The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on U.S. inflation. Consensus for April CPI and April PPI calls for rising rates that likely will dampen trader enthusiasm.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the first quarter of 2025 increased again last week after reported results exceeded consensus: 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. First quarter results have benefitted from purchases prior to implementation of tariffs. Consensus for first quarter earnings gains calls for a 13.4% increase on a year-over-year basis, up from 12.8% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth was unchanged at 4.8%.
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter once again were reduced significantly. Analysts responded to additional company updates. More companies withdrew guidance due to growing uncertainty related to proposed tariffs. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 5.2% from 5.7% last week. Largest declines were recorded by the energy sector. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.0%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 7.4% from 7.8% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 4.7%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 6.7% from 7.1% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains slipped to 5.2% from 5.3%.
For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 9.3%, down from 9.5% last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 4.9% from 5.0%.
For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 13.5%, up from 11.1% last week. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
April U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in March. Excluding food and energy, April CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% gain in March.
April U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.4% drop in March. Excluding food and energy, April PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in March.
May Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to -7.90 from -8.10 in April May Philly Fed Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to -9.9 from -26.4 in April.
April U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to be unchanged versus a 1.5% gain in March.
April U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 77.9 from 77.8%.in March. April Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.3% drop in March.
April U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 1.370 million units from1.324 million units in March
May Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 53.1 from 52.2 in April.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 9th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes last week
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P/TSE Energy iShares $XEG.TO moved above Cdn$15.95 setting an intermediate uptrend
Sun Life Financials $SLF.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$87.60 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Quarterly results nicely exceeded consensus.
Monster Beverages $MNST a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $61.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for May 10th
May 10 Episode – Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Omny.fm
Expect Stock Markets to Rally Over Short Term: Mark Leibovit
Expect Stock Markets to Rally Over Short Term – HoweStreet
BCE CEO discusses Q1 results and cut to quarterly dividend
BCE CEO discusses Q1 results and cut to quarterly dividend – YouTube
Finding The Next $5 Trillion Company: Dan Benton’s Rules For Tech Investing In 2025
Finding The Next $5 Trillion Company: Dan Benton’s Rules For Tech Investing In 2025 – YouTube
Gene Munster’s Mag7 Review: AI Enthusiasm & Tariff Impacts
Gene Munster’s Mag7 Review: AI Enthusiasm & Tariff Impacts – YouTube
“Long stocks, short bonds” Goldman Sachs
“Long stocks, short bonds” – YouTube
Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100? David Keller
Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
The market will continue to work its way higher, says CFRA’s Sam Stovall
The market will continue to work its way higher, says CFRA’s Sam Stovall – YouTube
Where the Market Goes Next: Key Resistance Levels + Top Bullish Stocks to Watch Now
Where the Market Goes Next: Key Resistance Levels + Top Bullish Stocks to Watch Now – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.40 on Friday and gained 5.80 last week to 62.20. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought by moving above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.80 on Friday and slipped 0.20 last week to 43.80. It remains Neutral.
The short term (20 days) Barometer peaked last week at 86.60 and dropped 2.00 on Friday to 77.20. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.59 on Friday and gained 15.14 last week to 74.77. It is Overbought. Daily uptrend was extended.
The long term Barometer added 1.83 on Friday and gained 7.34 last week to 61.01. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily uptrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Equity Clock Publications