The Bottom Line
U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday, capping off the worst week for the S&P 500 since early September, as creeping doubts about a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve helped interrupt a postelection rally.
Earnings focuses this week are on Wal-Mart reporting on Tuesday and Nvidia reporting on Wednesday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Frequency of third quarter corporate reports continued to wind down. Ninety three percent (465 companies) have reported to date. Results prompted analysts to lower slightly their third quarter earnings estimate. Consensus calls for a 5.3% year-over-year earnings increase (down from 5.4% last week) and a 5.5% year-over-year revenue increase.
Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.1% earnings increase (down from 12.2% last week) and a 4.8% revenue increase.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.3% earnings increase (down from 9.4% last week) and a 5.0% revenue increase (down from 5.1% last week)
Consensus for earnings gains in the first half of 2025 remains elevated, but at a slightly lower rate. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1 % on a year-over-year basis (down from 12.7% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.2% (down from 5.3% last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.0% (up from 11.9% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%.
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025.For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% (up from 14.8% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%.
Economic News This Week
U.S. October Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.340 million units from 1.354 million units in September
Canadian October Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday
November Philly Fed is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
U.S. October Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 3.88 million units from 3.84 million units in September
U.S. October Leading Economic Indicators are released at10:00 AM EST on Thursday
Canadian September Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in August.
November Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 73.0 from 70.5 in October.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 15th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production SPDRs $XOP moved above $142.42 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bank of America $BAC an S&P 100 stock moved above $46.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending intermediate downtrends on Friday included Eli Lilly, McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Thermo Fisher, Merck, Regeneron, Applied Materials, KLA Ltd and Lam Research
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 16th
November 16 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Case for 30% Market Sell-Off, Fed’s December Rate Cut in Question: Schwab Network
Case for 30% Market Sell-Off, Fed’s December Rate Cut in Question – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 11/15/24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzIkJgCulic
Macro Trends and Market Risks: Marko Kolanovic’s Post-Election Outlook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51LI8Je1Pv4
This Industry Just Broke Out And Is Poised To Lead U.S. Equities Higher: Tom Bowley
Why the Fed Doesn’t Have Your Back: Bob Hoye
Why the Fed Doesn’t Have Your Back – HoweStreet
Even With Trump, Stock Markets Will Make Corrections: Mark Leibovit
Even With Trump, Stock Markets Will Make Corrections – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for November 16, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for November 16, 2024 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.00 on Friday and plunged 10.40 last week to 55.00. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.40 on Friday and 6.00 last week to 68.60. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.45 on Friday and plunged 13.80 last week to 49.55. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday
The long term Barometer dropped 1.36 on Friday and 7.38 last week to 69.09. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications