Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday February 4th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:30 AM EST
Palantir advanced $18.67 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
Clorox dropped $2.80 to $156.98 after lowering its revenue outlook.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0024-1.png "clip_image002[4]")
Aecom added $2.10 to $105.95 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The company also offered positive guidance.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0034.png "clip_image003[4]")
Merck dropped $8.54 to $91.25 after issuing 2025 guidance below consensus.
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0044.png "clip_image004[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for February 4th
Looking to become more Neutral in portfolio positioning at this seasonally weak time of year. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/02/03/stock-market-outlook-for-february-4-2025/
Technical Notes
Auto ETF $CARZ moved below $57.04 and $56.36 setting an intermediate downtrend. Responded to Trump’s tariff proposal that could disrupt the U.S. auto industry supply chain.
Lithium ETN $LIT moved below support at $30.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Trade Desk, US Bancorp, Illumina, Regeneron, FedEx and NXP Semiconductor
TSX 60 stocks moving below support extending an intermediate downtrend included Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Commerce Bank, National Bank, Manulife Financial, Sun Life Financial, CAE, Teck Resources, Magna International, SNC Lavalin, Loblaw Companies, Rogers Communications, Dollarama and Pembina Pipeline.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Pres. Trump’s tariffs: There’s downside protection to the markets
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Pres. Trump’s tariffs: There’s downside protection to the markets – YouTube
Trump Tariffs: Volatility, Bearish SPX Signals & Crude Oil Impact: Schwab Network
Trump Tariffs: Volatility, Bearish SPX Signals & Crude Oil Impact – YouTube
Mexico’s president describes call with Trump that led to pause in tariffs
Mexico’s president describes call with Trump that led to pause in tariffs – YouTube
"It shows there are deals to be made" | What’s in store for Canada in wake of Mexico tariff delay
Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin: Sustained tariffs could hit S&P earnings by 2-3%
Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin: Sustained tariffs could hit S&P earnings by 2-3% – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller Monday 2/3/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXd_uuv8Vrw
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.60 to 48.40. It remains neutral. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.40 to 60.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
After peaking at 83.00 last Tuesday, the short term Barometer (20 day) plunged 6.40 yesterday to 63.40. It remains Overbought and continues to trend down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 4.95 to 33.78. It remains Oversold. Daily trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped 1.35 to 60.81. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The short term (20 day) Barometer dropped plunged 10.36 to 36.04. It changed from neutral to oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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February 4th, 2025 at 7:54 am
Well here we are back from the brink and after panic yesterday CAD is more or less back to where it was and hopefully we will see some recovery in stocks. Trump was just “misunderstood” and actually doesn’t want a trade war. He just wants his “tribute” like any self-respecting mafioso. We can all make predictions. I think there will be an agreement after some very hard negotiations and in the end hopefully within 30 days or perhaps with a further extension that will lift uncertainty off of markets and particularly the Canadian market.
February 4th, 2025 at 10:04 am
China will be talking to Trump today. China puts tariffs on the oil and gas. Why would China do this when their citizens will be paying for it. China imports more than they produce. Other than getting the citizens to pay for the debt that governments have created, this whole thing feels like it’s been orchestrated.
February 4th, 2025 at 12:40 pm
Hard to say, but looks like the bounce will wade today. I still think we are in for a correction before we get a meaningful lift in the market again. We will know more over the next 8 weeks were market are typically soft.
February 4th, 2025 at 1:54 pm
This market is going to the moon.
February 4th, 2025 at 7:18 pm
CAD is not trading close to 0.70 for no reason.
“We would expect much of the tariff premium to be priced out, as it looks likely that a deal will be made,” Noah Buffam, an analyst in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s fixed income, currency and commodity unit, said in a note on Tuesday morning. David Rosenberg is saying the same.“We can safely say this tariff file overhanging Canada and Mexico is going to fade away,” David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and Associates Inc., said in a note on Tuesday “The 30-day reprieve is a joke. Trump is not raising tariffs and probably was never going to.”
Still it provokes a lot of anxiety for us all.