Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 31st
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 24 points at 8:35 AM EST.
S&P 500 futures slipped 4 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for the December Core PCE Price Index was a 0.2% increase versus a 0.1% gain in November. Actual was a 0.2% gain. December U.S. Personal Income was expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in November. Actual was a 0.4% gain. December U.S. Personal Spending was expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.4% gain in November. Actual was a 0.6% increase.
The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.07 to 69.07 following release of Canada’s November GDP at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a 0.1% ease versus a 0.3% increase in October. Actual was a 0.2% drop.
Celestica advanced $20.79 to US$165.78 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0014-10.png "clip_image001[4]")
Altassian gained $51.05 to $318.00 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0024-13.png "clip_image002[4]")
Apple added $7.66 to $244.75 after offering positive guidance.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/clip_image0034-10.png "clip_image003[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for January 31st
Signs of complacency in the market continue to emerge. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/01/30/stock-market-outlook-for-january-31-2025/
Technical Notes
Spot Gold futures moved above US$2,801.80 per ounce to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Gold bullion SPDRs $GLD moved above $257.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Gold Miners ETF $GDX moved above intermediate resistance at $38.72. Notable among gold stock gainers was Franco-Nevada $FDX.TO on a move above Cdn$190.77 and US$137.20
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking above intermediate resistance extending an uptrend included IBM on a move above $239.35 to an all-time high, Check Point on a move above $210.70 to an all-time high, Roper Technologies on a move above $579.15 to an all-time high, Lululemon $LULU on a move above $420.21, Charles Schwab on a move above $83.35
S&P 100 stocks moving below support setting intermediate downtrends included Comcast, FedEx and UPS
Thomson Reuters $TRI.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$243.42 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
TSX Composite Index moved above 25,843.20 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Shopify $SHOP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$171.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 30th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 30th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 30th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Watch for These Bear Market WARNING Signs! Tom Bowley
Watch for These Bear Market WARNING Signs! – YouTube
Market Outlook After Big Tech "Mixed Bag," Unchanged Fed Rate: Schwab Network
Market Outlook After Big Tech "Mixed Bag," Unchanged Fed Rate – YouTube
Biggest Risks to the Market: Mike Wilson on First Half Volatility: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Mike Wilson
Biggest Risks to the Market: Mike Wilson on First Half Volatility – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Thursday 1/30/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk0B6JsXTbc
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.40 to 56.80. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 2.60 to 64.00. It remains Overbought.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 6.31 to 47.30. It remains Neutral
The long term Barometer added 2.70 to 68.47. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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January 31st, 2025 at 9:47 am
Larry and Bman,
Wow, Trump is a like a mad man with this continued tariff talk. I kept thinking that the loonie would eventually go higher, but now it looks like Trump wants the USDxy to go even higher.
Any thoughts on where the charts are saying $cad is heading?
January 31st, 2025 at 12:36 pm
Neil ON – It’s “Currency Chaos” – As I type CAD has now gone UP to 69.5. There is no predicting what it will do in the next few days but despite repeated attempts to drive it below 0.69 it keeps popping back up so I am thinking that perhaps odds are that all negativity is already priced in. This tariff crisis won’t be endless and when it is resolved the direction of CAD will be higher IMO. I don’t think Trump wants a higher USD.
In this bizarre world we live in I just saw the headline that Trump froze $50 million for condoms in Gaza.
January 31st, 2025 at 3:05 pm
Larry, you’re right about the currency chaos. As I type, CAD is now 68.9 after the WH press secretary re-confirmed tariffs for tomorrow and not March 1st.
This is already looking like Trump 1.0 when with a comment, the market goes hay wire.
January 31st, 2025 at 6:28 pm
Larry / Neil
I suspect we will be looking at 0.67 over the next couple weeks if the tariff and retaliation discussion gets hotter. Below 0.695 the loonie has had limited bouts usually bouncing within a quarter or two (so once the dust settles and thing calm down by the summer), loonie will start to strengthen back towards 0.70. However, with the differential in interest rates between the countries 0.695-0.72 range for the balance of 2025 unless the rate differential shrinks. On the other hand we could go as low as 0.63 if both countries go nuclear in the tariff war and Canada goes into a recession. Short term I am holding onto my USD and CAD as there looks to be forming an entry point once the compliancy in the market retreats.
January 31st, 2025 at 8:49 pm
i heard on the radio today that oil and some other goods are going to up in price for us here in canada because of us tariffs. if we stop buying u.s. imported suff and buy local stuff, will that not put u.s. in a bad spot?
also i think we should not put any tariffs on our stuff that goes to the u.s. and they will keep buyin our goods.
is my thinking correct?
January 31st, 2025 at 10:10 pm
Hi David
Unfortunately, even if we totally boycott what we could do without (frozen orange juice, us booze, etc…) and not tariff the balance it would do little to hurt the US. 77% of CAN exports go to the US, while 12% US exports go to CAN. On the west coast 100% of all jet fuel and 70-80% of our gas comes from Washington State (we do not have the refining capacity) so we need to be careful of the unintended consequences of putting tariffs on US goods. It’s a bad situation, so we need to be patient and strategic on response and upcoming negotiations. Some item’s like lumber, nuclear, potash and grains we could hurt the US, but our alternate destinations to sell these items would be for less than selling to the US due to transportation and market.
February 1st, 2025 at 2:41 am
Bman/Van
Thank you for your response. I guess we’re screwed. We should of not be so complacent and be so dependent on the u.s.. I guess this is a good wakeup call for Canada. We should do more business with other nations.
February 1st, 2025 at 12:05 pm
Let me rephrase that. It would really hurt the u.s. if taxed our products to the u.s.. We sure export a lot to them.
February 1st, 2025 at 10:27 pm
It will be an interesting opening to the markets Monday morning. announced 25% on CDN goods and 10% on CDN Oil. I feel we should also implement export taxes on our oil and gas. American consumers can feel it at the pump. Canadians who bring American goods home from holidays should pay a tax.