Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday December 18th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 16 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures slipped 2 points following release of November U.S. Housing Starts at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus calls for an increase to 1.350 million units from 1.311 million units in October. Actual was1.289 million units
FOMC’s economic update is released at 2:00 PM EST. Consensus calls for a drop in the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25%. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EST.
MasterCard added $2.99 to $534.00 after raising its dividend and after announcing a $12 billion share buyback program
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0014-5.png "clip_image001[4]")
Worthington Enterprises advanced $5.50 to $43.70 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0024-6.png "clip_image002[4]")
General Mills dropped $1.97 to $63.96 after the company lowered its fiscal 2025 outlook.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/clip_image0034-4.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for December 18th
Evidence of a discerning consumer mentality remains readily apparent this holiday season, but better days could be ahead if post-election year tendencies prove to be correct. See:
https://equityclock.com/2024/12/17/stock-market-outlook-for-december-18-2024/
Technical Notes
Agribusiness ETF $MOO moved below $69.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.
US REIT iShares $IYR moved below $96.06 completing a double top pattern.
Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved below support at $76.78 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Home Builders SPDRs $XHB moved below $111.95 completing a double top pattern.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included American Tower $AMT, Next Energy $NEE, CSX $CSX and Lowe’s $LOW.
CAE $CAE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$33.87 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Barrick Gold $ABX a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$23.16 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 17th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 16th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 17th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Five KEY CHARTS to Watch for Fed Week: David Keller
Five KEY CHARTS to Watch for Fed Week – YouTube
SPX Internals Correcting While Price Stalls, Bulls Eye Big Tech: Schwab Network
SPX Internals Correcting While Price Stalls, Bulls Eye Big Tech – YouTube
Expect broadening of the market rally and rotation next year, says JPMorgan’s Elyse Ausenbaugh
Why this financial expert say now is not a good time to buy stocks: John O’Connell
Why this financial expert say now is not a good time to buy stocks – YouTube
Market ‘catching its breath’ for Santa Claus rally: Ryan Detrick
Market ‘catching its breath’ for Santa Claus rally – YouTube
Silver’s Untapped Potential: $40 Price Tag Just the Beginning in 2025? Randy Smallwood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NLKGaHEFoI
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 6.20 to 39.00. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped another 0.60 to 63.00. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
Editor’s Note: The 20 day momentum indicator $SPXA20R dropped to 22.20%, lowest level since April. However, signs of a low have yet to be determined.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.83 to 34.70. It remains Oversold. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 0.91 to 65.30. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
Editor’s Note: The 20 day momentum indicator $TSXA20R dropped to 20.55%, lowest level since October 2023. However, signs of a low have yet to be determined.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 18th, 2024 at 9:57 am
re Larry:
You were about the loonie going way down. I didn’t think it would get to under 70 cents so soon. Where do you see it going next?
December 18th, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Neil
Depends on what happens with Mr Cheeto. Short term 0.68 looks to be the bottom. However, if things heat up politically and cool economically, we could see 0.63-0.65 as mid term bottom. Alternately peace with the US and the rate cuts pick up growth then we should be back into the 0.72-0.74 range. My bet has been lower since 0.74 was broken.
December 18th, 2024 at 12:33 pm
CAD – Neil as they say currency is notoriously difficult to predict and I am just a humble trader. Cramer was doing some chart analysis on his show last night looking at a possible USD reversal in January and more worrying another Yen carry-trade reversal in first half 2025 which would cause a drop in the market. For me I will start to switch into CAD incrementally as we cross 0.693. That I can do with money market holdings but when you hold US equities you have to hedge. Looking at comparative performance the hedged versions of stocks on the NEO exchange I figure cost you about 1% per six months for that hedge. I might start picking up some Cdn equities on a limited basis.
December 18th, 2024 at 2:14 pm
CAD – Post Fed Decision – More hawkish. With 2025 projected cuts reduced from four to two that put immediate pressure on CAD because we will be cutting faster. I’m getting bolder sticking in USD down to 0.685 at least.
December 18th, 2024 at 3:06 pm
Larry and Bman
Thanks for the fast replies. As I write, the loonie is selling off on the rate cut outlook by Powell as well as other fx pairs vs the USD. As Bman puts it, .68 looks to be the level we’re headed, but I hope the Cheeto is all talk and wants easy wins. I do remember him saying in his 1st term that a he hated a strong USD policy as it hurt exports. Another Yen-carry trade incident would not help, even though the loonie held up quite well during this past summer during that event.
According to Don’s historical charts, $cad goes down half a percent mid January and doesn’t go up until mid March.
December 18th, 2024 at 3:26 pm
I believe the next shoe to drop is a downgrade of our credit rating. This will greatly increase the rates we pay on our national debt. I count on a 65c Cdollar.
December 18th, 2024 at 4:28 pm
What a day. I have been ultra-careful all month and on a day like today it pays off. SPY was an express elevator down through the 50day MA on heavy volume and we closed near the low. This reminds me of one year where instead of a Santa Claus rally we had a market low on Christmas Eve. That was your present – to buy stocks cheap for Christmas. On SPY you have major support in that 563-568 range so I think worst case scenario a further 3.4% downside. I don’t know how much longer this continues but if you see a drop at the start of trading and then a finish higher that is your typical indicator of a bottom. On a day like that I wait until near the end of trading to commit to buying.
December 18th, 2024 at 6:01 pm
VIX back above 21 (27 today) tells me we should get a bottom soon enough (within 1-2 weeks unless there is a black swan event). I like how my CAD financials performed, being down less than the market so to me this is indicating it’s still the place to be. TSX is down 5% peak to trough, S&P is 3.8%. Expect we are correcting greater than 5% so Larry your number looks about right. Seems like coal nuggets until Christmas Eve.