The Bottom Line
Here comes Santa Claus! Peak period for the “Santa Claus rally” for U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from December 24th to December 31st
Passage by Congress and the President on Saturday of a bill to extend the debt ceiling until March 15th removes a short term stock market uncertainty and sets the stage for the proverbial “Santa Claus rally”.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Year-over-year earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Consensus calls for an 11.9% earnings increase (up from 11.8% last week) and a 4.6% revenue increase (down from 4.7% last week).
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (down from 9.5% last week) and a 5.1% revenue increase.
Consensus for earnings and revenue gains in 2025 was unchanged last week. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.8 % on a year-over-year basis and revenues are expected to increase 5.2%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1% and revenues are expected to increase 5.4%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.2% and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.9% and revenues are expected to increase 6.6%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% and revenues are expected to increase 5.8%.
Economic News This Week
Canada’s October GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in September.
Bank of Canada offers deliberations at 1:30 PM EST on Monday.
November Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to drop 0.4% versus a 0.2% gain in October.
November U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase to 650,000 from 610,000 in October.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Nil
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 20th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for December 21st
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Stock Markets, Cryptos, Due for Big Correction: Mark Leibovit
Stock Markets, Cryptos, Due for Big Correction – HoweStreet
JPMorgan’s Gabriela Santos on 2025 outlook: Out of the cyclical storm, into the policy fog
JPMorgan’s Gabriela Santos on 2025 outlook: Out of the cyclical storm, into the policy fog – YouTube
Peter Boockvar on The Fed, Volatility, Valuations and 2025 Market Shifts
Peter Boockvar on The Fed, Volatility, Valuations and 2025 Market Shifts – YouTube
PCE data was better than expected and we’re on path to get inflation to 2%: Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee
Could China’s Real Estate Woes Spread Here? Bob Hoye
Could China’s Real Estate Woes Spread Here? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for December 21, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for December 21, 2024 – HoweStreet
Technical Notes for Friday
Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved above $15.52 completing a double bottom pattern.
United Kingdom iShares $EWU moved below $33.61 and $33.41 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
S&P 100 stocks and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Kraft Heinz, CSX, Old Dominion Freight Line, Autodesk, Intuit, Qualcomm, Synopsys and ON Semiconductor
Oil Services ETF $OIH moved below $262.18 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS.TO moved below $75.93 completing a double top pattern
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 21.00 last week, but bounced 5.60 on Friday to 26.60. It changed last week from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 10.20 last week, but recovered 2.20 on Friday to 56.40. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
Short term (20 day) Barometer bounced on Friday to 11.80 from a deeply oversold 7.80.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 15.99 last week, but bounced 4.11 on Friday to 26.48. It changed last week from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 7.76 last week, but recovered 2.74 on Friday to 59.82.It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
Short term (20 day) Barometer bounced on Friday to 11.87 from deeply oversold 8.68
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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Equity Clock Publications