The Bottom Line
Quiet week for North American equity markets this week! Historically, U. S. equity indices have moved higher on the day before and the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving day holiday. That’s when market makers are on holidays and individual investors have greater influence on equity prices. Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. is held this year on Thursday November 28th
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Frequency of third quarter corporate reports continued to wind down. Ninety five percent (475 companies) have reported to date. Thanks to higher than consensus results last week from Nvidia, analysts were prompted to raise slightly their S&P 500 third quarter earnings estimate. Consensus now calls for a 5.8% year-over-year earnings increase (up from 5.3% last week) and a 5.6% year-over-year revenue increase (up from 5.5% last week)
Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.0% earnings increase (down from 12.1% last week) and a 4.7% revenue increase (down from 4.8% last week).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (up from 9.3% last week) and a 5.0% revenue increase.
Consensus for earnings gains in the first half of 2025 remains elevated and increased last week. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.7 % on a year-over-year basis (up from 12.1% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.2%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1% (up from 12.0% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (up from 5.5% last week)
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%.
Economic News This Week
October U.S. New Home Sales are released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday
FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on Tuesday
October U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday
Third quarter U.S. annualized third quarter GDP is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday
October Core PCE Price Index is released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday
October U.S. Personal Spending is released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday October U.S. Personal Income also is released at 10:00 AM EST
September Canadian GDP is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday
November Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is released at 9:45 AM EST on Friday.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Trader’s Corner
![clip_image002[6]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/clip_image0026.png "clip_image002[6]")
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 22nd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 22nd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 22nd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Chart of the Day: Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Average closed on Friday at an all-time closing high. Technical score increased on Friday from 4 to 6 when strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 6th
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
U.S bank stocks led the advance by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. JP Morgan $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock led the advance on Friday on a move above $248.00 to an all-time high.
Copart $CPRT a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $58.58 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Atlassian $TEAM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $258.69 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Nvidia Results Will Spur a Santa Claus Rally, Ives Says
Nvidia Results Will Spur a Santa Claus Rally, Ives Says – YouTube
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 23rd 2024
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – November 23, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INlt4zzmT4w
Will 2024 End With a Bang Like 2021? Hindenburg Omen Alert! David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek3wj00jknI
These Old School Stocks Have Joined The AI Rally! Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twZrE476KzM
Are the Stock Markets Getting Too Hot? Bob Hoye
Are the Stock Markets Getting Too Hot? – HoweStreet
Trump Victory Powering Optimism in Most Sectors: Mark Leibovit
Trump Victory Powering Optimism in Most Sectors – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for November 23, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for November 23, 2024 – HoweStreet
Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia: Josef Schachter
Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.20 on Friday and gained 8.20 last week to 63.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 1.12 on Friday and gained 3.60 last week to 72.20. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 14.38 last week to 63.93. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 6.25 last week to 75.34. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
Equity Clock Publications