Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday November 19th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 30 points at 8:35 AM EST. Futures responded to news that the U.S. approved the use of U.S. supplied weapons by Ukraine against Russia.
S&P 500 futures dropped 8 points following release of the U.S October Housing Starts report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a slip to 1.340 million units from 1.354 million units in September. Actual was a drop to 1.311 million units.
Listed options on Bitcoin iShares are scheduled to start trading today.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Wal-Mart gained $2.34 to $86.42 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results.
Symbotic added $7.37 to $37.93 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues and earnings. The company also raised first quarter guidance.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0034.png "clip_image003[4]")
Lowe’s added $2.37 to $271.77 after releasing higher than consensus third quarter results
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 19th
While the setup for stocks is positive for the year-end seasonal strength, investors should be prepared for the fading of enthusiasm once the new president takes office. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/11/18/stock-market-outlook-for-november-19-2024/
Technical Notes
First Trust Natural Gas ETF $FCG moved above $25.70 setting an intermediate uptrend. Strength was prompted by a seasonally early snow storm in western Canada and U.S.A.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 18th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Don’t Miss These Breakouts Poised To Trade Higher! Mary Ellen McGonagle
Don’t Miss These Breakouts Poised To Trade Higher! – YouTube
The Trump trade is still intact, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
The Trump trade is still intact, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – YouTube
BMO’s Brian Belski explains his 2025 year-end target of $6,700
BMO’s Brian Belski explains his 2025 year-end target of $6,700 – YouTube
Equity Strategists Full of Bull For 2025: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
Equity Strategists Full of Bull For 2025 – YouTube
Goldman Sachs’ Sung Cho is bullish on software in 2025
Goldman Sachs’ Sung Cho is bullish on software in 2025 – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.20 to 57.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 1.40 to 70.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 7.73 to 57.27. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 3.64 to 72.73. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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November 19th, 2024 at 8:47 am
Neil/ON – Re:Cdn Banks – I wouldn’t touch TD period. It will take them years to regain their reputation in the US and you have to ask yourself how their money laundering scandal is going to affect future business in the US. They have had declining EPS since peaking in late 2022. Deregulation, more M&A activity, and better GDP growth in the US will all feed into better earnings for US banks than Cdn in 2025. Banks with revenues from trading like GS and MS will do well. Housing activity is much better in the US than in Canada. Canada is just a comparative economic hole. Having said that the performance of a domestic oriented bank like CM has been impressive. Their last three quarters have been good and they will probably report good earnings Dec 5th but I wonder what their guidance will be for 2025. Keep in mind that if Trump implements tariffs it will be a negative for the Canadian economy and thus for Canadian bank activity.
November 20th, 2024 at 12:14 am
Larry / Neil
I suspect that CAD banks will outperform their US counterparts (with exception possibly of TD) in 2025 as they are trading on a lower multiples and rates here are going much lower than the US allowing for the potential of a greater NIM and piggy backing on any US growth. Plus CAD is likely to outperform the US market as part of a catchup trade (although CAD will not get to the same multiple as the US). TD may be a good trade for 2025 as a rotation into the weakest link for CAD banks has generally outperformed the following year. TD for reference gets 30-35% of its revenue from the US so unlike Wells still has lots of opportunity to grow in any other jurisdiction it operates and the AML does not limit the investment or capital markets business in the US (these are not affected by the cap). Case in point BNS was the ugly ducking in 2023, but is now flying. Also, BMO hit the skids in the summer and now is also starting to show strength in recovery despite likely 1-2 more quarters of poor loan loss provisions. I am not wildly bullish on TD, but a run to 92-110 is within reach. BNS 85-105, CM 100-120 offer a similar setup, but a higher probability of success.