Pre-opening Comments for Thursday April 10th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 88 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures recovered 22 points following release of the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 0.1% increase versus a 0.2% gain in February. Actual was a 0.1% drop. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 2.6% increase versus 2.8% in February. Actual was a 2.4% increase. Excluding food and energy, consensus for March CPI was a 0.3% increase versus a 0.2% gain in February. Actual was a 0.1% increase. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was a 3.0% increase versus 3.1% increase in February. Actual was a 2.8% increase.
Costco advanced $4.71 to $969.90 after reporting stronger than consensus sales in March
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0014-3.png "clip_image001[4]")
Microsoft dropped $5.18 to $385.31 after Wedbush lowered its target price from $550 to $475.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0024-4.png "clip_image002[4]")
US Steel dropped $4.54 to $40.60 after President Trump reaffirmed his preference to blocking a takeover offer from Japan’s Nippon Steel.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 10th
The S&P 500 Index just recorded the 11th largest single session gain in the past 100 years.
https://equityclock.com/2025/04/09/stock-market-outlook-for-april-10-2025/
Record for the VIX Index
According to Dow Jones Market Data, the VIX Index recorded its biggest daily point drop in history yesterday.
![clip_image004[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0044-3.png "clip_image004[4]")
Technical Notes
Technical action by North American equity prices moved strongly higher after President Trump announced a 90 day pause on tariffs for goods imported from most countries. The exception was China. Prior to the news at 1:15 PM EDT, technical action by big cap U.S. equities had been negative: Verizon and Comcast had broken below in below support setting intermediate downtrends.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause: Stocks "Move a Month in 15 Minutes"
Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause: Stocks "Move a Month in 15 Minutes" – YouTube
Trump announces 90-day tariff pause for at least some countries
Trump announces 90-day tariff pause for at least some countries – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 11.00 to 17.00. It remains Oversold. Classic technical sign of a recovery from an intermediate low!
The long term Barometer jumped 13.20 to 41.80. It remains Oversold. Classic technical sign of a recovery from an intermediate low!
Short term (20 days) Barometer jumped from 2.00 to 19.60. Classic technical sign of an intermediate low!
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 12.39 to 28.44. It remains Oversold. Classic technical sign of an intermediate low!
The long term Barometer advanced 14.22 to 40.37. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Classic technical sign of an intermediate low!
Short term (20 days) Barometer advanced 18.35 to 22.02. It remains Oversold. Classic technical sign of an intermediate low!
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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April 10th, 2025 at 3:26 pm
The problems that world economies had prior to Trump’s partial backtracking really have not gone away. Goldman Sachs reversed their recession call but I think most others have not. The tariffs that were left on are still high and disruptive. Company decision making is still paralyzed. The US-China fight is on. We are in a bear market that will take some time before it’s over IMO. We had mega short-covering yesterday and no follow through today. USD is plummeting and after an early day bond rally the 10 year yield is now up on the day. Money is leaving the US.
April 10th, 2025 at 4:00 pm
Good summary Larry. It’s going to be bad news followed by bad news which will start to snowball the longer the uncertainty goes on. Given we are unlikely to see an end to the uncertainty before the summer, it seems to be me we will continue to be in a bear market event followed by and bear market cycle. Like 2008, I foresee and once in a decade investment opportunity once the market truly bottoms in the 4,000’s (or lower if things go from bad to terrible).
April 10th, 2025 at 4:54 pm
Janet Yellen: “This is the worst self-inflicted wound that I have ever seen an administration impose on a well-functioning economy”
Paul Krugman: “Anyone sounding the all-clear on tariffs, or Trump economic policy in general, should be kept away from sharp objects and banned from operating heavy machinery. Trump’s post-pause tariff regime remains the biggest trade shock in U.S., and I think world history”
We’re screwed economically.