The Bottom Line
Seasonal weakness in U.S. equity markets continues: Analysts continue to lower earnings estimates for large cap U.S. companies. A possible temporary shutdown of U.S. government finances looms prior to expiry of the debt ceiling on March 14th. Seasonal influences historically have bottomed in the second half of March. Technical signs of a bottom by major U.S. equity indices have yet to appear. Patience by traders will be rewarded.
Equity markets outside of North American continue to impress. Notable gains were recorded last week by China, Hong Kong, Emerging Market and European ETFs
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 were lowered again. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.3 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 7.6% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues remained at a 4.3% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.7% from a 9.8% increase last week. Consensus for second quarter revenues remained at a 4.7% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 12.1% increase, down from a 14.3% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues growth slipped to 5.4% from a 5.5% increase last week. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.6%. Fourth quarter revenues gains were unchanged at 6.1%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 11.6%, down from a 12.1% increase last week. Revenue gains were lowered to 5.4% from 5.5% last week.
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026. Consensus calls for a 14.1% earnings increase, up from 14.0% last week Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
February U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.5% gain in January. Excluding food and energy, February CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in January.
Bank of Canada Statement on Interest Rates is released at 9:45 AM EST on Wednesday Press conference is offered at 10:30 AM EST. Consensus calls for a 0.25% drop in the Bank of Canada’s lending rate to major Canadian banks.
February Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in January. Excluding food and energy, consensus calls for a 0.3% increase versus a 0.3% gain in January.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 7th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 7th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 7th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes
Bank SPDRs $KBE moved below $53.06 completing a double top pattern. Leading the breakdown were Capital One $COF on a move below $173.44 and Wells Fargo $WFG on a move below $66.27
S&P/TSX Global Gold iShares $XGD.TO moved above $Cdn26.28 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Led by American Barrick on a move above Cdn$26.83.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above resistance extending intermediate uptrends included McDonald’s $MCD on a move above 314.19 (All-time high), Check Point $CHKP on a move above $226.02 (All-time high), Bristol Myers $BMY on a move above $61.10, Colgate Palmolive $CL on a move above $97.41 and Kraft Heinz $KHC on a move above $31.80
Amazon $AMZN moved below intermediate support at $195.75 extending an intermediate downtrend.
BCE $BCE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$35.90 completing a double bottom pattern.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 8th
(Includes a comment from Mark Leibovit)
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Will This Selling Accelerate? 3 Key Charts to Watch! Tom Bowley
Will This Selling Accelerate? 3 Key Charts to Watch! – YouTube
Sector Rotation Warning: More Downside Ahead for US Markets?
Sector Rotation Warning: More Downside Ahead for US Markets? – YouTube
US Crypto Reserve: Mark Leibovit
US “Crypto-Reserve” – HoweStreet
Long-term investing with gold: Bryden Tiech
Long-term investing with gold – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 3/7/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4aJyDa-kUA
Stock Market WARNING: More Volatility Ahead? Keith Richards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68iyVPHR8no
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 8th, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca64KLq1ZFM
Oil Tariffs, Market Volatility & Energy Stock Opportunities | Eric Nuttall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhbFvIhAZOA
Will Gold Hold Value if Markets Crash? Bob Hoye
Will Gold Hold Value if Markets Crash? – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for March 8, 2025: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for March 8, 2025 – HoweStreet
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.00 on Friday, but dropped 7.80 last week to 47.40. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 2.80 on Friday, but dropped 7.60 last week to 52.40. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.64 on Friday, but dropped 2.28 last week to 45.45. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 3.64 on Friday, but dropped 4.09 last week to 54.55. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
Equity Clock Publications