Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday March 25^th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 14 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

KB Home dropped $5.39 to $56.40 after reporting less than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

Oklo dropped $1.34 to $29.57 after reporting a quarterly loss.

Carvana added $10.93 to $224.56 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Overweight.

McCormick dropped $2.34 to $78.00 after reporting less than consensus fiscal first quarter results.

EquityClock’s Market Outlook for March 25^th

A divergence in the relative trends of Canadian and US Small Caps has been highlighting the growing risk sentiment towards commodity sensitive stocks globally, despite tariff threats. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/03/24/stock-market-outlook-for-march-25-2025/

Technical Notes

Canadian “Gassy” stocks such as ARC Resources $ARX.TO continue to lead the Canadian energy sector. ARC Resources moved above Cdn$28.15 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Franco-Nevada $FNV a TSX 60 stock moved above US$157.64 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 24^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 24^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 24^th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Links offered by Valued Providers

Is This The "Trump Put" Markets Have Been Waiting For? Guy Adami and Dan Nathan

Is This The "Trump Put" Markets Have Been Waiting For? – YouTube

"Dynamics Have Changed:" SPX Bull Charge & VVIX Plunges

"Dynamics Have Changed:" SPX Bull Charge & VVIX Plunges – YouTube

Investors should hold back on making any big moves until this date

Investors should hold back on making any big moves until this date – YouTube

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Monday 3/24/25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89lFdAYHIKo

Comments for Wolf and Jack for March 20^th 2025

(Notes developed prior to March 22^nd for a “Wolf on Bay Street” interview on Radio 640)

Several technical indicators have appeared during the past week suggesting that a seasonal bottom for U.S. equities in 2025 has been reached:

History is repeating in 2025: The S&P 500 Index in the first year of the four year Presidential cycle, when an incumbent party loses and the other party takes control (i.e. when control flips from Democrat to Republican or vice versa) shows a recurring pattern: a drop into mid-March followed by a strong recovery into early May and a stronger recovery from late September to the end of the year. This time, the Republicans gained control of Congress from the Democrats on January 20^th 2025.See yellow line on the chart below:

Weakness in U.S. equity indices in early 2025 has occurred despite an encouraging and accelerating earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies. Consensus calls for earnings on a year-over year basis by S&P 500 companies to increase 7.1% in the first quarter, 9.5% in the second quarter, 12.0% in the third quarter and 11.5% in the fourth quarter. Gains accelerate in 2026: Consensus calls for a 14.1% increase over 2025.

Extreme bearish sentiment for U.S. equities is setting up for a classic reversal recovery. Investor sentiment for U.S. equity allocation held by major funds has reached an extremely bearish level this March. A recent study tracking change in U.S. equity allocations by major funds for the month of March showed the biggest drop in U.S. equity allocation on record. First technical signs of a bottom will trigger a major reversal and recovery by U.S. equity indices.

Canadian equity indices are about to enter their strongest period of seasonal strength from mid-March to the first week in June.

Canadian equity prices are expected to benefit from recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar. First and second quarter earnings by major Canadian companies will benefit from a drop in the Canadian Dollar relative to the U.S. Dollar during the past year. The Canadian Dollar has dropped from US74.00 cents in the first quarter last year to its current US70.00 cent level. Major beneficiaries are Canadian companies producing and selling their products and services to the U.S: (notably companies producing base metals, fertilizer and precious metals).

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 6.00 to 40.60. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.

The long term Barometer gained 6.80 to 49.60. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is up.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer advanced 7.73 to 60.45. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.

Note that the short term (20 days) Barometer advanced 8.18 to 71.82. Daily uptrend was extended.

The long term Barometer added 2.73 to 57.73. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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