Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 21st
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 57 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Netflix advanced $28.97 to $1,003.00 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.
![clip_image001[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0014-7.png "clip_image001[4]")
Tesla dropped $9.54 to $231.80 after Barclays lowered its target price from $325 to $275.
![clip_image002[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0024-7.png "clip_image002[4]")
Comerica added $0.55 to $53.50 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.
![clip_image003[4]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0034-5.png "clip_image003[4]")
Capital One advanced $7.73 to $170.50 after receiving regulatory approval for its merger with Discover.
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 21st
Watch the 4800 to 4950 zone for the S&P 500 Index as a violation of this range through the off-season for stocks would likely indicate that the economy is in recession. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/04/17/stock-market-outlook-for-april-21-2025/
Technical Scoop for April 21st from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
Currency trends are having a significant impact on equity price performance. Continuing weakness in the U.S. Dollar related to political uncertainty and corresponding strength in other currencies (notably the Canadian Dollar) are having a substantial impact on equity prices.
Sector most influenced by U.S. Dollar weakness has been the materials sector. S&P/TSX Materials iShares vaulted to an all-time high last week. Relative strength in the sector is expected to continue until uncertainty related to political events in the U.S (and Canada) abates.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for the first quarter of 2025 changed slightly last week despite higher than consensus results released to date. Consensus for first quarter earnings called for a 7.2 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from 7.3% last week. . Consensus for first quarter revenues growth remained unchanged at 5.3%.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter were reduced significantly. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.2% from 8.2% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains dropped to 4.2% from 4.5%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.7% from 10.8% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth dropped to 5.0% from 5.3%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 9.3% from 10.3% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains dropped to 5.6% from 5.9%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 10.0%, down from a 10.6% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 5.1% from 5.3%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 14.2%, down from 14.1% last week. Revenues are expected to increase 6.4%, down from 6.5%.
Economic News This Week
March U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 680,000 from 676,000 in February.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday
March Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.8% versus a 0.9% increase in February.
March U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 4.14 million units from 4.26 million units in February.
February Canadian Retail Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop 0.4% versus a 0.6% drop in January.
April Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 50.8 from 57.6 in March.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 122 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including seven Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). Four TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 17th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU completed a so called “Death Cross” on Friday when its 50 day moving average dropped below its 200 day moving average.
India ETF $PIN moved above US$25.46 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Saputo $SAP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$25.91 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Algonquin Power $AQN.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$7.51 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 19th
April 19 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
GOLD MAY BE OVERBOUGHT FOR NOW: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/04/gold-may-be-over-bought-for-now-mark-leibovit/
Investors should use the relief rally to reduce exposure, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton
Investors should use the relief rally to reduce exposure, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton – YouTube
Why Wall Street strategists are slashing their S&P 500 targets: Barclays
Why Wall Street strategists are slashing their S&P 500 targets – YouTube
Nvidia’s $5.5B hit may prove the AI digestion phase is here, says Niles Investment’s Dan Niles
CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Thursday 4/17/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkuOzySwCvI
Market Makers Are Buying BIG — Should You Be Too? Tom Bowley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXT-NacoO5o
This is the Group to Watch for the Next Bull Market Phase and Separating Noise from Reality: Tom Bowley
Safer Stock Picks for an Uncertain Market (High Yield + Growth)
Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esgdq8lN1OE
Will Gold Stocks Eventually Catch Up to Bullion?
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/04/will-gold-stocks-eventually-catch-up-to-bullion-bob-hoye/
Expect Near Test Of Last Week’s WTI Low of US$56.06/b. This Should Provide Great Buying Opportunity For Energy Investors: Josef Schachter
Trading Desk Notes for April 19, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/04/trading-desk-notes-for-april-19-2025/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.00 on Friday and gained 4.20 last week to 24.60. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday and gained 3.20 last week to 32.00. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.92 on Friday and gained 13.76 last week to 43.12. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 1.38 on Friday and advanced 7.80 last week to 44.50. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00. Daily trend is up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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April 21st, 2025 at 11:11 am
Consensus for all of 2025 earnings gains quoted above at 10%. I am amazed at that level of optimism. I’m thinking that number will be cut further. Trump is really flirting with bond market doomsday when he proposes firing Jay Powell. I suspect that he is just pressuring the Fed for a May 6th cut and would not go through with firing Powell. IMO USD will not find support until 0.80 Euro (1.25).
April 21st, 2025 at 12:21 pm
Larry, thanks for your frequent thoughtful posts and congratulations on your recent retirement (if I recall correctly). I also recently retired and am heavy short term bonds/cash (+ some cdn utilities) with the plan of index buys lower as they revalue (eg: S&P target ~4600 though policy shift could change this). In hindsight heavy gold would have been smart but I mostly missed that trade and it looks extended here.
April 21st, 2025 at 2:51 pm
Paul I like Steve Weiss on the CNBC lunch time show. He was talking about valuation being too high just like Bob Pisani mapped out a week ago and his bottom target is 4000-4500. Weeks ago I caught Cramer throwing out 4,000 as possibly the ultimate low. Gold will make corrections along the way and I see it overextended but the overall direction should continue to be upward for a long time in this stressed global economy. If you are dumping stocks, USD and t-bills where do you put your money? It’s gold and the euro right now. On the euro I was looking at the past peak from over four years ago which is actually 1.23. Here’s a scary point: BofA says institutions have not yet “sold hard”. The selling is not washed out and they say “if US tariff/tax/rate cuts don’t materialize” the market will sell off much worse. I wish I didn’t have to be the voice of doom here.