Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 25^th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 30 points at 8:30 AM EST.

Canadian energy stocks and related Exchange Traded Funds are expected to open higher after President Elect Trump said that he is ready to revive construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Robinhood Markets advanced $1.41 to $38.15 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to buy.

Bath and Body Works advanced $3.18 to $33.89 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues.

Target gained $1.49 to $126.50 after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to a Top Pick.

EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for November 25^th

Stocks tend to gain during the US Thanksgiving week and the liquidity backdrop in the market is supportive of this positivity now and through year-end. See:

https://equityclock.com/2024/11/23/stock-market-outlook-for-november-25-2024/

Technical Scoop for November 25^th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Quiet week for North American equity markets this week! Historically, U. S. equity indices have moved higher on the day before and the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving day holiday. That’s when market makers are on holidays and individual investors have greater influence on equity prices. Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. is held this year on Thursday November 28^th

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Frequency of third quarter corporate reports continued to wind down. Ninety five percent (475 companies) have reported to date. Thanks to higher than consensus results last week from Nvidia, analysts were prompted to raise slightly their S&P 500 third quarter earnings estimate. Consensus now calls for a 5.8% year-over-year earnings increase (up from 5.3% last week) and a 5.6% year-over-year revenue increase (up from 5.5% last week)

Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.0% earnings increase (down from 12.1% last week) and a 4.7% revenue increase (down from 4.8% last week).

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (up from 9.3% last week) and a 5.0% revenue increase.

Consensus for earnings gains in the first half of 2025 remains elevated and increased last week. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.7 % on a year-over-year basis (up from 12.1% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.2%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1% (up from 12.0% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (up from 5.5% last week)

Earnings gains are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%.

Economic News This Week

October U.S. New Home Sales are released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday

FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on Tuesday

October U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday

Third quarter U.S. annualized third quarter GDP is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday

October Core PCE Price Index is released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday

October U.S. Personal Spending is released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday October U.S. Personal Income also is released at 10:00 AM EST

September Canadian GDP is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday

November Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is released at 9:45 AM EST on Friday.

Selected Earnings Reports This Week

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 22^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 22^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 22^nd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Chart of the Day: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Average closed on Friday at an all-time closing high. Technical score increased on Friday from 4 to 6 when strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 6^th

Changes Last Week

Technical Notes for Friday

U.S bank stocks led the advance by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. JP Morgan $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock led the advance on Friday on a move above $248.00 to an all-time high.

Copart $CPRT a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $58.58 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Atlassian $TEAM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $258.69 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Nvidia Results Will Spur a Santa Claus Rally, Ives Says

Nvidia Results Will Spur a Santa Claus Rally, Ives Says – YouTube

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for November 23^rd 2024

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – November 23, 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INlt4zzmT4w

Will 2024 End With a Bang Like 2021? Hindenburg Omen Alert! David Keller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek3wj00jknI

These Old School Stocks Have Joined The AI Rally! Mary Ellen McGonagle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twZrE476KzM

Are the Stock Markets Getting Too Hot? Bob Hoye

Are the Stock Markets Getting Too Hot? – HoweStreet

Trump Victory Powering Optimism in Most Sectors: Mark Leibovit

Trump Victory Powering Optimism in Most Sectors – HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for November 23, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for November 23, 2024 – HoweStreet

Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia: Josef Schachter

Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia – HoweStreet

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 2.20 on Friday and gained 8.20 last week to 63.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.

The long term Barometer added 1.12 on Friday and gained 3.60 last week to 72.20. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 14.38 last week to 63.93. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and gained 6.25 last week to 75.34. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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