Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 4th
U.S. equity index futures were sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 157 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
Index futures responded partially to China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs with a 34% tariff on U.S. imported goods.
S&P 500 futures dropped an additional 9 points at 8:35 AM EDT following release of the March U.S. Non-farm Payrolls at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop to 140,000 from 151,000 in February. Actual was an increase to 228,000. March Unemployment Rate was expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% in February. Actual was an increase to 4.2%. March Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 0.3% versus unchanged in February. Actual was a 0.3% increase. On a year-over-year basis, March Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 3.9% versus a 4.0% gain in February. Actual was a 3.8% increase.
The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.17 to US70.32 cents following release of Canada’s March Employment Change released at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 10,000 increase from a 1,100 increase in February. Actual was a 32,900 drop. Consensus for March Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.6%. Actual was an increase to 6.7%
Magnificent 7 ETF plunged $2.01 to $41.93 in response to increasing tariff wars.
Tesla plunged $15.50 to $251.69 following news of China’s tariffs on U.S. goods.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0021-1.png "clip_image002[1]")
KraftHeinz dropped $0.18 to $30.63 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 4th
The bond market is saying A LOT about where we are in this economic and stock market cycle. See:
Technical Notes for Friday
Notable Sector ETFs breaking intermediate support yesterday included:
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking intermediate support yesterday included:
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above intermediate resistance included
TSX 60 stocks breaking intermediate support included
Yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries
It dropped below intermediate support at 4.126% and 4.106% to a six month low completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Kudlow breaks down the impact of Trump’s tariff agenda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRObS4OfJlg
China vows countermeasures if U.S. doesn’t immediately cancel tariffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDzFeBGo7KU
Canada’s prime minister reacts to Trump’s tariffs
Canada’s prime minister reacts to Trump’s tariffs – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 10.40 to 32.40. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00.
The long term Barometer plunged 12.40 to 37.40. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 14.22 to 44.04. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer plunged 11.93 to 47.71. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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April 4th, 2025 at 7:24 am
$CAD – I really had difficulty understanding the fundamental reasons for a rise in CAD yesterday. CAD goes up in a risk on environment and this environment is the opposite. There was the idea that negativity was priced in over an extended period of time and the tariff announcement with Canada left without additional tariffs was somehow positive. There is nothing positive going on. Canada is at a severe disadvantage in any tariff war with the hit to our economy being greater in relative terms. This morning you are seeing a reversal of yesterday’s pop up. Trump is out of his mind and is single handedly leading the world into a global slow-down or quite likely global recession. Look to James Carville’s comment that “the Trump collapse is happening quicker than I imagined.”
April 4th, 2025 at 11:02 am
Larry
Looks like yesterday’s selling has started margin calls in accounts which will start the self reinforcing the process of more selling until people have a large margin of safety in accounts. Likely next target is 4800-4950, but I am not so sure we will not be testing the 50 month limit of 4500 within April.
April 4th, 2025 at 1:51 pm
Bman/Van – Cramer was pencilling in 4800. We have to get the SP500 average PE down to 16 before anything is worth buying. Momentum could cause the market to shoot to a lower extreme so even 4500 is possible.