Next Tech Talk report is scheduled to be released on Tuesday January 21st. U.S. equity markets are closed on Monday and trading activity on Canadian exchanges is expected to be lower than average.
Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 17th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 43 points at 8:30 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures added 6 points following release of December U.S. Housing Starts at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was 1.330 million units versus 1.289 million units in November. Actual was 1.500 million units.
SLB added $0.80 to $41.89 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenue and earnings. The company also launched a $2.3 billion share buyback program.
Fastenal dropped $3.78 to $70.99 after reporting less than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
Qorvo advanced $4.55 to $78.14 after an activist investor has built a stake in the stock.
JB Hunt dropped $16.71 to $169.49 after reporting less than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for January 17th
The weakest calendar year performance for Food Services and Drinking Place sales in a non-recessionary period highlights a consumer that has tightened their grip on their finances. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/16/stock-market-outlook-for-january-17-2025/
Technical Notes
Brrrr, it’s cold out there! Natural Gas ETN HNU.TO moved above Cdn$50.28 to a seven month high. Natural Gas ETN UNG moved above US$19.48.
Italy iShares $EWI moved above $37.33 setting an intermediate uptrend.
U.S. Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved above $61.17 extending an intermediate uptrend.
JP Morgan Chase $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $253.00 to an all-time high. Reported higher than consensus fourth quarter results!
Goldman Sachs $GS a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $611.91 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 16th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 16th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 16th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Stocks Ignite as Inflation Fears FADE Away! Tom Bowley
Stocks Ignite as Inflation Fears FADE Away! – YouTube
See oil price risks skew to the upside in the near-term, says Goldman Sachs’ Samantha Dart
See oil price risks skew to the upside in the near-term, says Goldman Sachs’ Samantha Dart – YouTube
Top stock picks from Michele Schneider
Top stock picks from Michele Schneider – YouTube
Market Update – Balancing Caution and Optimism Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
Market Update – Balancing Caution and Optimism Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced another 5.60 to 38.20. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added another 2.40 to 60.40. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
P.S. Short term (20 day) Barometer vaulted another 11.40 to 67.40. It changed from Neutral to Overbought. Low was set on December 19th at 7.80.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.06 to 36.94. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 0.28 to 63.06. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 16th, 2025 at 9:53 pm
Is anyone else seeing the S&P 500 falling wedge pattern?
January 17th, 2025 at 12:23 pm
Bman/Van – I don’t know if I would describe the decline since early Dec as a falling wedge but what I see today is a break of the downtrend line. I think we need to clear 6021 to confirm that the short-term downturn is over. My guess is odds are that we continue higher. Inflation data and reported earnings have been good so you need a new reason to sell. The only uncertainty is Trump’s tariff threats causing economic dislocation.
January 19th, 2025 at 4:57 pm
Bman/Van
Is this what you mean by a falling wedge? I would describe it more as a downtrend channel. In a falling wedge, the lines are not parallel.
Larry/ON. By this chart the market rallied right up to the declining downtrend line. I can easily see it continuing up to test the previous all time high @ 6099.97 and perhaps even exceeding it, but then what?
This is an old chart of Ron/BC’s. I did not update since May/June of last year:
https://schrts.co/HIIDqNNw
January 19th, 2025 at 5:01 pm
RE TD.TO
Here is a weekly chart showing Elder Bars, which turned green 3 weeks ago. The market knew something good was going to happen:
https://schrts.co/mkzirRTs
January 19th, 2025 at 8:47 pm
Hi Paula
I was looking at the attached link
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fdailypriceaction.com%2Fblog%2Ftrading-rising-falling-wedge-patterns%2F&psig=AOvVaw3YOf4-yKW2czJc4fXQkIIQ&ust=1737188463331000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBEQjRxqFwoTCPiiyLyVg4sDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
However, with Friday’s action we would have broken the top of the pattern so I am now rethinking if there was a pattern to start given Friday’s action was a doji and indecisive.
Nice to see the move up TD, short term we are heading to $87 unless the futures (currently down) hold true and continue this way for a couple more trading sessions. In that case you might see a reverse of trend and give back a bunch of gains. Lots of uncertainty and muddy are the signals (kinda sounds like yoda).
January 20th, 2025 at 7:59 pm
Bman/Van
Thanks for your comments in #5.
Perhaps it was a wedge before Friday’s action. But now it looks like a downtrend channel to me. But of course, this could all change tomorrow (Tuesday) when the US markets open. Too many variables, can’t predict what will happen.
After such a big move up, TD is consolidating, which is normal. But if it can get above the September 16, 2024 high of 85.79, the downtrend is broken.