Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 14th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 78 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Index futures responded to news that tariffs on semiconductors and iPhones are temporarily exempt. Apple gained $11.27 to $209.42. NVidia added $3.47 to $114.40.
Comcast dropped $0.33 to $33.39 after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 14th
The US Dollar Index is back to significant multi-year support in what has been a confounding move amidst this tariff war. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/04/12/stock-market-outlook-for-april-14-2025/
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Wild week for world markets! World equity indices moved higher (S&P 500 up 10.8% from its low on Monday), commodity prices in U.S. Dollars soared (GSG up 6.3% from its low on Wednesday) and the U.S. Dollar Index moved lower (down 4.49% from its high on Monday to its low on Friday). However, the prices of U.S. Treasury notes dropped 5.20% from their high on April 4th to its low on Friday possibly due to Chinese selling. What is wrong with this picture?
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the later part of 2025 recorded more declines last week. Estimates for revenue gains were slightly changed. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.3 % increase on a year-over-year basis, unchanged from last week. . Consensus for first quarter revenues growth increased to 4.3% from 4.2%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 8.2% from 9.1% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains slipped to 4.5% from 4.6%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.8% from 11.7% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth slipped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.3% from 11.2% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains slipped to 5.9% from 6.0%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 10.6%, down from an 11.3% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 5.3% from 5.4%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 14.2% and revenues are expected to increase 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
April Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to -14.80 from -20.00 in March.
Canada’s March Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.7% versus a 1.1% gain in February.
March U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.3% versus a 0.2% gain in February. Ex auto sales, March Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus 0.3% in February.
March U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to slip to 78.0% from 78.2 in February. March Industrial Production is expected to drop 0.2% versus a 0.7% gain in February.
Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to maintain the 2.75% rate charged to major banks. Press conference is scheduled at 10:30 AM EDT.
February U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in January.
March U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop to 1.420 million from 1.501 million units in February.
April Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 3.1 from 12.5 in March.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 32 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week (including six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). Focuses early this week are on first quarter results released by more money center banks: Results released by money center banks of Friday were impressive, significantly beating consensus estimates.
No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 11th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Notes for Friday
The U.S. Dollar Index moved below 100.16 and 99.58 to a three year low setting a long term downtrend. Conversely, the Canadian Dollar broke above US70.80 cents completing a double bottom pattern.
Commodity iShares (GSG) gained 6.14% from its low on Wednesday to its close on Friday. Responded to US Dollar weakness!
Changes last week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 12th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Markets – Some See Red, Others See Opportunity: Mark Leibovit
Markets – Some See Red, Others See Opportunity – HoweStreet
Wild Market Swings: Is This Hidden Accumulation by Market Makers? Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRe7m5MRscs
"It’s The Scariest Time That I’ve Ever Seen" – Dan Ives on Tariffs, The Mag7 & U.S. Tech Leadership
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iG_tSoAtYQ
Earnings From These 3 Stocks Could Be Key: Jay Wood
Earnings From These 3 Stocks Could Be Key | A View From The Floor | StockCharts.com
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – April 12, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peDGyMSxUjA
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 4/11/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hyX2eN-Dco
Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!! Josef Schachter
Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!!
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.60 on Friday and 7.40 last week to 20.40. It remains Oversold. Daily trend has turned up.
The long term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and 5.40 last week to 28.80. It remains Oversold, Daily trend has turned up.
Short term (20 days) Barometer added 9.80 on Friday and jumped 18.80 last week to 20.80
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 8.26 on Friday and 6.42 last week to 29.36. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 5.50 to 36.70 on Friday and 2.30 last week. It remains Oversold.
Short term (20 days) Barometer added 9.63 on Friday and 11.01 last week to 22.02.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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April 14th, 2025 at 4:22 pm
Bob Pisani on CNBC did a great segment on SPX valuation. We are now trading at the level of the optimistic forward target of a 10% increase in earnings which would be $267 at a 20 multiple giving you an SPX target of 5340.
5% increase (254) at an 18 multiple gives you 4572
0% increase at a 17 multiple gives you 4114 (17 multiple would be average in an earnings slowdown)
10% decrease at 17 multiple gives you 3706
20% decrease at 17 multiple gives you 3281
Bottom line is that it is hard to see potential upside and no one has a clue what earnings will be.
Mike Wilson from MS who has been very astute says we are more in the later stages of a bear market and will remain in a trading range between 4800 and 5500 for another 3-6 months with probably a series of retests of the bottom.
My biggest long-term concern is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China wants to be ready to do it by 2027 and you can look up the photos of the massive landing barges they have conducted drills with. They may go in as early as next year if they are ready and the total decoupling of trade with the US leaves them with nothing to lose an the hardliners pushing for it. At some point the market will need to price this in and Taiwan produces 60% world semi chips including virtually everything from NVDA.
April 14th, 2025 at 9:14 pm
Larry,
Thanks for posting this. I like Bob Pisani and his unbiased perspective. I did hear Mike Wilson and he is probably quite realistic in his expectations. When he speaks of a bear market, I believe his means from a relative perspective, i.e. the SMH has been underperforming SPY since July 2024, so not a bear like where the whole market is down 20% or more. Which of course, is what we came close to last week. It’s hard to believe we can avoid a prolonged bear and economic downturn as long as the current dictator is controlling the US. Where are the checks and balances that were supposed to prevent this or is everyone in charge as corrupt as the orange cheetoh?
The scariest thing you said was that “with the total decoupling of trade with the US, China has nothing to lose…” You don’t really want an enemy that has nothing to lose and the modern world is so dependent on Taiwan.