/a-bumpy-day-for-the-major-stock-markets-mark-leibovit
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for July 13th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Is It Time To SELL Your MAG 7 Stocks? Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6rRuSCMN-o
Pre-Earnings Moves Are Underway And History Provides Us GREAT Clues To Find Them! Tom Bowley
Citi Predicts $3,000 Gold by 2025 — What You Need to Know
Citi Predicts $3,000 Gold by 2025 — What You Need to Know | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com
Silver’s AI Boom: The Next Big Trade You Need to Know About
The Advantages of Buying Junior Gold Stocks: Bob Hoye
The Advantages of Buying Junior Gold Stocks – HoweStreet
OPEC Production Cuts: Josef Schachter
OPEC Production Cuts – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes For July 13, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For July 13, 2024 – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop for July 15th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF $RSP moved above $169.12 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Japan iShares $EWJ moved above $71.54 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Health Care SPDRs $XLV moved above $147.65 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Financials SPDRs $XLF moved above $42.32 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Russell 2000 iShares $IWM moved above $211.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. Real Estate iShares $IYR moved above $91.53 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Transportation Average iShares $IYT moved above $65.79 completing a double bottom pattern.
BMO Dow Jones Industrial Average units ZDJ.TO moved above $61.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved above $399.83 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above resistance and extending intermediate uptrends included Ford, Monster Beverages, Cognizant Technology, Berkshire Hathaway, Analog Devices, ON Semiconductor and Duke Energy
Gildan Activwear $GIL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$53.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Brookfield $BN a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$61.48 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.80 on Friday and jumped 24.60 last week to 70.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 3.80 and gained 9.40 last week to 74.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.75 on Friday and gained 14.25 last week to 79.65.
It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 2.21 on Friday and gained 11.50 last week to 79.20
It remains Overbought. Daily trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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July 15th, 2024 at 11:08 am
Energy – XLE, XOP – It’s been a long long wait but it looks like we may have put in a double bottom. I’d like to see a couple more bullish candlesticks.
AAPL – Anyone else thinking this rally is getting too overextended and in need of a pull-back maybe to test the 220 breakout and the 20dayMA? It will probably keep going despite my reservations. MSFT in contrast just dropped down to its’ 20 day MA and is bouncing off it. In relative performance I am wondering if we are going to see a switch soon between these two names.
July 15th, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Big bounce back with TD.to after a strong selloff from late April. Now very overbought though…….. And yes, there is a story out there if you need one,lol…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75053722961&a=673066261
July 15th, 2024 at 12:10 pm
AAPL – I missed Morgan Stanley’s target raise this morning to 273 helping to keep the stock on the boil for today.
July 15th, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Ron/BC,
I agree very overbought on daily but not so much on weekly. There is also still room up to the descending trendline – pink. The ADX is now descending – blue vertical – meaning the downtrend is over or at least paused. There is room for possible buy signals on the MACD and the TD:XIU ratio. If the price crosses the pink down trendline, it could try to test the light red horizontal area resistance.
https://schrts.co/tUyeVMNT
July 15th, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Paula
Thanks for the chart. I’ve never had a good handle on the ADX Indicator. I’ve never liked to trade with Weekly Indicators either. Too long term for me I guess. I don’t think one can post hourly charts of Stockcharts. Maybe that’s a good thing,lol.
July 15th, 2024 at 11:47 pm
Ron / Paula
Thanks for the comments on Sat, I see BNS, TD, BMO all look to be very overbought at this point. Based on the seasonals, BNN’s Friday July 12th Javed Mirza suggested end of July some bumpiness to pick up through to Sept. While you can always go longer than 2 weeks in a overbought/oversold range, I suspect we may see the RSI on these start to turn down later this month or early next which could be the timing for a trade.