Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday February 18th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 23 points at 8:35 AM EST.
The Canadian Dollar added 0.04 to US70.42 cents following release of Canada’s January Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was unchanged versus a 0.4% drop in December. Actual was a 0.1% gain. On a year-over-year basis, January CPI increased 1.9% from 1.8% in December.
Intel gained $1.39 to $24.96 on reports that Taiwan Semiconductors is considering a stake in Intel’s factories.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0014-5.png "clip_image001[4]")
Delta Airlines dropped $0.49 to $64.90 after one of its aircraft suffered a crash landing in Toronto.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0024-6.png "clip_image002[4]")
Constellation Brands advanced $14.06 to $177.00 on news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired a $1.24 billion stake in the company.
Citigroup slipped $0.53 to $84.08 after Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in the company.
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/clip_image0044-3.png "clip_image004[4]")
EquityClock’s Stock Market Outlook for February 18th
Data continues to point to a strained trend of consumer activity at the start of this new year. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/02/15/stock-market-outlook-for-february-18-2025/
Technical Scoop for February 17th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Diverging trends! On one hand, equity indices are responding to higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings and revenue results. Focuses this week are reports by Wal-Mart on Thursday and reports by a series of commodity companies throughout the week. Important equity indices and sectors either are near or above intermediate resistance levels. The NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) closed at an all-time closing high on Friday at 22,114.69. Notably stronger last week were European, Chinese and Emerging Market ETFs. On the other hand, analysts continue to lower consensus 2025 earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies: Projected earnings growth is robust, but has diminished slightly now that most of the major U.S. companies have reported.
What factor could cause North American equities to move significantly higher this week? Weakness in the U.S. Dollar?? The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETF: UUP completed double top patterns on Friday. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar is starting to impact commodity prices valued in U.S. Dollars. Gold is the obvious example. Other commodities are responding. The CRB Index reached a three year high last week.
An event that could influence the U.S. Dollar is negotiations on the U.S. government debt ceiling. The existing ceiling expires on March 14th.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Fourth quarter results released last week continued to encourage analysts: Estimates were raised again: 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date: 76% have reported higher than consensus earnings and 62% have reported higher than consensus revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted analysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 16.9% year-over-year increase, up from a 16.4% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained last week at 5.2%.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.2% earnings increase, up from 10.1% last week. Consensus for a revenue increase remained at 5.2%
Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered again last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for an 8.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 8.7% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.4% increase down from a 4.5% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.9% from a 10.2% increase last week. Consensus for second quarter revenues remained at a 4.7% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.4% increase, down from a 14.5% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues improved to a 5.5% increase, up from a previous 5.4% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.9%, down from a previous 13.3% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.1%, up from a 6.0% increase.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 12.7%, down from 13.0% last week and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%.
Earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026. Consensus calls for a 13.9% earnings increase, up from 13.8% last week. Consensus for revenue gains remain at 6.4%.
Economic News This Week
January Canadian Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.4% drop in December.
January U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop to 1.390 million units from 1.499 million units in December.
FOMC meeting minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday
February Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop to 19.4 from 44.3 in January.
January U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to be unchanged versus a 0.1% drop in December.
December Canadian Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 1.8% versus no change in November.
January U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip to 4.13 million units from 4.24 million units in December
February Michigan Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to be unchanged from January at 68.7.
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks at 12:45 PM EST on Friday.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 44 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial Average stock: Wal-Mart). Four TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 14th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 14h 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
This Week in Money: Bob Hoye, Martin Armstrong, Eric Hadik, Martin Straith
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for February 15th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
What is the VR Trader Annual Forecast Calling for 2025?
What is the VR Trader Annual Forecast Calling For? – HoweStreet
Stephanie Link: 2025 Market Outlook & Sectors To Watch
Stephanie Link: 2025 Market Outlook & Sectors To Watch – YouTube
Market Breadth Keeps SPX Steady, Weekend Volatility Lingers & Earnings Movers
Market Breadth Keeps SPX Steady, Weekend Volatility Lingers & Earnings Movers – YouTube
We’re in the later stages of a bull market, says Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon
We’re in the later stages of a bull market, says Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon – YouTube
Julius de Kempenaer on Market Visualizations and Sector Rotation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66yeULAVr54
What Does UMich Inflation Expectations Data Tell Us? | Profit Pilot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxv8zpceUXw
Keys To Uncovering Big Winners! Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo4ibIxjR8w
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – February 15, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2SlRGSMShE
Technical Notes for Friday
U.S. Telecommunications iShares $IYZ moved above $28.51 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Verisk Analytics $VRSK a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $296.18 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
AirBNB $ABNB a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $148.64 extending an intermediate uptrend. A leader in the Chinese technology sector!
Lulu Lemon $LULU a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $367.15 and $366.95 completing a double top pattern.
CAE $CAE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$36.68 to a 3 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$63.75 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and dropped 6.20 last week to 54.40. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and increased 0.60 last week to 60.00. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.07on Friday and slipped 0.45 last week to 43.89. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.26 on Friday fell 1.36 last week to 60.63. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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February 18th, 2025 at 9:16 am
re: Paula from Friday
CNQ is coming up on a seasonal buy. At these prices near 52wk lows, it could be a good trade. Trade worked well last year. Not sure if buying now is good or wait tile March 6 earnings.