Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 24th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 67 points at 8:30 AM EDT. Index futures were boosted by news that President Trump will hold back some of his announced tariffs.
Boeing advanced $3.01 to $181.12 and Lockheed Martin dropped $6.70 to $433.19 after Boeing won the contract to build the next U.S. jet fighter. Lockheed was the other manufacturer that was bidding on the contract.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/clip_image0021-2.png "clip_image002[1]")
Nvidia added $2.20 to $119.90 on news that tariffs will not be appliend on microchips imported into the U.S.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for March 24th
The inventory of existing homes for sale is rising at the fastest rate in decades, threatening to weigh on prices so long as demand fails to keep pace. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/03/22/stock-market-outlook-for-march-24-2025/
Technical Scoop for March 24th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Equity indices in Canada and the U.S. are following their traditional seasonal patterns: an intermediate term bottom near mid-March followed by a Spring rally. Historically, U.S. equity indices have moved higher until the first week in May and the TSX Composite has moved higher until the first week in June.
The “CNN Fear and Greed Index” continues to move higher. It has recovered from 14 on March 10th to 23 on Friday. A level below 25 is rated as “Extreme Fear” See:
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Look for raised volatility in North American equity markets prior to President Trump’s April 2nd deadline to impose tariffs.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered slightly last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, unchanged from last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth remained at 4.2%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains slipped to 9.4% from 9.5% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains slipped to 4.6% from 4.7%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 12.0%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained unchanged last week at 5.4%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.4%, down from 11.5% last week. Fourth quarter revenue gains slipped to 6.0% from 6.1% last week.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 11.4%, down from an 11.5% increase last week. Revenue gains were 5.4%, unchanged from last week.
Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026. Consensus calls for a 14.2% earnings gain, unchanged from last week. Consensus for revenue gains remain at 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
February U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 682,000 from 657,000 in January.
February U.S. Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to drop 0.6% versus a 3.1% gain in January.
Fourth quarter U.S. GDP (second revision) released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to grow at a 2.3% annual rate versus a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
February Core PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in January.
February U.S. Personal Income released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus 0.9% in January. February Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.6%
Canada’s January GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in December.
March Michigan Consumer Sentiment release at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 57.9 from 64.7 in February.
Earnings News This Week
Six S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 22st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 21st 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Mike’s Money Talks for March 22nd 2025
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Martin Armstrong on tariffs, the stock market, gold and much more.
Martin Armstrong on tariffs, the stock market, gold and much more. – YouTube
Market showing increasing signs we are at a tradable bottom, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
Market showing increasing signs we are at a tradable bottom, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – YouTube
Market Uncertainty, Trade Wars and Stagflation Risks with David Rosenberg
Market Uncertainty, Trade Wars and Stagflation Risks with David Rosenberg – YouTube
Stocks Are in a ‘Rolling Recovery,’ Says Mike Wilson
Stocks Are in a ‘Rolling Recovery,’ Says Mike Wilson – YouTube
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 3/21/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw0-cSaW0yo
Stocks in Focus: 3 Stocks to Watch: Jay Wood
Stocks in Focus: 3 Stocks to Watch | A View From The Floor | StockCharts.com
This Week in Money: Ross Clark, Todd Calendar, Josef Schachter, Mark Leibovit
This Week in Money – HoweStreet
Cycles, not tariffs could be driving down stocks: Bob Hoye
Cycles, Not Tariffs, Could Be Driving Down Stocks – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for March 22, 2025: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for March 22, 2025 – HoweStreet
Technical Notes for Friday
Nike $NKE a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $68.27 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to lower fiscal fourth quarter guidance!
FedEx $FDX an S&P 100 stock moved below $237.94, $228.49 and $217.54 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to lower fiscal fourth quarter guidance!
NXP Semiconductor $NXPI a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $197.24 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Gildan Activeware $GIL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$68.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.40 on Friday, but gained 0.40 last week to 34.60. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.40 on Friday, but added 2.20 last week to 42.80. It remains Neutral
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.73 on Friday but gained 7.73 last week to 52.73. It remains Neutral
The long term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday but gained 2.73 last week to 55.00. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 24th, 2025 at 4:15 pm
We can’t know what Trump is thinking but he and his circle know that they were creating a crisis of confidence in both industry and the consumer that is dangerous. You can guess that they felt the need to pull back. There are limits to what they can do to push a tariff war without causing a recession that they don’t want to be blamed for. I would not hazard a guess on where Canada comes out on April 2nd but judging from rhetoric I am not that optimistic. Should Carney win the election it will be interesting to see Trump negotiate with him and you know Trump’s fragile ego will be hurt knowing he is nowhere near Carney’s level of intellect and economic knowledge.
March 24th, 2025 at 4:31 pm
Larry, re your last line …intellect and knowledge, that won’t bother Trump. I’m selling my stocks before Apr. 2, it will be chaotic for sure. Maybe some buying opps?