Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 16th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 40 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures were unchanged following release of March U.S. Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a 1.3% increase versus a 0.2% gain in February. Actual was a 1.4% gain. Excluding auto sales, consensus was a 0.4% increase versus a 0.2% gain in February. Actual was a 0.5% gain.
Netflix advanced $5.11 to $981.39 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0014-5.png "clip_image001[4]")
Interactive Brokers dropped $9.92 to $163.51 after reporting less than consensus first quarter earnings.
Omnicom Group dropped $2.75 to $74.08 after reporting less than consensus first quarter earnings.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0034-4.png "clip_image003[4]")
Nvidia dropped $3.94 to $108.26 following a $5.5 billion charge resulting from the U.S. government’s block of H20 chip sales to China.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 16th
A number of traditional buy signals for stocks have been triggered. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/04/15/stock-market-outlook-for-april-16-2025/
Technical Notes
TSX Materials iShares $XMA.TO moved above Cdn$25.71 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Could This Be the Start of a Bigger Drop? Bearish Phase CONFIRMED: Dave Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLjwTZsOSc4
The Big & Small Moves for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Miners: TheTechnicalTraders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZDXB7ri_Tc
Investors Are The Most Bearish In 30 Years. Time To Buy Stocks? Guy Adami and Dan Nathan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpFXglq_mlI
Market Expectations vs. Reality: Cameron Dawson on 2025 Outlook, Tariffs, Fed, and Volatility: Cameron Dawson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49nD8CEIsqI
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.40 to 26.20. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 31.60. It remains Oversold.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.21 to 37.61. It remains Oversold. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer added 2.75 to 43.58. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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April 16th, 2025 at 10:05 am
SPX – Failed another attempt to break through the declining 20 day MA which is going to keep putting pressure on SPX to go lower. You also have the 50/200 “death cross” now on the chart. Scary! I like counting the days backwards on the candlesticks to see which ones are coming off each day to move the MA. The 20 day MA should continue to decline for the next two weeks and then flatten. We would have to have some kind of big catalyst like a trade agreement to change market direction to up. Taking a guess I think we make a test of the bottom within two weeks. We haven’t had any real negative economic data yet but the data releases obviously lag what’s going on. Once those start coming in next month how can the market handle it?
April 16th, 2025 at 12:30 pm
Hi Larry
Yeah, the market continues to look ominous. Gold was raised yesterday at Goldman and another US bank so you get the underly tone risk is not expected to go away any time soon. I suspect once the data goes bad and we do not have a solution, the market will then pick up speed to the downside. Best guess is Oct might be a good time to buy if the market has fully discounted the situation. Feels like a 2008 situation where we are looking at 40-50% peak to trough before a bottom is found. This might be just me fear mongering, but “this time is different” (famous last words). Good luck to everyone.