The Bottom Line
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is following its typical seasonal pattern for the month of February: During the past 20 years, the Average has a history of moving lower from mid-February to mid-March.
Economic News This Week
January U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to drop to 677,000 from 698,000 in December
January Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% increase in December.
Next estimate for fourth quarter U.S. GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to remain unchanged at a 2.3% annualized estimate.
January Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% gain in December.
January U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in December. January U.S. Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.7% gain in December.
January U.S. Wholesale Inventories released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.5% drop in December.
December Canadian GDP released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.2% decline in November.
Selected Earnings News This Week
U.S. focus this week is on quarterly results released by NVidia on Wednesday
Canadian focus this week is on fiscal first quarter reports released by Canada’s largest banks
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings:
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved below 43,879.06 completing a double top pattern. Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved below $438.05 completing a double top pattern.
Retail SPDRs moved below $77.08 completing a double top pattern
Weakness in Amazon.com below support at $216.20, Salesforce.com below support at $313.80 and UnitedHealth Group below support at $475.82 were major contributors to technical breakdowns by Dow Jones Industrial Average, Consumer Discretionary SPDRs and Retail SPDRs. Other S&P100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below intermediate support included Align, Old Dominion Freight Lines, Ross Stores and Synopsys.
Bucking the trend were a few S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving higher extending an intermediate uptrend. They included MercadoLibre on a move above $2,161.73 to an all-time high, Abbott Labs on a move above $134.10 to an all-time high and Keurig Dr. Pepper on a move above $33.72.
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for February 22nd
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Are You Ready to Invest in Alien Inspired Tech? Mark Leibovit
Are You Ready to Invest in Alien Inspired Tech? – HoweStreet
Alibaba will be the big winner when it comes to AI in China, says Wedbush’s Dan Ives
Alibaba will be the big winner when it comes to AI in China, says Wedbush’s Dan Ives – YouTube
SPX Battles for Winning Week, Potential Pullback Signaled By VIX: Schwab Network
SPX Battles for Winning Week, Potential Pullback Signaled By VIX – YouTube
Chart Check on S&P, Banks, WMT, China & PLTR: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth
Chart Check on S&P, Banks, WMT, China & PLTR – YouTube
The EXACT Date of Next Stock Market Crash: Marc Chaikan
(Predicts a peak in U.S. equity markets in early 2026 corresponding with the Presidential cycle followed by a significant downtrend)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvhr82VnkzU
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 2/21/25: David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cz05GDNg2gE
Are Stocks Heading Lower? In These Areas…..YES! Mary Ellen McGonagle
Are Stocks Heading Lower? In These Areas…..YES! – YouTube
Nvidia’s earnings preview, options, and stock outlook: Yahoo Finance
Nvidia’s earnings preview, options, and stock outlook – YouTube
Three Signs of the Bear and What May Come Next! David Keller
Three Signs of the Bear and What May Come Next! | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Could Fort Knox Gold Cure US Debt? Bob Hoye
Could Fort Knox Gold Cure US Debt? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for February 22nd 2025
Trading Desk Notes for February 22, 2025 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.40 on Friday and fell 1.20 last week to 53.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.60 on Friday and fell 0.20 last week to 59.80. It returned to Neutral on Friday.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.45 on Friday, but gained 2.02 last week to 45.91. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.09 on Friday and fell 1.54 last week to 59.09. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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February 23rd, 2025 at 8:50 pm
Fish
Every 3-4 years oil tends to make a low in the 40-60 range. Last time was around 3 years ago so we are due based on the historical trend. Plus oil inventory in the US (the most visible inventory) has been trending up for the past 6 weeks, economic conditions around the world remain weak and refining margins are low.
February 23rd, 2025 at 9:46 pm
Bman/Van,
What you say makes a lot of sense and unfortunately, the chart for $WTIC doesn’t look bullish. At best, in a trading range.
https://schrts.co/aJPegDFh
February 23rd, 2025 at 9:48 pm
This chart shows the trading range better:
https://schrts.co/eScMuWij