Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 6^th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 48 points at 8:30 AM EST.

The Canadian Dollar was up 0.67 to US69.89 cents on speculation that Prime Minister Trudeau plans to resign as Prime Minister later this week.

Tesla added $7.36 to $317.89 after Canaccord raised its target price from $298 to $404.

Microsoft gained $3.51 to $426.86 after announcing plans to build out AI-enabled data centers.

Boeing added $3.24 to $173.14 after Barclays raised its target price from $190 to $210.

EquityClock’s stock market outlook for January 6^th

Will the colder than average temperatures forecast for January put the freeze on economic activity? See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/01/03/stock-market-outlook-for-january-6-2025/

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

See January 6^th link at https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Technical signs of a short term bottom were recorded by U.S. and Canadian exchange indices last week. TSX Composite Index has started to outperform the S&P 500 Index, typical for this time of year.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus by analyst calls for an 11.9% year-over-year earnings increase and a 4.6% revenue increase, unchanged from last week. Earnings estimates were unchanged despite 71 companies lowering earnings guidance and 35 companies raising earnings guidance.

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.5% earnings increase and a 5.0% revenue increase.

Lowering company earnings guidance prompted analysts to reduce 2025 consensus earnings and revenue estimates slightly. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for an 11.9 % increase on a year-over-year basis (versus a 12.8% increase published two weeks ago). Revenues are expected to increase 5.1% (versus a previous 5.2% increase). Consensus for second quarter earnings calls for an 11.6% increase (versus a previous 12.1% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 5.0% (versus a previous 5.4% increase). Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 15.2% and revenues are expected to increase 5.6% (versus a previous 5.7% increase). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.6% (versus a previous 16.9% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 6.7% (versus a previous 6.6% increase). For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.8% (versus a previous 15.0% increase) and revenues are expected to increase 5.8%.

Economic News This Week

November Factory Orders are released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday

U.S. November Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase to $77.50 billion from $73.80 billion in October.

December ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase to 53.1 from 52.1 in November.

Canadian November Trade Balance is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday

U.S. November Wholesale Inventories released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to decline 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in October.

U.S. December Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to drop to 150,000 from 227,000 in November. December Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from November at 4.2%. December Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in November. On a year-over-year basis, December Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain unchanged at a 4.0% increase.

Canadian December Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday

January Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday

Selected Earnings News This Week

Thursday: Constellation Brands, Walgreens Boots, KB Homes

Friday: Delta Airlines

January 9^th U.S. Holiday

U.S. exchanges are closed on Thursday as a memorial to former president Jimmy Carter.

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 3^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 3^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 3^rd 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Chart of the Day: S&P Energy Index ($SPEN)

Technical score increased from 0 to 4 when units moved above their 20 day moving average and strength relative to the S&P 500 turned positive. Seasonal influences are Positive until April 12^th Also trades as an Energy SPDR (XLE) with an almost identical chart.

Technical Notes for Friday

Royal Caribbean Cruises $RCL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $227.37 and $224.78 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

Colgate Palmolive $CL an S&P 100 stock moved below $90.04 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Pepsico $PEP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $149.85 to a 30 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.

Enbridge $ENB.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$61.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Mike’s MoneyTalks for January 4^th 2025

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

While Market Soft, Some Individual Stocks Still Hot; Mark Leibovit

While Market Soft, Some Individual Stocks Still Hot – HoweStreet

Be mindful of moves in longer term yields, says Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders

Be mindful of moves in longer term yields, says Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders – YouTube

These 3 Charts Are Among The Most Critical To Start 2025: Tom Bowley

These 3 Charts Are Among The Most Critical To Start 2025 | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com

This Winter Storm Is Taking A Surprising Turn…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of21dnHUPZc

Is Natural Gas Ready to DOUBLE in Price? Keith Richards at Valuetrendcanada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VLve4WOBM

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – January 4, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXaCqpO0UFo

Worst Year End Stocks Performance Since 1966: Bob Hoye

Worst Year End Stocks Performance Since 1966 – HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for January 4, 2025: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for January 4, 2025 – HoweStreet

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 6.00 on Friday, but dropped 2.20 last week to 24.80. It remains Oversold, but showing early signs of bottoming.

The long term Barometer added 1.00 on Friday, but dropped 1.60 last week to 56.00. It remains Neutral, but showing early signs of bottoming.

P.S. Short term (20 day) Barometer bounced 10.00 on Friday and added 7.20 last week to 20.80. The Barometer bottomed on December 19^th at 7.80.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer advanced 3.59 on Friday and gained 14.35 last week to 46.19.It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. The Barometer bottomed on December 19^th at 22.37 and is trending up.

The long term Barometer added 3.59 on Friday and gained 5.83 last week to 67.71. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is up.

P.S. The short term (20 day) Barometer bottomed on December 19^th at 8.68 and closed on Friday at 47.53

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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