Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 28th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Domino’s Pizza dropped $12.35 to $475.23 after reporting less than consensus first quarter revenues.
AbbVie added $0.26 to $186.32 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
Nvidia dropped $1.63 to $109.38 after Huawei launched a new chip called Ascend 9100 that will compete against Nvidia’s higher level chips.
Eli Lilly dropped $13.91 to $870.63 after HSBC downgraded the stock.
![clip_image004[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/clip_image0041-4.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Market Outlook for April 28th
Transportation stocks failed to participate in Friday’s broad market gain, providing a troubling sign for the market and the economy moving forward. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/04/25/stock-market-outlook-for-april-28-2025/
Technical Scoop for April 28th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
The Bottom Line
First quarter results released to date by major North American companies have been a pleasant surprise. Most large cap companies significantly exceeded consensus earnings estimates. Equity prices responded accordingly. Strength in equity prices was recorded despite concerns about U.S. tariff wars that prompted analysts to lower earnings and revenue estimates for the remainder of 2025.
Focuses this week are on quarterly reports released by big cap technology companies. 180 S&P 500 companies have reported to date. Another 180 companies are scheduled to report this week.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 increased substantially last week after reported results significantly exceeded consensus: 36% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. Consensus for first quarter earnings now calls for a 10.1% increase on a year-over-year basis, up from 7.2% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth dropped to 4.6% from 5.3%.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter once again were reduced significantly. Analysts are responding to frequent company comments that “Although first quarter results were better than expected, we are cautious about future quarters”. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 6.4% from 7.2% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains dropped to 4.0% from 4.2%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 8.8% from 9.7% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth dropped to 4.8% from 5.0%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 8.3% from 9.3% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains dropped to 5.0% from 5.6%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.7%, down from a 10.0% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 5.0% from 5.1%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.8%, down from 14.2% last week. Revenues are expected to increase 6.3%, down from 6.4%.
Economic News This Week
Canadian Federal Election is held on Monday
March Wholesale Inventories released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.3% gain in February.
U.S. First Quarter GDP update released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to grow 0.4% versus a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter.
Canada’s February GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to be unchanged versus a 0.4% gain in January.
April Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to drop to 45.9 from 47.6 in March.
March Core PCE Price Index released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.4% gain in February.
March Personal Income released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.8% gain in February. March Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.6% versus a 0.4% gain in February
March U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.7% gain in February.
April ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 48.0 from 49.0 in March.
April Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop to 129,000 from 228,000 in March. April Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from March at 4.2%. April Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in March.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 25th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for April 26th 2025
April 26 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
Silver holding up as gold loosens grip: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/04/silver-holding-up-as-gold-loosens-grip-mark-leibovit/
Wedbush’s Dan Ives: The only safety in tech right now is software
Wedbush’s Dan Ives: The only safety in tech right now is software – YouTube
Jeff Huge Reveals Downside for S&P 500 and Upside for Precious Metals: David Keller
Jeff Huge Reveals Downside for S&P 500 and Upside for Precious Metals – YouTube
Strategist talks market signals for investors to watch: Michele Schneider
Strategist talks market signals for investors to watch – YouTube
BMO’s Brian Belski on his bullish optimism in the markets
BMO’s Brian Belski on his bullish optimism in the markets – YouTube
Market Forces Beyond Control of the Fed: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/04/market-forces-beyond-control-of-the-fed-bob-hoye/
Technical Notes for Friday
Germany iShares $EWG moved above $39.36 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Chipotle $CMG a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $51.50 completing a double bottom pattern.
Gilead $GILD a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $97.32 extending an intermediate downtrend.
T-Mobil $TMUS an S&P 100 stock moved below $238.65 extending an intermediate downtrend despite reporting impressive quarterly results.
Changes last week
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.40 on Friday, but gained 8.20 last week to 32.80. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer added 0.60 on Friday and gained 2.80 last week to 34.80. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.21 on Friday, but gained 6.42 last week to 50.92. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 0.46 on Friday and gained 5.96 last week to 50.46. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
|
|
April 28th, 2025 at 12:18 pm
Thanks Paula, BmanVan and Fishfat for your comments on TD and Cdn banks on Friday. I have been accumulating CM and some BMO. TD just took out its’ previous high. Wow! I thought TD had hair all over it because of the money laundering scandal and penalties but as you say Paula you just have to go with the chart. The yield on TD is quite nice.
April 28th, 2025 at 3:53 pm
CM – There is an interesting thing on the chart. You have the 20day MA crossing over both the 200 and the 50 day as all three converge.
April 28th, 2025 at 5:25 pm
Thanks to Larry, BmanVan and Fishfat for contributing to this discussion.
Larry, it’s like you read my mind. I do consider yield in my process since I rely on dividend income from stocks/etfs in an unregistered account. TD went x-dividend April 10th. If you want an explanation for the recent strength, probably, all the bad news from the money laundering is in the price plus there is a new CEO so somewhat of a clean slate.
RE CM. I don’t see the cross over of the 20-day but I do see that the all three lines are very close with the 50-day barely above the 200-day. It looks bullish for now, with a higher high.
https://schrts.co/KhGkiDFx
BmanVan, I understand being cautious. Everything went down and could go down again if the orange clown makes some more stupid remarks, which, is quite likely. So, I do expect a retest and possible move lower at some time this year. But the Canadian banks are less vulnerable to tariffs. They withstood the GFC better than any other global banks and did not cut their dividends. Arguably, this period of time is comparable to that crisis in terms of volatility but then it was more focused on systemic risk to global banking. Besides, I am not expecting any clarity on policy south of the border. Also, I don’t rely on seasonality even though it is a main feature of this site.
Fishfat, thanks for the great chart. I will try to replicate it. I like your use of the ADX with +DI and -DI. On my TD chart, the +DI is above the -DI (whereas this has a long way to go on ZEB.TO), with the ADX still descending, so questioning the strength of the trend, but I believe this reflects the recent volatility. What made you decide to use 4, 18 and 40 moving averages? And why use a 1.0 height on Ron/BC’s modified MACD?
It looks like you might have your breakout on the recent downtrend today. And the +DI made a higher high. Would you still wait for the 4-day EMA to cross above the 18-day EMA for further confirmation? Maybe too many questions…
I don’t really follow the ZEB.TO b/c I like to pick my poisons/banks. With this ETF, you get the worst along with the best, so it all evens out. But I will look at it more often now.
April 28th, 2025 at 5:55 pm
Thanks to all for your great insights and the site host.
Note that BNS stock is on verge of similar breakout.
This trend was set in advance by non-Bank financials – see for example, FFH.