Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 16th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 26 points at 8:35 AM EDT
S&P 500 futures dropped 9 points following release of U.S. July Housing Starts report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop to 1.350 million units from 1.363 million units in June. Actual was a drop to 1.238 million units.
H&R Block added $4.61 to $62.10 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter results. The company also raised its dividend by 17%.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Applied Materials dropped $6.30 to $205.53 after reporting fiscal third quarter results below consensus.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
Fox added $1.00 to $39.99 after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to Buy
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0031-7.png "clip_image003[1]")
Microchip Technology gained $1.70 to $83.00 after Piper Jaffrey upgraded the stock to Buy.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/clip_image0041-4.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for August 16th
Consumer spending snapped back in July, but a more discerning consumer mentality remains. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/08/15/stock-market-outlook-for-august-16-2024/
Wolf on Bay Street
Don Vialoux was a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street”. The interview is released on Corus Radio 640 at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday.
Technical Notes
Vanguard Health Care ETF $VHT moved above $278.07 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Wal-Mart $WMT a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $71.11 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Second quarter results exceeded consensus.
Cisco $CSCO a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $48.77 completing a double bottom pattern.
Medtronic $MDT an S&P 100 stock moved above $83.63 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Dollarama $DOL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$132.23 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Loblaw Companies $L.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$171.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Head and Shoulders Top for Semiconductors? David Keller
Head and Shoulders Top for Semiconductors? – YouTube
CRITICAL Week Ahead for S&P 500: Julius Decampenaer
CRITICAL Week Ahead for S&P 500 – YouTube
Next jobs report will be a needle mover, says Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders on Fed rate cuts
The S&P 500 Bottom Is In (and Here’s Why) Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyl20ZzwS-o
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.80 to 66.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 4.40 to 73.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.19 to 68.58. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 2.21 to 76.55. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 16th, 2024 at 12:08 pm
The $SPX cleared the 5500 price resistance level clearing price resistane and the downtrendline. Very impressive strength and it not yet overbought. Price has run up a lot but shows no weakness yet. As long as price can hold above 5500 then all is well………..
https://schrts.co/ySpBDqZA
August 16th, 2024 at 4:34 pm
Thanks for putting up that chart RON/BC. I just have some phobia about gaps and that expression that “All gaps must be filled.” While it doesn’t have to happen immediately the possibility of this happening say in September does come to mind so the next correction or dip should take us down to at least 5460. That really is small potatoes though. Maybe we run up a bit and eventually we get a test of the 50 day MA. The next Fed rate decision is Sept 18 and we will either get a 25 or 50bp cut and either way it will be positive for the market. The market is hanging on every piece of economic data that comes out it won’t shrug off weak growth data but will respond positively if growth appears intact and inflation under control. There is no overwhelming reason to technically or fundamentally to sell.
August 18th, 2024 at 8:25 pm
I am not so sure the next leg down will be so light, likely much larger as a number of things are not adding up. Gold is outperforming the QQQ’s, VIX came down way too fast and is basically back to complacency levels, bonds, REIT’s, tech, utilities are the best performing areas (which are very defensive) and the economic news will continue to be more bearish for the balance of 2024 (there will still be some bullish points but they will diminish as we get later into winter). Best guess is we will either confirm a top this week at a lower high or in the next 2 weeks a retest of the market top before over the cliff we jump. Saw an interesting discussion on Friday on BNN with Larry McDonald, his points about the US treasury bills should be noted.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/trading-day/2024/08/16/economy-not-going-back-to-normal-larry-mcdonald/