Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 9th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points at 8:30 AM EST
Interpublic advanced $4.20 to $33.46 on reports that it will merge with Omnicom.
Apollo gained $11.15 to $189.00 on news that its shares will join the S&P 500 on December 23rd
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0024-3.png "clip_image002[4]")
Workday added $24.08 to $290.50 on news that its shares will join the S&P 500 on December 23rd
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for December 9th
The second largest surge in Canadian unemployment in the past four decades highlights a labour market that is struggling. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/12/07/stock-market-outlook-for-december-9-2024/
Technical Scoop for December 9th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
U.S. economic focuses this week are on November CPI released on Wednesday and November PPI released on Thursday.
Canadian focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least a 0.25 basis point reduction.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, but at a slightly lower rate than offered three weeks ago. (November 25th). Consensus calls for an 11.9% earnings increase (down from previous 12.0%) and a 4.8% revenue increase (up from previous 4.7%).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.6% earnings increase (up from previous 9.4%) and a 5.1% revenue increase (up from previous 5.0%).
Consensus for earnings gains in 2025 remains elevated and moved higher from the November 25th report. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.8 % on a year-over-year basis (up from previous 12.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 5.2%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1% and revenues are expected to increase 5.4% (down from previous 5.7%). Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.2% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.9% and revenues are expected to increase 6.6%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7% (down from previous 5.8%)
Economic News This Week
Third quarter U.S. Non-farm Productivity is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday
November U.S. Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday
Bank of Canada interest rate decision is released at 9:45 AM EST on Wednesday
November U.S. Producer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 6th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 6th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 6th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Healthcare Providers iShares $IHF moved below $51.99 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to murder of UnitedHealth Group’s CEO
UnitedHealth Group $UNH a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below$576.77 completing a double top pattern.
IBM $IBM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $235.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Diamondback Energy $FANG a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $204.07 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Emera $EMA.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$55.90 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Cenovus $CVE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$21.35 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for December 7th 2024
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 12/6/24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPcOv0lbuuM
What’s The Outlook For December AND For 2025? Tom Bowley
Note seasonality comment
What’s The Outlook For December AND For 2025? | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com
Double Top on Industrials (XLI); Erin Swenlin
Double Top on Industrials (XLI) | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Market sentiment could be a threat to the bull market in early 2025, says Renaissance’s Jeff deGraaf. Note comment on seasonality
How Long Can Stock Markets Keep Climbing? Bob Hoye
How Long Can Stock Markets Keep Climbing? – HoweStreet
What Could Bitcoin’s Short Term High Be? Mark Leibovit
What Could Bitcoin’s Short Term High Be? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024 Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 0.80 on Friday and 12.60 last week to 58.40. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.20 on Friday and dropped 4.80 last week to 71.20. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.22 on Friday and 8.22 last week to 56.62. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.65 on Friday 4.56 last week to 70.78. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications