Pre-opening Comments for Friday November 8th
U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures down 2 points at 8:35 AM EST.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US71.90 cents following release of Canada’s October Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a 27,200 increase versus a 46,700 gain in September. Actual was a 14,500 increase. Consensus was an increase in the Unemployment to 6.6% from 6.5% in September. Actual was unchanged at 6.5%.
AirBNB advanced $10.14 to $157.41 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0015-3.png "clip_image001[5]")
Pinterest dropped $4.19 to $29.75 after lowering guidance.
![clip_image002[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0025-3.png "clip_image002[5]")
DraftKings dropped $2.74 to $36.24 after lowering guidance.
![clip_image003[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0035-3.png "clip_image003[5]")
Expedia advanced $8.97 to $183.10 after raising its full year outlook.
![clip_image004[5]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0045-3.png "clip_image004[5]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 8th
The fundamentals surrounding Agriculture are failing to present a backdrop that is enticing to the seasonal trade in the industry through the end of the year. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/11/07/stock-market-outlook-for-november-8-2024/
Responses to FOMC Announcement
At 2:00 PM EST yesterday, the FOMC lowered the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25% to 4.50%-4.75% Response to the news was as follow:
S&P 500 recorded a modest gain after 2:00 PM
The U.S. Dollar ETN recorded a slight drop
20+ Treasury Bond ETF price was virtually unchanged
Bank SPDRs $KBE and $KRE moved lower
Gold prices moved modestly higher. Ditto for gold equity ETFs (e.g. GDX)
Technical Notes
Canada iShares $EWC moved above US$42.17 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Global Base Metals iShares $XBM.TO moved above Cdn$22.95 setting a new intermediate uptrend.
Match Group $MTCH a NASDAQ 100 stock plunged below $33.37 completing a double top pattern. The company reported lower than consensus third quarter earnings.
American Electric Power $AEP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $95.95 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern
Shopify $SHOP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$115.93 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
It’s GAME ON for These Stocks: Joe Rabil
It’s GAME ON for These Stocks – YouTube
What to expect in the first 100 days of Trump’s 2nd term: CBC News
What to expect in the first 100 days of Trump’s 2nd term – YouTube
Trump’s Victory Sent Stocks SOARING: Tom Bowley
Trump’s Victory Sent Stocks SOARING – YouTube
Navigating the Post-Election Rally: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth
Navigating the Post-Election Rally – YouTube
S&P 500 in a ‘mania’ as stock-market rally overshoots, says Wall Street bear
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 2.00 to 64.50. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 74.40. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added another 4.81 to 68.33. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 1.69 to 76.02. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 8th, 2024 at 10:04 am
Re: Larry from yesterday.
I think that was the Trump trade bounce for financials and industrials (rails), DJT, and TSLA. S&P and Nasdaq has gone up too fast and needs a cooling period, and tech will most likely sell off if this happens.
November 8th, 2024 at 10:08 am
Any thoughts on the BCE purchase from the other day? Could this be a major restructuring coming in the new year in which they slash the dividend just like AT&T a while back? I noticed that the analysts are surprisingly not so negative on this. eg. Morningstar said they’ll keep $60 PT on it after the Ziply deal and then went to $56 after the earnings yesterday.
November 8th, 2024 at 11:02 am
Any thoughts on gold out there now that the Cheeto is coming back ? Pretty ugly chart this month.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:42 pm
Larry
Thoughts on financials – continue to outperform in CAD/US for the next year vs tech. Financials US trading at 18 PE vs historical high of 16 PE, CAD 14 PE vs historical high of 13 PE. So the financials are already trading beyond their normal high, but given some of the comments I hear from advisors and BNN, they consider financials cheap until they trade at the market PE (so there is 2-3 multiple expansion possible). Meanwhile tech will likely perform at the market performance subject to certain carve out areas. Short term everything looks overbought, but given the seasonals along with lowering rates and change in government its hard to say financials will not be the largest beneficiary. Technicals in the financials continue to point to up and to the right. Full disclosure, I ended up going long on the financials at the beginning of Sept and do not have any exposure to tech at this time.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Neil
I think BCE’s change in strategy is an admission growth in CAD is limited so they are looking to pivot to find some growth to support the dividend in the future. The fact they confirmed no increase in dividend in 2025 kind of points to maintaining it. Meantime, they are cashflow neutral so unless the Ziply turns out to be less than advertised, they likely try and grow the cashflow. However, if nothing changes and the cashflow shrinks further towards end of 2025, then a cut could be in the cards.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:52 pm
Zack
Sit on the gold if you have it, it’s going to $3000 in the intermediate term. Short term it was overbought and needed a pullback, but this is likely to be done in the next month as it reloads in December to restart the next seasonal strength window.
November 8th, 2024 at 6:37 pm
Is anyone following XBI? It made a new 52 week high yesterday and again today. There is a pattern on the ADX that bodes well. Here is a daily chart:
https://schrts.co/xBfUDBFf
Here is a weekly chart:
https://schrts.co/eMyzmCPx
Of course, it is over bought short term, but keep a watch on it for a possible new up trend to the next resistance level.
November 9th, 2024 at 2:18 am
Hi Paula,
XBI has a nice looking chart it looks like its breaking the 104 level.
That would be your breakthrough ceiling if it can hold that level you’re good.
November 9th, 2024 at 8:39 am
Tony,
Thanks for your comment on XBI. When I look back at my records, I see that I have been following this since mid-2016. It is quite volatile, not for the faint of heart. On the hourly chart, it could easily pullback to test the 102 level. If that area holds, and continues up, the next stop could be ~ 110.
November 9th, 2024 at 9:09 am
Paula re:#7
Nice looking chart. XBI has just broken above an Ascending Triangle consolidation pattern. This chart pattern can be bullish but is not without its perils. What I like is that the +DI line (on the ADX) has moved above the 25-level, the MACD is above zero and the MACD(50,200,10) is just making a positive cross of the signal line. What I don’t like is that the RSI(8) and the Full STO indicators are in overbought territory. Like “tony” said, the breakout needs to hold. But overall, looks good to me.
https://schrts.co/ducuxVXk
November 9th, 2024 at 4:35 pm
FishFat,
Thanks. I was hoping that you would comment. I believe you have looked at my charts of XBI in the past. I agree with all your points. I see that you are using the new version of StochCharts charting. If I save your chart in my default list, would it alter my view, which I do not want to do?
November 9th, 2024 at 4:45 pm
Paula,
No, it is not the new version of StockCharts – just an old, old version. I guess I don’t like change (LOL).
November 9th, 2024 at 5:04 pm
Royal Bank of Canada (RY.to) has been firing on all cylinders since mid-Jun this year (up ~19%). But, the stock price may be starting to sputter. It is currently in a narrow trading range with negative divergence on multiple indicators and trade volume in decline. A similar setup also happened in September, but price managed to break above the trading range (Oct-11) to set new highs. I am not so confident of a break-out to the upside this time. A break to the downside, on the other hand, could trigger a pullback – and maybe a good buying opportunity before the Santa Clause rally in December. Who knows? Not a recommendation, just an observation.
https://schrts.co/GvmMGJPW
November 9th, 2024 at 7:09 pm
Fishfat, re: #12, your charts are really clear but look so different to me, I thought they must be a new version. It seems that StockCharts is always adding new things, which I do not like.LOL
Re: RY.TO. I see all the divergences and can’t help but take note. But I have less confidence that they foretell anything terrible. There was low volume b/t mid-August and mid-September when price had a strong uptrend. It could just be entering another consolidation/trading range, which seems to happen periodically. This is one stock that I have managed to resist the urge to trade and have held it for the last year. I can imagine that investors are happy to continue to hold it so there may not be that much of a pullback. Unless, of course, something unexpected happens.
November 10th, 2024 at 8:17 am
Paula,
I understand your perspective. RY.to is a solid company with positive momentum. Rather than foretelling anything terrible, the negative divergence suggests to me that the enthusiasm for RY.to may be waning. It would not surprise me to see the stock pullback to some degree or at best move sideways.
November 10th, 2024 at 10:23 am
WCN also looking good and starting another step higher; good luck to everyone in this best 2 months of the year.
November 10th, 2024 at 4:33 pm
FishFat, I hope you get a good opportunity to buy RY.TO. None of us should be surprised when there is a good correction after the current general euphoria dies down.
Paul, yes, WCN chart looks good. I first heard about WCN maybe 8 or more years ago. I was skeptical and did not buy it but if you did and held it long term, you have done well.
Good luck to everyone!
November 11th, 2024 at 10:29 am
So nice to see a bit of activity here! Thanks to all who contribute.
As I approach my 90th birthday next month, I am not actively trading, holding whats left only in TFSA and most in BCE and TD, hoping the future holds a lot less red ink!