Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 16th
Equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 20 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
S&P 500 futures slipped 4 points following release of U.S. April Housing Starts at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase to 1.370 million units from 1.324 million units in March. Actual was 1.361 million units
Today is the last trading day for listed May options, futures and futures options. Look for volume on North American exchanges to be significantly higher than average.
Applied Materials dropped $8.87 to $165.88 after reporting less than consensus fiscal second quarter revenues.
![clip_image001[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/clip_image0011-7.png "clip_image001[1]")
Take Two Interactive dropped $6.44 to $225.90 after reporting less than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/clip_image0021-8.png "clip_image002[1]")
Cava Group dropped $4.46 to $94.61 after reporting less than consensus first quarter profit margins.
![clip_image003[1]](https://timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/clip_image0031-6.png "clip_image003[1]")
Berkshire Hathaway recently completed significant changes in its investment portfolio. Additions included Constellation Brands (STZ), SCP Pool (POOL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Heico (HEI). Reductions included Citigroup ( C ), Bank of America (BAC) and Capital One (COF)
EquityClock’s Market Opinion for May 16th
Consumer is holding up, but are prioritizing purchases of essentials over discretionary goods. See:
https://equityclock.com/2025/05/15/stock-market-outlook-for-may-16-2025/
Technical Notes
TSX Composite Index moved above 25,875.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Trend improved from neutral to up.
IBM $IBM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $264.69 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
NetEase $NTES a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $114.00 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Charter Communications $CHTR an S&P 100 stock moved above $415.27 extending an intermediate uptrend.
SNC Lavalin $ATRL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$83.92 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 15th 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
How to Use Relative Strength in a Volatile Market: Joe Rabil
How to Use Relative Strength in a Volatile Market – YouTube
We could see a new low relative to the April low, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton
We could see a new low relative to the April low, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton – YouTube
After Rally in U.S. Stocks… 4 Red Flags Are Flashing: Tom Bowley
After Rally in U.S. Stocks… 4 Red Flags Are Flashing – YouTube
Looking at Mark Carney’s economic policies
Looking at Mark Carney’s economic policies – YouTube
S&P/TSX composite index hits intraday record
S&P/TSX composite index hits intraday record – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 8.80 to 73.20, a new recent high. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 4.20 to 55.60. It remains Neutral. Daily uptrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.11 to 77.88. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.76 to 64.98. It remains Overbought.
Next Tech Talk report
Next report is scheduled for release on Tuesday May 20th. The Toronto Exchange is closed on Monday.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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May 18th, 2025 at 4:24 pm
Has anyone watched Ciovacco’s latest video? I know many are calling for new lows or at least a retest of the recent low. Of course, anything is possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWaSeJyH-Sc&t=895s
May 18th, 2025 at 10:50 pm
Hi Paula
I have not changed my outlook, its still negative. Hard bad data will just start to come out in the next 3-4 weeks (at the earliest) so continue to watch this slow moving car crash. If we get through the summer and everything looks good, then it’s probably time to change the perspective.
May 19th, 2025 at 11:19 am
Paula, Bman/Van
I don’t share Ciovacco’s optimism. I am more in the camp with Bman/Van. The US tariff/trade war with the world has not changed materially and there is still lots of uncertainty overhang that could weigh on the markets.
May 19th, 2025 at 3:55 pm
Bman/Van and FishFat,
Thanks for your comments. I agree with your fundamental views and that the economic fallout has yet to show up in the hard data. However, the market is Not the economy and continues to advance despite all logic. In spite of the US debt downgrade and yields rising the market is still coming back from a weak open this morning. I recall that I felt bearish in 2017, due to the US political climate and missed out on a great market that year. I admit that I have trouble being patient and do have some FOMO.
I don’t feel confident that getting through the summer will change the situation, if anything the fall is when bad things usually happen…
I was struck with Ciovacco’s tone at one point in his video: he seemed defensive about the US market/economy still being the strongest in the world.
May 20th, 2025 at 8:15 am
I think there is too much complacency in the market. The negative effects of tariffs have not been priced in and they are coming by late June/July. We also have the fact of an extended P/E ratio on SPX. Josh Brown made an interesting case that tech earnings can hold up well compared to everything else. Who’s going to cut their Netflix account? Are you going to use the internet any less because of a slowdown? We are all chained to our tech devices and will not give them up. I can’t remember being this conservatively positioned in ages. My equity portion is mostly confined to Cdn banks. You can take a very long term approach but it feels terrible when everything drops 10 plus percent and you are fully invested with idea of riding it out.